Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

In that sense, my hat's off to CR for accurate reporting. CR's headline that NOA is not better than a human driver cannot be disputed, except here on TMC.

So the FUD worked on you.

CR’s review was not on NOA in general, only specifically on the new option to let it make changes without confirmation from the driver.

They let everyone get the impression that their negative review and safety concern was about NOA in general and the AP in general, which is the way it was picked up in the press. They said “hey that was not our intent, you misunderstand”, then went on CNBC to clarify and made it much, much worse (likely with some selective CNBC editing).

Please re-read the article and watch their little follow-up round table discussion video, the “pearl-clutching” one (my new favorite phrase). The Big Scary Thing to them was (unconfirmed) lane changes into left lane while a car in that lane was fast approaching. There may be corroboration for this behavior but I have not found it, and CR has supplied no video, nor said how they configured the lane change options, nor even exactly what software release they were running.

 

[JRP3]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

General Motors Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV disclosed to the state of Delaware earlier this year that they reached agreements to buy federal greenhouse gas credits from Tesla. While the filings are light on detail, they haven’t been reported on previously. They also represent the first acknowledgments from carmakers that they’re turning to Tesla for help to comply with intensifying U.S. environmental regulations.

 

[Vaamo]

I have way way way more fear that jaguar landrover will go bust by christmas (losing £3,600,000,000 a year right now) than any concerns about teslas future. JLR is a one trick pony (cars!) compared to energy + storage + autonomy + cars. Teslas sales grow dramatically each year, while ICE cars look an increasingly poor long term investment.
Eventually people will work out how many years left of ICE cars there are, and start depreciating those big ICE factories at a dramatically faster rate. Thats when traditional auto companies valuations are going to drop like a brick.

Is Jaguar loosing routinely 3.6 Billion pounds a year?
I thought that it is $3.4B loss, and circa $3.1B was due to writing down a bad investment in China, which leaves $300M negative. Maybe they want to write it off all at once coupled with another loss, in another words, PR management. Yes, it is still a lot.

As you know, Jaguar has a strong benefactor which can keep lights on, even if Jaguar will screw-up miserably, at least for some time.

Neroden suggested, that Tesla may have also some amount of bad debt, in connection to the automated production of battery packs, the first solution from summer 2018, that didn't work, which projects negatively into the Model 3 costs. Maybe it was better for Tesla to write it off all at once then(in retrospect), without spreading the costs further. Not a viable option now. It could help Model 3 margins, but the shorters would eat Tesla alive, one solarcity debt is enough

 

[sparcs]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

That is hilarious that GM is buying credits and they have one of the most "competitive" EV programs for years.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

it was few pages back, posted by RobStark, with a direct link

Thanks for the links - quite interesting although not surprising. It does terrify me people buying cars that cost more than they make per year. I remember a guy on Reddit announcing he was buying the Model 3 Performance ($75k with options) and he was earning $62k a year. It's a free country and everything, but this is how people get into trouble. I've never spent more than 25% of my annual income on a car - so yes I've owned some terrible cars in my youth!

 

[Dig deeper]

In a purely nominal sense that is true but that’s not how I calculate support levels. Fortunately it’s still the way many traders and computers do.

Most of us here know you have a special knak at trading $tsla (especially recently), and I think I remember you described your methodology a bit before. Would you mind sharing how you calculate support levels (it's okay if you want to keep it a secret)?

Also are you planning to see a change in trend/momentum before jumping in or are you waiting for 140-150, as you previously stated?

 

[Electroman]

I cannot possibly believe these financial people are really, truly that stupid.

I often see references to these analysts and short sellers being dumb and stupid. Actually they are very very cunningly smart. Deviously smart.

The idea is simple. Constantly keep beating the drum beat of exaggerated and fake bad news everyday, so that the public gets scared, loses faith and stops buying their cars. Once that happens, it is an easy downward spiral and all the fake doom and gloom actually becomes a reality. It is as simple as that. The best way to bring a company down is to spread rumors about the product and company.

So this latest FUD is to scare the prospective buyers - don't even think of buying their cars hoping that some company will rescue at some point.

 

[Drumheller]

No, Likley not But this is not my first post here and I did what I asked so I want to know

And yes Likely here I will be considered Stupid

Buy the car. You'll love driving it and you will be directly sending money into Tesla

 

[VValleyEV]

AP2 is Model S/X, AP2.5 is Model 3. Only hardware difference is the interior view camera on the Model 3 (with an eye toward supporting use on TN).

Threads I have found say there was a cutover from AP2 to AP2.5 for S/X in Oct 2017. My MS was manufactured late Feb 2018, and I recall finding some web tool that I ran on the car web browser that verified AP2.5, but it could be just looking at the VIN.

Not sure what the real differences were/are on S/X. I have read that processing power was increased, and that cameras were changed from b&w to color. Since I paid for FSD, hopefully it won’t matter once the HW3 upgrade gets installed.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

OT: Sorry, I should have been more explicit. Lane 1 is passing lane when there's 2 or more lanes. Lane 4 in my example is slow lane.

California Driver Handbook - Traffic Lanes

Choosing A Lane
Traffic lanes are often referred to by number. The left or “fast” lane is called the “Number 1 Lane.” The lane to the right of the “Number 1 Lane” is called the “Number 2 Lane,” then the “Number 3 Lane,” etc.

Example of numbered traffic lanes

Wow I didn't realize that specific language was in the driver's handbook. No wonder people drive like idiots here.

Typically lanes 1 and 2 above should be refereed to as the "passing" lanes, as in you should only be in them if you're passing traffic in a lane to your right. That's how I was taught to drive (clearly not here ) but if people had that mentality, traffic would likely move a lot more smoothly. The problem with calling it the "fast" lane is that it either implies the lane to break the speed limit, or (worse) implies the other lanes are "slow(er)". Designating them passing lanes makes it clear that you go into them to pass, then return to the lane furthest to the right when it's clear and safe to do so.

Obviously in really heavy traffic people spread out and should stay where they are, also you should generally move to the middle when traffic is merging at highway speed.

Sorry, this was so OT...

 

[EVMeister]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Looks at all this "free cash" coming Tesla's way. Looks at stock price. Wishes had some spare change to buy more.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla does not even like doing MCU upgrades, which are technically possible and which they have done for quite a few people.

@neroden Do you have a link to where Tesla has done any MCU upgrades? I didn't think they have even done a single MCU1 to MCU2 upgrade. (Or are you talking about MCU1 without Nav to MCU1 with Nav upgrades?)

 

[Wooloomooloo]

I often see references to these analysts and short sellers being dumb and stupid. Actually they are very very cunningly smart. Deviously smart.

The idea is simple. Constantly keep beating the drum beat of exaggerated and fake bad news everyday, so that the public gets scared, loses faith and stops buying their cars. Once that happens, it is an easy downward spiral and all the fake doom and gloom actually becomes a reality. It is as simple as that. The best way to bring a company down is to spread rumors about the product and company.

So this latest FUD is to scare the prospective buyers - don't even think of buying their cars hoping that some company will rescue at some point.

It's also worth bearing in mind that a lot of Wall Street analysts have been grossly misrepresented by the media, and (some of) the media are only interested in clicks, they really don't care about reality either. So even when they say pretty rational things, it gets distorted and people get triggered without doing their own research.

For example, the Adam Jonas $10 story (which was BS) and even people here who say they're informed fell for it. The fact that his Bull target is $370 and bear target is $225 (higher than it was when the story broke) flew over everyone's heads, because NO ONE seems to be able to have a rational debate about this.

 

[Nocturnal]

It's also worth bearing in mind that a lot of Wall Street analysts have been grossly misrepresented by the media, and (some of) the media are only interested in clicks, they really don't care about reality either. So even when they say pretty rational things, it gets distorted and people get triggered without doing their own research.

For example, the Adam Jonas $10 story (which was BS) and even people here who say they're informed fell for it. The fact that his Bull target is $370 and bear target is $225 (higher than it was when the story broke) flew over everyone's heads, because NO ONE seems to be able to have a rational debate about this.

Yes but it's not like those analysts are naïve and don't expect this sort of thing. I have zero doubts that Jonas knew that the $10 number would be the one that the headlines picked up, and that is probably why he picked it.

 

[ZachF]

Is Jaguar loosing routinely 3.6 Billion pounds a year?
I thought that it is $3.4B loss, and circa $3.1B was due to writing down a bad investment in China, which leaves $300M negative. Maybe they want to write it off all at once coupled with another loss, in another words, PR management. Yes, it is still a lot.

As you know, Jaguar has a strong benefactor which can keep lights on, even if Jaguar will screw-up miserably, at least for some time.

Neroden suggested, that Tesla may have also some amount of bad debt, in connection to the automated production of battery packs, the first solution from summer 2018, that didn't work, which projects negatively into the Model 3 costs. Maybe it was better for Tesla to write it off all at once then(in retrospect), without spreading the costs further. Not a viable option now. It could help Model 3 margins, but the shorters would eat Tesla alive, one solarcity debt is enough

The Indians seem to be making a collection of old British brands as a form of post-colonial revenge.

 

[ZachF]

I often see references to these analysts and short sellers being dumb and stupid. Actually they are very very cunningly smart. Deviously smart.

The idea is simple. Constantly keep beating the drum beat of exaggerated and fake bad news everyday, so that the public gets scared, loses faith and stops buying their cars. Once that happens, it is an easy downward spiral and all the fake doom and gloom actually becomes a reality. It is as simple as that. The best way to bring a company down is to spread rumors about the product and company.

So this latest FUD is to scare the prospective buyers - don't even think of buying their cars hoping that some company will rescue at some point.

It's called "Short and Distort" the mirror of "Pump and Dump"

 

[sunny-value]

Question If you buy a Tesla or any EV with cash you have made from shorting Tesla common equity are you a good person or a bad person Clearly you are fighting the climate issues, but you are profiting of the decline in the equity price

Also, while I agree with you I do not like hearing criticism of Wall Street only when the equity goes down, unless you can show praise of wall street when it was up

Go Tesla

Well if you buy a Tesla with cash from selling drugs to children I might say the good you are doing is outweighed by how you got your money. Not so sure who you took the money from by shorting the stock. People who bought it too high or just had temporarily unlucky timing? In my book you're slightly on the good side (and smart). Plus you're sending money to Tesla from the stock market. What good is a high stock price if the company doesn't get any of it...

 

[VValleyEV]

Model S/X can be AP1, AP2, AP2.5 and AP3.
Model 3 can be AP2.5 and AP3.
FSD Computer is included in AP3.
AP2 and AP2.5 can be upgraded to AP3 eventually by changing the computer by the FSD computer (but AP2 will keep it's lower color definition cameras).

The main difference between AP2 and AP2.5 is the quality of cameras and the internal bus. I believe there is something different in the radar, but cannot remember now.

The main difference between AP2 / AP2.5 and AP3 is the FSD computer.

Here is something I have been wanting to ask:

Elon let it be known at autonomy day (perhaps unwisely?) that there is yet a newer FSD chip coming beyond the one in HW3, and that this new one will be even better in performance/capabilities. I understand that cars currently being shipped have HW3 with the new FSD chip, and cars with AP2/2.5 that have purchased the FSD option will get HW3 as an upgrade.

Lets give the name “HW4” to AP hardware based on this yet-to-be-released FSD Chip. The questions are (and probably no one knows):

1. Will the FSD option purchased with cars being delivered now with HW3 guarantee an upgrade to HW4?
2. Will cars that get upgraded to HW3, because of prior FSD purchase, get upgraded again to HW4?

 

[ZachF]

We gonna break 180?

The sales/production report can't come fast enough....

 

[jbcarioca]

Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.

Some of us who might claim such encyclopedic knowledge of all those subject would be guilty of hubris or worse. Even the most capable and diligent human beings could not justifiably claim such knowledge.

That said, seriously diligent and capable people of normal intelligence are quite capable of making "...pretty accurate predictions..." in a fairly short term. Longer term there are too many variables for any human being to be "pretty accurate" except in an exceedingly narrow respect. Even the famously prescient people and most successful forecasters such as Leonardo da Vinci, Albert Einstein, Thomas Edison and Warren Buffet have had much less accuracy than would be needed to suggest anything other than huge success in some areas.

Honestly it seems almost impossible for anybody to think they know what will happen regarding BEV adoption in general, much less TSLA. All of us probably have deep conviction about what should happen if mankind can thrive. Deep conviction and highly convincing scientific evidence are obviously insufficient.

Personally, I spend most of my time assessing risks. Some people suggest I am quite good at that, and some invest according to my disclosed views. I have consistently been beating most securities market indices for quite a few years. Even so, I'll never suggest that my future results will reflect my past ones.
Thus, the last year has been my worst in two decades, partly because of my TSLA position, partly because of extraneous foreign exchange movements. Despite that I am adjusting very little, because I expect longer term positive results.

However, my own optimism is seriously constrained by my extreme pessimism regarding geopolitical disarray brought about by a quite small number of influential but incompetent government leaders in crucial parts of the world. The previous sentence is beyond my ability to judge, but the effects of that situation are far beyond anything I can conceive to predicting with even minimal accuracy. Therefore I expect to do well enough to survive financially, certainly avoiding personal catastrophe.

All of us investing in TSLA are quite exposed to the consequences of politically-controlled economic decisions. For my part I am quite convinced that Tesla is already making major decisions that will reduce these external negative consequences. GF-3, subsequent GF's and continuing innovation will serve us very well, I think. The primary constraint is certainly how long Tesla will need to decrease the present inordinate dependency on US sales and production.

Dealing with all the issues responsibly and competently still will not assure any reasonably accurate long term forecasts. Such will only reduce the consequences of errors.