Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Elon proba

Counter to this is the problem of when to start. Prices keep falling so the impulse is not to invest but to wait for the better deal. Is there a tipping point?

Technically we've already passed the tipping point, hence the vast majority of new global electricity capacity is now wind or solar. The reason we don't see it on a daily basis in most markets is it's not terribly cheap for consumers(homeowners with rooftop solar).

I would say Tesla has pushed us past the residential tipping point now that their pricing for solar is lean and likely to just drop at 2-6% per year. Sourcing rooftop solar for you home(at the right price) now saves you so much money in year 1 that waiting another year actually costs you more money in lost savings. That certainly wasn't always true in the past.

 

[neroden]

Elon proba

Technically we've already passed the tipping point, hence the vast majority of new global electricity capacity is now wind or solar. The reason we don't see it on a daily basis in most markets is it's not terribly cheap for consumers(homeowners with rooftop solar).

I would say Tesla has pushed us past the residential tipping point now that their pricing for solar is lean and likely to just drop at 2-6% per year. Sourcing rooftop solar for you home(at the right price) now saves you so much money in year 1 that waiting another year actually costs you more money in lost savings. That certainly wasn't always true in the past.

The tipping point is very much geographic. Waiting is a financial mistake in California or Hawaii, and even in Philadelphia, but not necessarily in North Dakota yet.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We seem to be dismissing the fact that the 2020 election has essentially just started.

The last ITC extension came almost completely out of the blue. What makes us think that won't happen again? Or a de-capping of the EV tax credit? Both seem possible-likely prior to Nov 2020.

Imagine that squeeze.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Does that mean a company that drops from the S&P loses a lot of market cap due to no longer being supported by index funds? Trouble in store for News Corporation? S&P 500 Companies - S&P 500 Index Components by Market Cap

I'd love it if Tesla is the reason News Corp gets booted from the SP500. A man can dream...

I hate to be the one to squash your dream, but News Corp has two classes of stock in the index. Combined they rank around 475, so not in real danger of being dropped.

Nordstrom, Gap and Macerich would be the most likely candidates. All retail related. Of course corporate actions like mergers (and the occasional BK) remove companies from the list from time to time so there's no telling how it will look if/when TSLA qualifies.

 

[Curt Renz]

Electrek - 6 minutes ago: Tesla is considering giving away Full Self-Driving for free as part of the referral program - Electrek

 

[Nocturnal]

Tesla slips to third place for solar installations in the U.S., Sunrun keeps lead

Do we know why Tesla solar isn't running on all cylinders? Until the solar roof comes and powerwalls are easily available out I expect moderate growth but it seems like they are lagging. I know the change from the leasing to buying model slowed them down quite a bit.

It's funny, but as much as we joke about constantly talking Tesla, I still have friends that don't realize I have one. I don't talk about it quite so much at work as there are large disparities in income between consultants and some employees but just had a co-worker/friend say "oh, I heard that you had or were getting a Tesla, I want to get one for my wife."
"yeah man, I've had it for almost a year, I'll give you a ride tomorrow. Recommend!" He has always been a BMW guy so it's nice to see another change teams.

Electrek - 6 minutes ago: Tesla is considering giving away Full Self-Driving for free as part of the referral program - Electrek

Wow. I wonder if that is a push to get more referrals (I wouldn't think so) or a desire to get more FSD data and more FSD cars out there.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The tipping point is very much geographic. Waiting is a financial mistake in California or Hawaii, and even in Philadelphia, but not necessarily in North Dakota yet.

I think Tesla Energy is very much aware of this and it's now driving their pricing. Philadelphia online quotes are $2.50/W, drive 5 minutes over the bridge into New Jersey and it's $2.85/W.

PA is a fracking state with no state subsidy(and considerable sabotage). NJ has tons of state subsidy. These factors used to influence which big installers worked which regions. They basically scooped up the tax credits and handed them to their salespeople. That's what kept pricing from getting leaner as hardware costs dropped and markets matured.

Tesla is now doing the opposite. Rather than leeching off gov't subsidies, Tesla is using their pricing as a means to flatten out regional pricing and neutralize anti-solar actors at the state level. Simple and genius.

 

[LJS22]

Tesla slips to third place for solar installations in the U.S., Sunrun keeps lead

Do we know why Tesla solar isn't running on all cylinders? Until the solar roof comes and powerwalls are easily available out I expect moderate growth but it seems like they are lagging. I know the change from the leasing to buying model slowed them down quite a bit.

It's funny, but as much as we joke about constantly talking Tesla, I still have friends that don't realize I have one. I don't talk about it quite so much at work as there are large disparities in income between consultants and some employees but just had a co-worker/friend say "oh, I heard that you had or were getting a Tesla, I want to get one for my wife."
"yeah man, I've had it for almost a year, I'll give you a ride tomorrow. Recommend!" He has always been a BMW guy so it's nice to see another change teams.

I think Elon said it was a battery constraint issue with the powerwalls and the tiles being difficult to test and get right for long term sustainability.

It’s funny that guys always ask about Tesla’s with the caveat that they are getting it for their wife...it’s the new “a friend was asking” line for Tesla’s haha

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla slips to third place for solar installations in the U.S., Sunrun keeps lead

Do we know why Tesla solar isn't running on all cylinders? Until the solar roof comes and powerwalls are easily available out I expect moderate growth but it seems like they are lagging. I know the change from the leasing to buying model slowed them down quite a bit.

It's funny, but as much as we joke about constantly talking Tesla, I still have friends that don't realize I have one. I don't talk about it quite so much at work as there are large disparities in income between consultants and some employees but just had a co-worker/friend say "oh, I heard that you had or were getting a Tesla, I want to get one for my wife."
"yeah man, I've had it for almost a year, I'll give you a ride tomorrow. Recommend!" He has always been a BMW guy so it's nice to see another change teams.

Pop over the the Tesla Energy forum, there's plenty of discussion there.

Tesla put their new plan in place a couple months ago and IMO will almost certainly drift back up to #1. Goldman upgraded Sunrun this week on "solid growth". Never mind SolarCity had even greater growth using the same model and Sunrun is losing millions each quarter.

Costs per install are actually rising at Vivint and Sunrun, which is why I see Tesla acquiring SUN within 2 yrs and Vivint just petering out to nothing.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wow. I wonder if that is a push to get more referrals (I wouldn't think so) or a desire to get more FSD data and more FSD cars out there.

More likely the desire for more clicks -- redFay's been getting raked lately, and is likely hurting.

 

[Nocturnal]

I think Elon said it was a battery constraint issue with the powerwalls and the tiles being difficult to test and get right for long term sustainability.

It’s funny that guys always ask about Tesla’s with the caveat that they are getting it for their wife...it’s the new “a friend was asking” line for Tesla’s haha

In his case it's because he travels full time for work. He doesn't have a car for himself because he takes ubers to and from the airport at home and uses the family vehicle on the weekend.

 

[SOULPEDL]

I feel like the market for pre-Autopilot Model Ses is weaker than it should be. I think many sellers are pricing according to a standard depreciation curve, which is an error (they can get more money than that).

No, the depreciation on the pre Oct 2016 models is expected as they don't have self-drive equipment. That was a show stopper for me. I never considered an older Tesla for that reason. Stands to reason, there would be a price cliff on that month/yr. Horse... not a horse. IMO, that continued messaging will eventually sink the older ones like any other EV, maybe not as much because of the Brand value.

I once considered rebuilding an old POS Harley, just cuz the name. Had I done that and kept it, however, it might have been worth some coin (this was back in the 70s and it was old). So hold on to that 2012 MS... never know with car collectors. I think our LR RWD will be a collector - it was the first M3.

 

[Curt Renz]

Macro-market has been shoved downward during the first half of this hour. Traders may be de-risking before the FOMC announcement when the hour ends. Meanwhile, TSLA although similarly affected has been relatively more stable.

 

[Mike Smith]

Looks like we're starting to see very slow net short covering. If short interest momentum is seen to have shifted it should be very hard for shorts to launch concerted attacks. Shorts aren't all in cahoots, and many would look to take advantage of any attacks as an opportunity to cover.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

 

[Tslynk67]

What is your reasoning that those are all Pre Raven.

Because they are all pre-Raven model numbers:

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Because they are all pre-Raven model numbers:

See my reply a few pages back.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

See my reply a few pages back.

Model number doesn’t likely mean anything otherwise they haven’t sold an S/X built in the last 4 months.

I’m not saying Ravens have been delivered but Tesla changed to LR/SR naming in January.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Electrek - 6 minutes ago: Tesla is considering giving away Full Self-Driving for free as part of the referral program - Electrek

From the article, "Tesla and Musk have often noted that the referral program is one of the company’s biggest tools for demand generation."

Doesn't this fly in the face of "we don't advertise because there is no demand issue."

Sometimes I think he's just avoiding commercials just to be different and special - it reinforces that God-like feeling. You can't tell me that a longer backlog doesn't bode well for the company in either pricing or overall borrowing power and growth.

On the other hand, there really might be something to getting more FSD data (as another member already pointed out). Plus it's even cheaper than free charging, as long as people don't avoid purchasing FSD in hopes of landing a referral ASAP.

 

[Mike Smith]

From the article, "Tesla and Musk have often noted that the referral program is one of the company’s biggest tools for demand generation."

Doesn't this fly in the face of "we don't advertise because there is no demand issue."

Sometimes I think he's just avoiding commercials just to be different and special - it reinforces that God-like feeling. You can't tell me that a longer backlog doesn't bode well for the company in either pricing or overall borrowing power and growth.

On the other hand, there really might be something to getting more FSD data (as another member already pointed out). Plus it's even cheaper than free charging, as long as people don't avoid purchasing FSD in hopes of landing a referral ASAP.

The 'no demand problem' claim takes into account all the efforts they put into generating demand, such as the referral program. Traditional advertising is being saved as a final demand lever, but until it is needed it's more valuable to maintain the 'our cars are so great we don't need to advertise' narrative (which is essentially free advertising).

 

[Doggydogworld]

Norway is already at 253 for the day, so this may become the first 300 day of the quarter. Model 3 is still only LR and P, which is a positive sign. And with the arrival of SR+ the daily numbers will probably explode. Also every day 25 to 30 pre-Raven X and S get a new owner in Norway. The inventory of these cars in Europe, which was still pretty large 1-2 months ago, is dwindling fast. In The Netherlands there are 42 left out of the 700+ we saw two months ago. I doubt Tesla will have many left at the end of the quarter.

Yes, the final EOQ surge looks to be underway. I don't expect it to be as crazy as Q1 with only one ship arriving in the last half-month vs three last time around. They have fewer cars to deliver, but should be able to deliver a higher percentage of them by EOQ.

They sold 48 S/X in the Netherlands this quarter, so those 700 pre-Ravens must have gone elsewhere. It's always difficult to pin Tesla down when it comes to inventory. I expect Q2 European S/X sales to be a little above Q1's 3175.