Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

And in real long-term investment news:

Tesla (the company) killing itself slowly?

Discussion over to the service thread, though.
Neroden on service (out of main)

 

[dc_h]

Nice to see this finally starting to add up. Add in solar picking up in 2nd half and energy should start running at 100% growth for a few years.

Energy: Powerwall and Powerpack deployment grew by 81% in the second quarter to a record 415 MWh. Powerwalls are now installed at more than 50,000 sites. Additional cell supply combined with our new module line designed by Tesla Grohmann enabled a step change in energy storage production. Solar retrofit deployments declined sequentially to 29 MW. We are in the process of improving many aspects of this business to increase deployments.​

 

[sundaymorning]

just disappointed by the fact that the idea of a "record quarter on every level" was circulated and this artificially inflated my personal expectations.

-leasing will hit the bottom line.
-SX sales still down compared to Q3/4 of 2018.
-Capex is high bc of Shanghai.

Don’t be too down, it’s going to be a “long” kind of game. Keep your eye on the goal.

 

[oneday]

So we hit the 10% circuit breaker limit in after hours. Does that trigger the uptick rule for tomorrow? Or does it have to be during normal trading hours?

 

[traxila]

So, AH volume is 2.5m, that’ll be the shorts out of almost - should be the bottom:

Not an advice.

Truly, who else exactly would be selling in such a frothy manner over this outside of shorts and traders?

This board did call it about the massive number of shares that were corralled to short. Let's see if they blew their wad or if it will continue tomorrow. Hard time imagining green tomorrow. If that were to happen for whatever reason then yes, short squeeze would certifiably be imminent. Maybe Elon has some news about another couple of bill coming from FCA to tell us about in the call

 

[Pezpunk]

just disappointed by the fact that the idea of a "record quarter on every level" was circulated and this artificially inflated my personal expectations.

he was obviously and clearly talking about cars, not money, but idiots here insisted on misinterpreting him. i tried to correct them, but some people insist on believing dumb things.

 

[powertoold]

he was obviously and clearly talking about cars, not money

Sure, but it was hyperbole on his part. Record on every level vs on production and deliveries. Two starkly different impressions, especially when talking at a shareholder's meeting.

 

[traxila]

just disappointed by the fact that the idea of a "record quarter on every level" was circulated and this artificially inflated my personal expectations.

People on this board and Musk himself were very clear that this quarter would show a loss and the metric to focus on would be FCF, which came in just fine. Pay closer attention next time and don't let yourself be fooled. Wanted to actually short going into the close but the puts were so damn expensive and I could not bring myself to do it. Happy with the AH shares I bought.

 

[SebastianR]

Interesting, where have you read that earlier?

"Going forward, we believe Tesla can achieve sustained quarterly profits, absent a severe force majeure or economic downturn, while continuing to grow at a rapid pace. We expect to generate positive cash including operating cash flows and capital expenditures, as well as the normal inflow of cash received from non-recourse financing activities on leased vehicles and solar products."

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712

This is why Q1 hit me so hard. I don't care (too much) about profits, as long as cash is coming in... I don't think that profits are in Tesla's best interest right now. But cash to fund expansion and growth is what I'm looking for. And in Q2 I found it - so if Q1 was a silly blip, I'm all happy. (And yes, I will buy more shares in FRA at opening tomorrow - hope the effects of the short attack are holding up until then...)

 

[Mkorpal]

I need to start listening to my gut more. Had a feeling that whatever happened, stock would be hammered today. Had the idea of doing a swing trade. Oh well.

Either way, cash looks good and we remain on pace.

 

[DrMazeppa]

I guess this is proof we are not in a simulation...

 

[sparcs]

anyone else picked up on the Shanghai Gigagfactory info?

This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process

Looks like there will be some level of production improvement over Fremont if they are calling it "second generation"

 

[shootformoon]

I always read leasing hurts bottom line. But look at their quarterly letter, auto leasing gross margin is:
102/208 = ~50%. While auto sales margin is <19%. Can anyone enlighten me here?

-leasing will hit the bottom line.
-SX sales still down compared to Q3/4 of 2018.
-Capex is high bc of Shanghai.

Don’t be too down, it’s going to be a “long” kind of game. Keep your eye on the goal.

 

[dqd88]

My 2 cents:

Expectations were high, so this is a relative disappointment. That said, if you really look at the fundamentals, they are strong and dispel the short bk thesis.

I think the stock continues to trade bumpy as it always has. If you are short-term, this will continue to present big swing opportunities. If you are long term, no reason to sell.

I think the next 3-6 months will be highly volatile as the bears do not have enough reason to quit. Only after a few more major catalysts (namely China GF traction, Model Y release) will they cover en masse.

 

[kbM3]

Let’s look at cash: how reliable will this kind of FCF be going forward? If Tesla can generate some +2bn in cash a year, I don’t think the rest matters to them all that much any longer...

Don’t forget though that q2 had a cashflow tailwind of deliveries exceeding production.

 

[Tslynk67]

AH volume stuck on 2.5m - seriously? LOL!!!

Going to hurt shorty when this start climbing back up.

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla is a long term stock, the quarterly results are noise. Look at the revenue YoY or better x3 YoY

You can blame it on FUD or whatever you’d like.
But, regardless of the reasons, you can’t ignore that TSLA is at the same price as it was five and half years ago. Even with YoY revenue increases. Longs could’ve done better with a CD. Better with an index fund.

Until GF3 is fully up and running spitting out cars, I don’t see any major upward trend in TSLA.

 

[anon]

One piece of bad news is that Model S/X production is still single shift. No mention of increasing it further anytime soon.

 

[Fact Checking]

Sure, but it was hyperbole on his part. Record on every level vs on production and deliveries. Two starkly different impressions, especially when talking at a shareholder's meeting.

That's wrong, it was very probable he was talking about record deliveries, given the audience that his email was sent to: Tesla's delivery team. he was talking about deliveries and production in that segment.

Elon would have no idea about quarterly revenue, let alone exact profits 3 weeks before the end of the quarter. and he'd have no reason to talk about profits when he's talking to the delivery team about the quarterly push.

 

[30seconds]

TSLA no longer needs to raise money for expansion. That's pretty big