Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woof]

Some speculation that Jeffery Epstein (yes, THAT Epstein) was possibly involved in getting the Saudis to invest in TSLA:
Seth Abramson on Twitter

Epstein Told Tech Journalist He Spoke to Saudis About Investing in Tesla

You'll recall my tech journalist friend was told by Epstein that he was investing "$18 billion" for an oil-tied Middle Easterner—and I said the evidence pointed toward MBS.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

My 30-something nephew was asking me about Tesla today. Questions he had:
• buy new or used? (I suggested new so he could get latest h/w)
• routine maintenance costs? (basically zero)
• battery degradation issues? (there are cars with 200K plus miles and less than 10% degradation)
Things he did not ask about:
• fires
• build quality
• bankwuptcy

It's good to know the FUD hasn't impacted his decision making.

 

[Artful Dodger]

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood on CNBC (posted 3 hrs ago):

Negative sentiment surrounding Tesla is 'pretty unbelievable,'​

Cathie opens with these comments:

I think we're in a 'wack-a-mole' period, where the bears out there are wacking the latest mole. They get production going, then the bears worry about demand. They get demand going, then the bears worry about cash. They do a deal, then the bears worry about margin. We just did a gross margin study, we think gross margins could go up, if they keep pricing where it is, to 30% THIS year.​

 

[mongo]

Can someone elaborate as to what this means?

“Tesla South paint recommissioning” - is this an additional paint shop or modifying an existing operating one?

My take:
Preexisting paint shop that has been modified and is now getting approvals from the appropriate authorities (air quality, fire, etc)

 

[willw64]

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood on CNBC (posted 3 hrs ago):

Negative sentiment surrounding Tesla is 'pretty unbelievable,'​

Cathie opens with these comments:

I think we're in a 'wack-a-mole' period, where the bears out there are wacking the latest mole. They get production going, then the bears worry about demand. They get demand going, then the bears worry about cash. They do a deal, then the bears worry about margin. We just did a gross margin study, we think gross margins could go up, if they keep pricing where it is, to 30% THIS year.​

Thanks for posting this. I hope that she is even half right, but I do agree with her about the coverage. Other than Ackman's short campaign against Herbalife, I can't think of a company in recent history which has drawn the ire of so many as has Tesla. It really is remarkable. While you can't really compare public and private valuations given the dynamics of late state venture/private equity money, it is hard to make the case that Tesla is worth $150/share when Waymo has been valued at $50+bn.

 

[defc0n]

Wow. "Only Sri Lanka has suffered a worse single-day drop since 1950"

Clearly really concerned about the prospects of Macri losing the election. Thankfully Argentina's economy is smaller than Belgium's - not a global powerhouse.

A weakening of the Argentinian peso could potentially help push down lithium prices (they're the third largest lithium producer).

Guess that’s why lithium stocks tanked today. At least even more so than the general market.

 

[StealthP3D]

I think the Taycan did 0-200kmh (about 0-124 mph) while the Model 3 was just 0-60 mph (about 0-100 kmh).

The real test will be on a road racing track. I expect the Porche to be faster than the lowly P3D. If it can't do 20 laps faster than the Model 3 it's a complete poser car and abject failure on Porche's part. If it can beat the P3D on the track then it will steal about 1% of all Model 3 sales. I actually hope it lives up to the hype and is a great electric sports car for the masses. But I'm not willing to assume it will be great just because it's a Porche. Tesla has set a tall bar with the sportiness of their P3D sedan and they don't even make a sportscar (yet or anymore).

Can't wait to see if Porche is full of baloney or if they put some secret sauce in the Taycan. We shouldn't have long to wait!

 

[EVNow]

Two-and-a-half scenarios for Model 3 to get to >30% gross margin by 2021

I don't think they will aggressively try to push Model 3 to 15k/wk volume. For one thing, by 2021 we'll have Model Y producing in volume. That will eat into Model 3 - and more importantly, Tesla will not have the capacity to produce 15k Model 3s and even more Model Ys. I expect Tesla to be producing about 1M total cars in 2021, about 10k/wk each Model 3 & Y.

By then, Model S+X will be a rounding error

 

[RiverCard]

Cathie opens with these comments:

I think we're in a 'wack-a-mole' period, where the bears out there are wacking the latest mole. They get production going, then the bears worry about demand. They get demand going, then the bears worry about cash. They do a deal, then the bears worry about margin. We just did a gross margin study, we think gross margins could go up, if they keep pricing where it is, to 30% THIS year.​

Wasn't GM about 18% in the most recent quarter? Is ARK's gross margin study available somewhere to read?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Is ARK's gross margin study available somewhere to read?

All of ARK Invest's research is available through their website. They often make available downloadable spreadsheets of their analysis as well. I'm not an investor in any of their products, although someone here who is make have a ready answer for you.

Paging @Curt Renz

 

[Bet TSLA]

Tesla launches Model 3 in S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

"We are receiving orders for the Model 3 through the company's webpage in Korea," she said.

 

[ggr]

Mod: All discussion of service issues will be in the thread
Service and communication (out of main)
or will be deleted. Never give up, never surrender. --ggr.

 

[Heimdallr]

Elon has until August, 2022 to achieve "gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters." As the filing states: "It's not probable."

Thirty percent gross margin was a stretch incentive milestone (and the filing scriveners acknowledge that it's now an impossible dream.) Tesla needs a gross margin percentage high enough to generate sufficient gross profit to offset OpEx , Interest and fund CapEx internally.

Not probable that they achieve company-wide gross margin of 30% or more for four consecutive quarters. But probable that they will achieve 30% margins on the Model 3. The energy side of the business is nowhere near and they will launch a number new products and vehicle programs, none of which enjoy 30% margins from the beginning.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I think the Taycan did 0-200kmh (about 0-124 mph) while the Model 3 was just 0-60 mph (about 0-100 kmh).

Taycan did that in a safe environment, a runway I think. Do you seriously expect a normal Tesla driver to go 200km/h on normal roads, which are sometimes not that straight?

Still I bet the Model 3 Performance can do this all day, just like Captain America.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Do you seriously expect a normal Tesla driver to go 200km/h on normal roads, which are sometimes not that straight?

 

[Johann Koeber]

Taycan did that in a safe environment, a runway I think. Do you seriously expect a normal Tesla driver to go 200km/h on normal roads, which are sometimes not that straight?

Still I bet the Model 3 Performance can do this all day, just like Captain America.

Yes, here in Germany we do drive over 200 km/h occasionally. Especially sport cars or large limousines.
Due to traffic and lots of construction it is less than years ago, but still.
For some German auto buyers this is an important feature of their performance car: ability to go 200 or 250 km/h. Only exotic cars can go faster than that (including M3P).

 

[Fact Checking]

Yes, here in Germany we do drive over 200 km/h occasionally. Especially sport cars or large limousines.
Due to traffic and lots of construction it is less than years ago, but still.
For some German auto buyers this is an important feature of their performance car: ability to go 200 or 250 km/h. Only exotic cars can go faster than that (including M3P).

About half of the Autobahn network has speed limits of 120-130 km/h though. The unlimited sections tend to be longer, and you don't go 0-200 km/h on them but 110-200 km/h, as the main obstruction are other cars going at 100-130 km/h. On most trips between cities you'll hit 200 km/h maybe 5-10 times.

It's insanely dangerous to drive at 250 km/h even on the Autobahn: traffic is too heavy during much of the day.

So the thirty 0-200 km/h launches are mostly a publicity stunt, because Porsche still cannot beat Tesla in acceleration or on the track. If they could, they'd be touting Porsche as the fastest EV ...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Taycan did that in a safe environment, a runway I think. Do you seriously expect a normal Tesla driver to go 200km/h on normal roads, which are sometimes not that straight?

Still I bet the Model 3 Performance can do this all day, just like Captain America.

Indeed, doing 0-60 mph sprints continuously is harder on the drivetrain than 0-120 mph (200 kmh) sprints. It's simple physics. Peak current draw during acceleration occurs before 60 mph, and then tapers off rapidly after that. More current, more heat. So doing 0-60-0 sprints means higher average current draw than doing 0-120-0 mph sprints.

In effect, Porsche is moving the goalposts, since NOBODY EVER talks about the 0-200 kmh time as a benchmark for their car's performance. Why didn't Porsche choose the 400 m (~ 1/4 mile) time? Or even the 1 Km time? Those performance metrics are commonly cited.

Let's see an independent test of Taycan 0-60 mph sprints, including motor and battery temperature curves. Then we'll have hard numbers to compare to the Tesla Model 3P.

At best, this was a Marketing stunt veiled in a subtle attempt at deception. But let's wait and see on Sep 4 how much will be 'Taken' from Porsche customers. The Taycan will attempt to compete with the MP3 on performance, but will it compete on value?

 

[CorneliusXX]

I disagree. The arguments are pretty thin:

1. Two people giggling in the first row can pretty much mean anything. An inside joke perhaps, or something along the lines of "oh no, another Elon prediction"...

2. Cash flow positive except when launching new products is a very general statement.

3. Here's what Toni Sacconaghi has actually asked (emphasis mine):
Yes, thank you. I was wondering if you can comment about whether you felt that Q2 benefited from consumers in the U.S. sort of rushing out to buy Model 3 in advance of the declining federal tax credit, a phenomenon that you sort of saw in Q4. And part of the reason I ask is, at least by my analysis it looks like maybe 70% of the Model 3 sold in the quarter were in the U.S., which is sort of higher than your normalized percentage of U. S. sales. And so, do you feel that that phenomena may have occurred in Q2? And are you still confident that Q3 deliveries can improve sequentially? And beyond the data point that you provided on the call that the orders quarter data are better than last quarter, is there anything else you can point to that provides that confidence?

Everything that Elon says after that is in context to the disappearing federal tax credit.

I think we will set ourselves up for disappointment if we start to expect any significant Model Y ramp from Q1 2020. It's good enough if they are going to do what they are saying they will do.

I've been here since before the X and the 3 launched and it's the same thing with each model.

• Elon is sandbaging timelines
• Ignoring battery cell manufacturing capacity when estimating volumes
• Ignoring the difficulty of establishing new manufacturing lines and supply chains

This will just increase as we get closer to the Y launch, plenty of speculation that manufacturing will start sooner and in greater numbers, only to be disappointed at the actual still terrific results.

 

[SPadival]

QSA (TSLAQ Service Announcement):

Hi Paul *Waves*, Good to see that I shamed you back up into the air . Keep up (pun intended) the good work

Machine Planet on Twitter

Target $TSLA: Episode 19 (An Efficient Tour) Let's start with Pier 80 Today®, normally the subject of extreme telephoto shots on the ground, but getting the SAF treatment today. Grand Quest departed for China around midnight and Glovis Cosmos moved right in 6 hours later. $tslaQ

Edit: Thread for those blocked -> Thread by @Paul91701736: "Target $TSLA: Episode 19 (An Efficient Tour) Let's start with Pier 80 Today®, normally the subject of extreme telephoto shots on the ground, […]" #FremontFollies

Yes. That Paul De Zan dude used to fly a plane over Fremont Fremont and the old Lathrop glass factory building to take photos and invent massive conspiracy theories, all of which amounted to nothing more than an LA times article by Rusty Mitchell

BTW, Paul blocked me when I tweeted @ him that the Lathrop facility was owned by an auto transport company & not Tesla

Now all he does is dutifully block people on the orders of babycharts and sundry shorts.