Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Over 2M shares traded in the first 18.5 minutes.

EDIT: 10:00 AM report:
4.05M traded in the first 30 minutes.
Upper-BB is now at 235.28 (just below today's low of 236.06)
Mid-BB about to cross over MA(50) - 50Day Moving Avg

Gonna be a LARGE day. Shortz-es are spending HUGE now in a futile effort to stop the tide.
Not counting on 'filling the gap' today with these strong volumes.

EDIT2: That's 5.0M shares in the first 40 minutes.
EDIT3: 6.615M in the first hour of trading.

Cheers!

 

[pnungesser]

Another big problem with American cars in Japan is size in particular: they are (way) too large, and they are also gas guzzlers, which is a problem in Japan that has $4+ gallon-equivent gas prices, which are comparable to European gasoline prices.

But the Model 3's form factor has been designed with Japan in mind I think:

Watch Tesla Model 3 Enter Automated Conveyor Parking System​

... and the relative rarity of foreign brands in Japan could make it a very, very popular choice of a premium car. BMW and Mercedes are selling 60k-60k units there per year after all.

Another plus is the frugal minimalist interior of the Model 3, which IMHO matches Japanese cultural norms and expectations better than the typically rather Rococo German car interior.

I mean, what rhymes better with:

​

This:

or this:

View attachment 425918​

?

So I concur with @Thekiwi that Japan could be a positive surprise, and I'm very curious how Model 3 demand is going to evolve in Japan. Maybe @hiroshiy can offer some insight?

And Japan already has a well developed network of superchargers. Not exactly a new market.

 

[mariaaa]

Why is the stock going down? We should be at 260$ at least.

 

[imherkimer]

Buyer : Hi, I'm thinking about an e-tron and a Tesla
E-tron dealer : E-tron is far better
Buyer : What can you tell me about your fart app? I hear Tesla's is really good.
E-tron dealer : Uh, we don't have a fart app
Buyer : I'm no longer interested in e-tron

Fart app could be especially important for Audi in this case: It will let people around know that an Etron is coming. Better get out of the way!

 

[Boomer19]

Over 2M shares traded in the first 18.5 minutes.

i show ~5.2m as of right now!

and they’re doing a decent job spinning it as a ‘no big deal’ - what a joke
as expected, though.
i’m a pessimist, but i own tsla like an optimist. never-ending war with myself

 

[sundaymorning]

Mid morning range seems to be 236-241, let’s see if we can close above $240s?

 

[Fact Checking]

Why is the stock going down? We should be at 260$ at least.

Right now it's going up nicely, thank you very much:

 

[Silentk]

i show ~5.2m as of right now!

and they’re doing a decent job spinning it as a ‘no big deal’ - what a joke
as expected, though.
i’m a pessimist, but i own tsla like an optimist. never-ending war with myself

 

[FrankSG]

Why is the stock going down? We should be at 260$ at least.

For reference, the stock dropped to 270$ after 'disastrous' Q1 deliveries were announced. I agree, it doesn't make sense.

 

[neroden]

@neroden do you believe there will be any meaningful hangover in Q3 from the lower tax credit in the US (and demand pulled forward into Q2)?

Probably, but non US backlog is so big it will be hard to notice. If you see low US numbers from Insideevs, do not worry.

 

[LN1_Casey]

You're on the far end of the scale from large to small investors.
For less small investors a high stock price works against a popular investment strategy for stocks with high volatility and no dividends.
I.e. Buy 100 shares ($ 24,000) and sell 1 call option (e.g. TSLA 17 jan 2020 $ 310,00) @ $ 1,300.
Wait for the options to expire worthless in January (5% return) or stock to rise above $ 310 by then (29% return).

I am indeed at the Newbie/poorer end of the investor scale.

And, while I have googled it before and will undoubtedly again, I legitimately don't quite grasp how calls and puts function at this time (it took me a shameful amount of time to comprehend how shorts made their money after I started to follow TSLA). I don't want to mess with something I don't fully understand, so I leave them well enough alone and just buy my baby stocks every pay check. I know I don't plan on selling my stocks before the one year marker, to get the lower tax bracket for the profit side.

 

[Chickenlittle]

so you’d rather me not post them?

Not comment on you but analysts

 

[powertoold]

Tesla is now a global mass market auto mfg with increasing demand for its products. Shorts have lost. The company will not go bk. The media has tried its best to kill Tesla through the years and failed.

 

[neroden]

I hope this failure works out on August 2nd earnings release. I agree, Elon targeted 10,000 and has not hit the target. His automation plan failed. They have moved on and Shanghai is on track. Burned once, but remaining positive for Shanghai remaining close to on schedule. We will be 10,000 a week soon, not as soon as hoped when the model 3 orders flew in, it were getting there. Hopefully we’re talking about missing 20,000 a week in 2020. Looking back 7 years, I think we will see the greatest most successful string of failures in modern history.

Agreed. I expect and hope that in 2020 we will be talking about how they are producing 10k/week each of 3 and Y, and 2k/week ofthe Semi, but Roadster 2 and Pickup are delayed.

 

[EVNow]

Very helpful! But dare I ask, what is the rationale for holding R&D and SG&A static in the second half of this year when everything above on the Income Statement is expanding? Doesn't the combination of GF-3, Model Y, Solar Tiles, the pick-up, Semi, FSD, and Robo-Taxis require additional investment in R&D? Same concern about essentially no increase in SG&A when much of the growth in deliveries will be in markets where the sales/service/parts/supercharger infrastructure needs to expand to support the larger fleet?

Better to discuss in the finance thread.

 

[schonelucht]

Elon replied to the fake capitulation of the parody TeslaCharts account though. (Which parody account is hilarious btw.)

I would bet good money that someone of the inner Elon circle is behind the parody account, if not Elon himself. Which would make it even funnier.

 

[Fact Checking]

I would bet good money that someone of the inner Elon circle is behind the parody account, if not Elon himself. Which would make it even funnier.

I highly doubt it. I think it's one of the long time Twitter FUD-buster Tesla owners/supporters who is letting off steam by making fun of the TSLAQ clowns. It's highly effective.

 

[Chocochip]

Just in case the parody account wants to adjust his screen name as well, here's a suggested Unicode homoglyph equivalent that differs in three characters yet renders almost exactly the same on screen:

original:

TESLAcharts​

parody:

TESLAϲһartѕ​

I fully support the TESLAϲһartѕ parody account that is exposing the lies of the TESLAcharts account!!

(Could someone tweet this suggestion to TesIaCharts please?)

This magic blew my mind, so I went looking for answers. Well, I learned something today!

 

[graphix25]

Came close at 7.4m in 1st hour of trading.

Over 2M shares traded in the first 18.5 minutes.

EDIT: 10:00 AM report:
4.05M traded in the first 30 minutes.
Upper-BB is now at 235.28 (just below today's low of 236.06)
Mid-BB about to cross over MA(50) - 50Day Moving Avg

View attachment 425977

Gonna be a LARGE day. Shortz-es are spending HUGE now in a futile effort to stop the tide.
Not counting on 'filling the gap' today with these strong volumes.

EDIT2: That's 5.0M shares in the first 40 minutes. Let's see if we get 7.5M in the first hour.

Cheers!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Someone mentioned it earlier about Nokia and Blackberry, but what Tesla is doing with EVs is kind of comparable to the shift from keyboard phones to smart phones. Legacy automakers and analysts think that putting icons on a dumb phone is sufficient to make it an iPhone killer. As if it is just the icons that make it smart. They just don't get it. It's not the batteries and the motor, but the whole experience that makes Tesla stand apart.