Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Spacemanspliff]

They are being registered as S75D, S100D and X100D. Raven should be SR and LR, right? Also I have not heard of any Raven deliveries in Europe yet.

Didn't Tesla switch to calling them SR and LR prior to Raven? (except SR didn't exist until they brought it back) article dated Jan 29th:
Tesla Changes Model S & X Trims & Pricing, Drops Names Based On Battery Sizes | CleanTechnica

Model S 2019 update (raven) leveringen

This is in dutch I believe but some have Raven delivery dates of the 21st as well as some stating homologation issues that will be resolved by Monday. So its either close to happening or happening currently.

Don't know the story on Norway.

 

[neroden]

The S&P500 is limited to 500 companies. For TSLA to get included, someone would have to be dropped from the index. Who to drop and why may be a big part of the decision process. What are your thoughts on how this might work?

Oh, this is standard -- they always drop the companies with the lowest market cap. (Sometimes a company has gone private or gotten merged out of existence and they drop them, obviously.) The smallest companies in the S&P 500 right now have a market cap of around $5 billion -- TSLA's market cap is way higher than that so TSLA would displace them.

FYI, the S&P currently has 505 companies, and I've seen it with anywhere from 490 to 510. They let the total change when there are mergers, spinoffs, etc. and they "reset" it to 500 only when they have another meeting.

EDIT: at the moment it has 505 *stock classes* but only 500 companies, due to companies with multiple share classes (sigh) -- apparently their policy is to list all the share classes for such a company, if they all satisfy the liquidity criterion (which is apparently why BRK.A isn't included).

 

[neroden]

It's not a one time charge though to add extra capacity. Power companies will bill commercially for having to maintain that equipment to provide that MAXIMUM capacity at any time, and those charges are recurring. So the apartment complex would be paying some amount per month extra whether the charging is utilized at all, maybe 10-15% of the overall charges IF it was used to max capacity. So if it were only used 10-15% of the time the energy would cost twice as much.

Small, napkin calc at 0.10 x Kwh says $50 a month per unit so not at all insignificant.

The cost structures of different utility companies are different. Demand peaking charges are often a thing at high power levels, yes -- this is where batteries come in.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Thanks for the info. Do you know if they're selling them at a substantial discount to clear the inventory for Raven S and X? Just curious.

They offer discounts of €11,000 to €15,000 on cars with a list price of about €90,000 to 100,000. I'd say the average discount is 15%.

 

[Nocturnal]

The cost structures of different utility companies are different. Demand peaking charges are often a thing at high power levels, yes -- this is where batteries come in.

It's not really an issue anyway as Peak prices can be adjusted. Time of Use pricing is coming everywhere sooner or later. Absolutely batteries help mitigate this and utilities are really starting to figure this out. Peaker plants are very expensive to run.

 

[Frank Einstein]

My understanding (possibly incorrect) is that they just drop the company with the lowest current market cap. They wouldn't have been lowest if they weren't underperforming, since companies always come in above the bottom.

Does that mean a company that drops from the S&P loses a lot of market cap due to no longer being supported by index funds? Trouble in store for News Corporation? S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

I'd love it if Tesla is the reason News Corp gets booted from the SP500. A man can dream...

 

[StealthP3D]

Amazing. A New Yorker whose entire wealth is really poorly managing his parents' money.

Good point. If Spiegel had an ounce of integrity he would have named his fund "Stanphyl Crapital". I wonder how mom and dad feel about having such a poorly performing fund named after them?

 

[neroden]

A simple normal wall socket for each parking spot would be plenty, given that people could just charge overnight.

Gien that normal wall sockets in Germany are 230 V 16 amps... including the 80% derating factor for continuous loads... that's about "10 miles per hour" of charging for a Model 3. 10 hours of overnight charging would get you about 100 miles. Some people would want faster charging, but that would be plenty for a lot of people. Could install a couple of heavier circuits.

The main issue appears to be the apartment builder's assumption that everyone would be using all the sockets at max rate all the time, which is not realistic. While it is certainly possible to buy enough electric service to cover that use case (as I demonstrated), it would make more sense to make rational assumptions regarding customer usage, and have load balancers so that everyone could plug in, but the rates of charging would drop if everyone was pulling power at once. I mean, even Tesla does this with its Superchargers. Most of the time, most people will be drawing nothing -- either their car is being driven, or their batteries will already be full, So only a few people will be pulling full power. Occasionally lots of people will be plugged in, and they can all have lower rates of charging until some of them fill up.

 

[mekberg]

Yeah, and I bet that within 10 years they'll retrofit even higher capacity EV charging stations, for these apartments to simply stay competitive in the post-ICE rental market, at ten times the expense...

Dealing with this right now as a board member of my condo building.

Building is from late 1800s - converted to condos in 1999. Getting suitable supply to the parking garage with a sub-panel is going to cost roughly $30k. From there it will be up to unit owners to pay for the line/conduit from the sub-panel to their parking space. I suspect we'll get push back from many owners, but three of the five board members own Model 3s so it's likely to happen.

 

[sixela]

It's not a one time charge though to add extra capacity. Power companies will bill commercially for having to maintain that equipment to provide that MAXIMUM capacity at any time, and those charges are recurring. So the apartment complex would be paying some amount per month extra whether the charging is utilized at all, maybe 10-15% of the overall charges IF it was used to max capacity. So if it were only used 10-15% of the time the energy would cost twice as much.

Small, napkin calc at 0.10 x Kwh says $50 a month per unit so not at all insignificant.

If they have 100 apartments then they could install less capacity, e.g. 8amp*3*230V per car, but 100 chargers. Everyone could plug in at the same time (more practical than having 20 chargers and asking your neighbour to unplug at night!) but amperage would only be maximal when not all slots are used. After all, Tesla does that on Superchargers. I suspect they could even do load balancing for the entire apartment complex, directing a lot of power only to the chargers when there is unnused capacity in the apartments. Most people charge at night, and most people do not cook and burn lights at night ;-).

Lots of solutions that are better than "this is impossible" and cheaper than giving everyone 11-20kW of dedicated power for a car to charge.

 

[neroden]

Also, kids don't have much of a choice: high school only education is a stigma for life in most of the western world, closing many, many doors in life.

I.e. while college education is not an income guarantee anymore, not having a degree is a guarantee of much reduced opportunities.

Yes. There are a lot of stories of things like Starbucks literally rejecting anyone without a college degree... for a barista job.

It's just used as a filter to refuse to hire people. Nothing to do with whether you use any skills from college.

Really messed up.

 

[jerry33]

The cost structures of different utility companies are different. Demand peaking charges are often a thing at high power levels, yes -- this is where batteries come in.

Peakers have a lot of political clout, which is why Texas considers batteries to be power generators rather than power storage.

 

[Papafox]

In a nutshell Ihor predicts that a S&P inclusion will likely result in a short squeeze. @Papafox did point out in his analysis that is not likely.

I am aware this has been discussed many times in this forum but would like to understand what are the circumstances or lowest profits required for Tesla in Q2 to be added.

Not sure of a squeeze will ever happen but a lot of oddness happened with the SP and I expect good and solid numbers to be released.

I heard many motivated quite opposite opinions about that topic. Looking forward to some guidance.

Thanks

Let me clarify slightly...
I think the chance of a Q2 that's good enough for S&P 500 inclusion is a longshot, so I wouldn't base my investment strategy on it. I also said that it's not impossible, so you really don't want to be on the sidelines and suddenly be surprised if TSLA takes off. Keeping a longer-term investment strategy will likely serve you well with TSLA. Whether we see a rapid departure of shorts from TSLA when S&P500 inclusion happens or we see a slow climb that puts pressure on the shorts when the SP returns to the 300s, I can't tell you. I know I want to be invested when it happens, though!

As for today's trading, I really expected to see a mandatory morning dip (MMD) and the shorts didn't let us down by passing on their dirty tricks today. Right now the upper bollinger band is sitting a bit above 231, and I'd be very pleased if we see a small climb today that brings us close to the upper-bb. We really want to see TSLA climb through the 240s in order to prove to the technical traders that the downtrend has been vanquished. Such a move would then open the doors for institutional investors to start moving money back into TSLA without being accused of being too footloose with a volatile stock. Slow and sure is the way to go now. Big climbs above the upper bollinger band like we saw yesterday are just an invitation for traders to make money pushing the SP back down to below the upper bb.

 

[neroden]

I have been corrected. It looks like there is a system to multiply user input on the wheel and that is turned off. The actual wheels are turning a very small amount. (new video was release)

If robotaxis actually work, at that point used Teslas will be impossible to find. CPOs will also be impossible. I'm not convinced that new Teslas will be possible to acquire either, at least until production can ramp up by several multiples. ​

I doubt that the Pickups will be used for robotaxis, so I'm pretty sure it will be possible to buy new Teslas. Pickups, anyway.

And yes, the Pickup is going to be out before the robotaxis work.​

 

[AlexS]

If they have 100 apartments then they could install less capacity, e.g. 8amp*3*230V per car, but 100 chargers. Everyone could plug in at the same time (more practical than having 20 chargers and asking your neighbour to unplug at night!) but amperage would only be maximal when not all slots are used. After all, Tesla does that on Superchargers. I suspect they could even do load balancing for the entire apartment complex, directing a lot of power only to the chargers when there is unnused capacity in the apartments. Most people charge at night, and most people do not cook and burn lights at night ;-).

Lots of solutions that are better than "this is impossible" and cheaper than giving everyone 11-20kW of dedicated power for a car to charge.

Just install Tesla Power Packs and problem solved. Charge power packs during the day and use that power to charge cars during the night

 

[StealthP3D]

Tesla would be smart to be cautious about Chinese demand at high volumes until they know the answer for sure.

Tesla is very cautious about Chinese demand as evidenced by them building a factory with a planned maximum output of only 500K cars/year.

 

[Artful Dodger]

sum(q3+q4+q1+q2) > ~$251.14m

No, I don't think so. More like Q3 + Q4 + Q1 = -250M
so we need Q2 >= 250M
then the sum of the last 4 quarters > 0, ie: net profitable.

Agreed it's based on GAAP profitability: (h/t to @Boomer19 for S&P link upthread)

Financial Viability. Eligibility differs depending on the index:

• S&P Total Market Index. There is no financial viability requirement for index eligibility.
• S&P Composite 1500. The sum of the most recent four consecutive quarters’ Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) earnings (net income excluding discontinued operations) should be positive as should the most recent quarter. For equity real estate investment trusts (REITs), financial viability is based on GAAP earnings and/or Funds From Operations (FFO), if reported. FFO is a measure commonly used in equity REIT analysis.

This clause specifies the '1500 index, but it includes the S&P 500, so this clause should also apply. Here's the wording:

S&P Composite Indices
Index Construction. Each index is constructed by combining the respective underlying indices as follows:

• S&P Composite 1500. The index is a combination of the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, and S&P SmallCap 600.

 

[neroden]

Does that mean a company that drops from the S&P loses a lot of market cap due to no longer being supported by index funds? Trouble in store for News Corporation? S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

I'd love it if Tesla is the reason News Corp gets booted from the SP500. A man can dream...

Yes, News Corporation is pretty likely to drop out of the S&P. However, Nordstrom, Gap, Under Armour, Macerich, and Affiliated Managers Group may be more likely to drop out. I'd actually bet on Macerich, which invests in physical retail shopping centers.

 

[StealthP3D]

That's sensible, they wouldn't want to have side by side comparisons of Fremont made and Shanghai made units with the exact same intended capabilities, because the probability that they are exactly the same is very low, and someone is going to have buyer's remorse in China: either the guy of the Fremont-made SR+ who bought it for significantly more money, or the guy who bought the Shanghai-made SR+ and isn't getting U.S. quality yet.

The Chinese Model 3's will be even higher quality than the US made ones. There will be a little variation as the first ones come off the line, just as there was in Freemont, but that will quickly diminish as their machines and processes are calibrated and the end result will be even better.

 

[mongo]

No, I don't think so. More like Q3 + Q4 + Q1 = -250M
so we need Q2 >= 250M
then the sum of the last 4 quarters > 0, ie: net profitable.

@Fact Checking used too much short hand

sum(q3+q4+q1+q2) > ~$251.14m

should have been
sum(q3+q4+q1+q2) > 0 thus q2 >= $251.14m