Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gavine]

Small data point, which I forgot to mention earlier - at Tesla Brussels this morning there was just one lonely M3LR (a MC while too) in the showroom - normally they'd have 4-5 cars present.

Strikes me as rather bullish.

Same with the Cherry Hill, NJ store. Showroom was practically empty last week.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Just snapped up another 100 shares. I cant see it ending lower than this post-earnings, and I want to recover those pesky losses from a margin call a few months back...

 

[Driver Dave]

Did you warn the inquirer about the terrible panel gaps, whompy wheels and battery fire hazards?

Ha, I actually base how I respond depending on who they are:

Older people: No oil changes!

Young guys: 0-60 like a roller coaster ride!

Techies: It plays games!

Moms: It's super safe!

Investor looking: Get TSLA before it is too late!

 

[madodel]

Checked my Tesla page today and low and behold Springfield and Paramus are now listed for me as Service Center selections. Coincidence or did Tesla phone AI listen to my screams and make the choice to fix the website logic gate selection criteria? Still no option to request mobile service, but progress. Is Tesla AI monitoring this forum?

 

[Snerruc]

IBT is claiming Model y is starting production in Fremont. Any truth?

 

[MP3Mike]

IBT is claiming Model y is starting production in Fremont. Any truth?

Have you been living under a rock? Yes, Tesla has confirmed that they are going to make the Model Y at Fremont.

 

[jerry33]

Russia now ranks 31 (out of 190 countries) in the "Ease of doing business" survey. China is #46. Russia would love to produce Teslas and they are much less likely to steal our tech.

Based on Elon's prior experience attempting to do business with Russia, I doubt he'd even consider it.

 

[replicant]

IBT is claiming Model y is starting production in Fremont. Any truth?

Looks like clickbait, again. The title claims production is starting, but nowhere else this is stated in the article.

https://www. ibtimes.com/tesla-model-y-release-news-production-underway-factory-update-2806498

Don't click it.

IMO, this is not journalism, just some personal-data-exploiters trying to shove shitty ads down your throat and tracking your Web browsing.

Please install an ad-blocker (such as uBlock Origin) and consider whitelisting only the websites you trust so as not incentize yellow journalists to lie to your face like that.

 

[DrJohnM]

It's $4 in CA

View attachment 428861

$5.93 equivalent here in the UK (US gal)

 

[Opus BC fan]

OT

Russia now ranks 31 (out of 190 countries) in the "Ease of doing business" survey. China is #46. Russia would love to produce Teslas and they are much less likely to steal our tech.

I doubt that -- I am not inclined to believe that things have changed since the Ural motorcycle.
IMZ-Ural - Wikipedia

 

[pdq]

Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.
……………… big snip …………………………..
Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !

Frenchboy:
For you to have 100% of every penny/Euro that you have in ANY one stock is a huge risk, and especially any stock that is volatile. Sure -- you can make a fortune by being so heavily concentrated, but you can also see massive losses. Understand that I am not limiting my comments to TSLA, as there are loads and loads of volatile stocks out there and the same rule apply. As a former licensed stock broker, taking such an approach is not investing, it is gambling. An investor diversifies into 30 - 40 different stocks so as to not get wiped out if the market moves against him. Also, I'm not knocking TSLA stock as I've traded in it and made money, so don't think that I'm bashing the company. I'm simply saying that 100% concentration is incredibly risky in any 1 stock.

 

[Captkerosene]

Based on Elon's prior experience attempting to do business with Russia, I doubt he'd even consider it.

I'm not suggesting it might happen. Just saying that it's not a crazy idea. If your goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, then you must put your prejudices aside.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Wall St so far doing it's best job capping any quick bursts higher. The first hour of trading was their typical MO, moderately sized sell blocks continually initiated to bring the stock back down with the lowest amount of money/shares needed to achieve it.

 

[dc_h]

It feels like you're trying to make the point that there is too much inventory - that cars are easy to get quickly because Tesla is not supply limited and inventory is piling up. Is that in fact your point?

The cumulative model 3's manufactured as of Q2 update letter was 291,173 while the cumulative deliveries was 276,098 so you are correct that there were 15,075 model 3's in inventory worldwide at the beginning of July. But here is the context for that:

We don't have sales numbers for model 3, but a proxy for that (which is pretty much guaranteed to underestimate it) would be:
Q2 sales = Q2 deliveries + Q2 in-transit - Q1 in-transit = 77,500 + 6028 - 8586 = 74,942 model 3 sales for Q2. Here I'm using 81% of total in-transit for each quarter since model 3 made up about 81% of total deliveries in each quarter. Q2 had 91 days, so model 3 sold 823 cars per day. With 6028 cars in-transit the "available for sale" inventory world-wide was 15,075 - 6028 = 9,047 but about 1,500 (my estimate) of those were aboard the GMT Astro bound for Tianjin, so only 7,547 were on-the ground. Realistically Tesla probably should keep at least 200 model 3's around for test drives so really only 7,347 should really be "available". That is less than 9 days of sales which is really too low of a number. Just looking at the whole 15,075 inventory that is 18.3 days of sales in the world-wide distribution pipeline, meaning that the curve of inventory/sales-rate that Tesla presented in the Q1 letter has fallen substantially to it's lowest level in years.

If you are still worried about Tesla's inventory anyway then you should think that all other car maker's are on death's doorstep since they have much, much greater available-for-sale inventory/sales-rate than Tesla does.

Tesla does have an inventory problem. They don't have enough inventory because they are supply limited. The pipeline is underfilled, almost empty actually.

How many produced cars become company cars, driven by Elon, JB and possibly dozens or hundreds of other senior Tesla leaders? How may models get driven too much to be sold as new? If these cars are driven over 2000 miles, are they sold as demos? Does that show up in new car sales, or in the used car numbers? Would a replacement for a wrecked car also count as produced, but not sold?
Tslaq has used this to say Tesla is hiding inventory somewhere. They go back to the first Model S produced to show Tesla didn't sell every car. I would guess year one Model S production probably some cars they didn't sell, or were returned and replaced and probably the same for the Model 3.
So, over time the total produced will be > then total sold. Produced = sold + demo + company cars + replacements + scrap + unknown.

Am I missing something, cause normal gets twisted into a conspiracy to quickly.

 

[jerry33]

I'm not suggesting it might happen. Just saying that it's not a crazy idea. If your goal is to reduce CO2 emissions, then you must put your prejudices aside.

In this case it's more "fool me once" rather than prejudice.

 

[mongo]

How many produced cars become company cars, driven by Elon, JB and possibly dozens or hundreds of other senior Tesla leaders?

Other than internal R&D car, I'm gonna for with zero on that question:

"There can never -- and I mean never -- be a discount on a new car coming out of the factory in pristine condition," Musk wrote. "This is why I always pay full price when I buy a car and the same applies to my family friends, celebrities, no matter how famous or influential."

Elon Musk to Tesla employees: NEVER discount a car

 

[elasalle]

Other than internal R&D car, I'm gonna for with zero on that question:

Elon Musk to Tesla employees: NEVER discount a car

..But follow orders for specials from the top

 

[UncaNed]

Just snapped up another 100 shares. I cant see it ending lower than this post-earnings, and I want to recover those pesky losses from a margin call a few months back...

Good for you! ...assuming you didn't buy it on margin.

 

[UncaNed]

Ha, I actually base how I respond depending on who they are:

Older people: No oil changes!

Young guys: 0-60 like a roller coaster ride!

Techies: It plays games!

Moms: It's super safe!

Investor looking: Get TSLA before it is too late!

Great list! What's everybody else's top 5 or 10 best answers?

I think this is arguably on topic if it helps us forum folks sell more Teslas and TSLA's.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Wall St so far doing it's best job capping any quick bursts higher. The first hour of trading was their typical MO, moderately sized sell blocks continually initiated to bring the stock back down with the lowest amount of money/shares needed to achieve it.

I think this a.m. was just the normal gap filling by market makers. You notice the linear trend of peaks during the march down to Friday's close? ($245.08) We touched that briefly then rebounded to $247

We're testing that again right now at $245.26 (12:09 EDT). I think the bigger story this week will be the Option contract expiries. There's 200K of PUT options expiring on Friday, the most of ANY DATE all the way out to the furthest settlement date.

There's also plenty of CALLS set from $240 to $270 this week (over 120K contracts at this hour). Traders are positioned to pick up shares before the Earnings Call next Wednesday.

This will be an epic struggle with lots of volume this week. About 4.4M shares traded by noon today.