Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Huskyf]

A repeat experience of Q1.

So many bulls on here were singing a cheerful tune, all the while Tesla stays the same

from -2.9 on Q1 to -1.12 in Q2 for me is a big improvemnt

 

[PhaseWhite]

Wow, this is an overreaction.

Looks like a good buying opportunity... Glad I didn't rush to pickup more shares before the quarter...

Poof!

You still own the same amount of the company and your money is only lost if you sell now.

The most important thing I was looking for is FCF, and although it could be better, it looks like they are going to build cash the rest of the year to fund their growth.

 

[KSilver2000]

Ya... well, $2.4 bil of that positive cash flow is from capital raise. So not a great quarter. Looks like the cash burn from Q1 continued into Q2. Musk's promise to spend everything and pour it into FSD seems to be true. But we also have to extend the timeline from the original 2 year to 5 years of cash burn for FSD. Shanghai might be able to change the picture as it could contribute to positive margin. But we won't know till next year.

How are you concluding that?

 

[oneday]

Ya... well, $2.4 bil of that positive cash flow is from capital raise. So not a great quarter. Looks like the cash burn from Q1 continued into Q2. Musk's promise to spend everything and pour it into FSD seems to be true. But we also have to extend the timeline from the original 2 year to 5 years of cash burn for FSD. Shanghai might be able to change the picture as it could contribute to positive margin. But we won't know till next year.

>$600,000,000 in operating cash flow from operations after investing activities is nothing to scoff at. This is a win in my eyes, better then I expected, and the number I was most keen to see.

 

[BLSmith2112]

This should be a lesson in tempering future exuberance prior to an ER, when in reality no one has any idea what to expect.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

A repeat experience of Q1.

So many bulls on here were singing a cheerful tune, all the while Tesla stays the same

Thank God they stay the same. If they listened to all the doubt and BS they would be nowhere near the company they are.

Dan

 

[ggr]

Ya... well, $2.4 bil of that positive cash flow is from capital raise.

No, that's not correct.

As a result of this growth and operational improvements, we generated $614 million of free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex) in Q2. Combined with our public offering of equity and convertible bonds (net proceeds of $2.4 billion), we ended the quarter with $5.0 billion of cash and cash equivalents, the highest level in Tesla’s history.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Ya... well, $2.4 bil of that positive cash flow is from capital raise. So not a great quarter. Looks like the cash burn from Q1 continued into Q2. Musk's promise to spend everything and pour it into FSD seems to be true. But we also have to extend the timeline from the original 2 year to 5 years of cash burn for FSD. Shanghai might be able to change the picture as it could contribute to positive margin. But we won't know till next year.

The letter says 2.4 billion raise plus 614 million FCF.

 

[Nocturnal]

Watching my money evaporate!

Easy come easy go.

 

[Causalien]

The letter says 2.4 billion raise plus 614 million FCF.

Oh ok. Got it wrong.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This should be a lesson in tempering future exuberance prior to an ER, when in reality no one has any idea what to expect.

Every time, man!

 

[PhaseWhite]

Ya... well, $2.4 bil of that positive cash flow is from capital raise. So not a great quarter. Looks like the cash burn from Q1 continued into Q2. Musk's promise to spend everything and pour it into FSD seems to be true. But we also have to extend the timeline from the original 2 year to 5 years of cash burn for FSD. Shanghai might be able to change the picture as it could contribute to positive margin. But we won't know till next year.

They generated positive FCF of $614m. That's the opposite of "cash burn"

From the earning letter:

"As a result of this growth and operational improvements, we generated $614 million of free cash flow (operating cash flow less capex) in Q2"

​

 

[KSilver2000]

from -2.9 on Q1 to -1.12 in Q2 for me is a big improvemnt

Sure. If that’ll soothe your paper losses (or real losses depending on how you invested into this ER).

 

[MarcusMaximus]

A repeat experience of Q1.

So many bulls on here were singing a cheerful tune, all the while Tesla stays the same

GAAP loss of $702mm is the same as loss of $408mm? Cash flow of $-600mm is the same as cash flow of $614mm?

In that case: Yes, please Tesla, keep staying the same! At this rate they’ll “same” themselves into taking over the world.

 

[JBRR]

 

[Fact Checking]

Reiteration (I guess?) of full-year delivery guidance:

"We are working to increase our deliveries sequentially and annually, with some expected fluctuations from seasonality. This is consistent with our previous guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries this year."

Note that Tesla increased 2019 guidance of Model 3 production from 7k/week to 8k/week:

"The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly record in May and then again in June. All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of
all models per week by the end of 2019."​

If S/X production is 2k/week then Model 3 production is 8k/week.

As suspected, after market trading is used by shorts to generate a big drop and dictate the Q2 narrative.

 

[SebastianR]

At the end of the report, under "Outlook":

We believe our business has grown to the point of being self-funding.

I've been in since 2012. This is a huge deal; remember when they first started producing Model S at scale.

I read that. I want to believe. But I read that earlier, too - and was disappointed... That’s why I ask about the reliability of this intent...

 

[traxila]

Bought 100 shares at 238 after hours. This is a massive short attack on low volume. I see the stock being down tomorrow, but not like this.

Hello! 600 million in FCF? Projections of much bigger numbers going forward. Self funding! 5 Bill in the bank account and FCF going forward means bankruptcy is NEVER EVER (never say never...). In fact, with a bill per Q FCF going forward, why do you need capital raises?

I read the letter again. Good fiscal numbers and nothing unexpected. They even reduced projected CapEx. GAAP losses can kiss my ass if Tesla is generating big cash every quarter. China coming. Hold tight and believe or sell and never look back. You choose.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm fine with this, way better than Q1, re-iteration of guidance, self-sustaining...

Also: Our total GAAP operating expenses remained relatively flat at $1.1 billion in Q2 in spite of 50% quarter-over-quarter growth in vehicle deliveries and the inclusion of $117 million in restructuring and other charges.

 

[Sancho]

LOL. after hours traders are flipping idiots. On what planet is tesla worth 10% less than yesterday. What dorks. Im very happy to hold.

More to the point, how can TSLA be trading so much lower than earlier in the year, now that Tesla is evidently “self funding” and expanding production and sales rapidly?