Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

ICE-land finally becoming EV-land !

Not-an-ICE-land

 

[Tslynk67]

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

This statement "Shorts are up +$3.02 billion in YTD mark-to-market profits,-$73mm in Sept"

Shorts would be up if they closed their positions, except they don't, do in fact they're down because they're paying interest daily...

If they did close their positions then the SP would be way higher.

 

[StealthP3D]

I enjoy this guys videos, but they tend to highlight a best case scenario. There will surely be bumps in the road as Tesla starts ramping GF3.

So you're saying the bumps in the road will provide plenty of opportunities for Tesla to catch air?

 

[StealthP3D]

Maybe more likely "Tesland". Might even take the lead away from Norway with more Teslas per capita than anyone else?

Ummm...no.

 

[MP3Mike]

This statement "Shorts are up +$3.02 billion in YTD mark-to-market profits,-$73mm in Sept"

Shorts would be up if they closed their positions, except they don't, do in fact they're down because they're paying interest daily...

I think he takes the daily interest into account when he calculates their profit/loss.

 

[scaesare]

VW's battery suppliers at sub $100 per kWh.

VW clams it's buying $100 kWh battery, moves forward to build new battery gigafactory - Electrek

Perhaps they mean euro's ?

I'm sure this is cell cost, not pack cost.

Nonethless, that's pretty low cost. I'd guess it will be for commensurately low volume. We know that LG gave GM low cell cost upfront (perhaps taking a loss) on the Bolt, to get their foot in the door. They were counting on being able to get their costs down by the time GM ramped up production. But that never really happened with the Bolt.

I'd wager that VW is getting sub-$100 pricing for low (tens-of-)thousands of cars worth. Very unlikely somebody without their own gigafactory is going to commit to that for 100's-of-thousands of cars worth at this stage...

How many ID.3's will they really sell in the next few years? Seven... eight?

 

[DRAW]

A big news item in Denmark today, is the minister of the environment going to the EU, asking for a change of rules that would allow a danish ban on the selling of ICEcars from 2030.

Tesla was mentioned as a major factor in making electric cars cool and showing that they are a credible alternative to ICE cars.

Danish car market is about 220.000 cars per year, but trending towards micro cars and hypermilers. The new improved range VW eUp will probably be a hit, but Model 3 and Y will have plenty of market share.

 

[Causalien]

Market thread? Shares are up, are emerging delivery trends encouraging bigger investors back in? Did the GF3 phase 2 construction get some attention? We don’t know phase one production capacity and they’re already building phase 2. Phase 2 will likely not require a stamping press, only assembly, so it won’t take as long as phase 1, which is amazing.

Seems like steady accumulation is happening, which is harder for the sharts to fight. They can cap a daily trend, but large accumulation can’t be fought long term. Expect unexpected random hit pieces daily!

If Trump didn't escalate the trade war so much. I wouldn't have to tie up so much money with my corp to reorg the trades routes. Those money would've been used to invest in Tesla stock.

Then again, if I were to invest 40% of my net worth in bond like my advisor told me to, I'd be able to rebalance and sell those bond for TSLA stock... but of course, I didn't buy any bonds because I am too young in my life to consider that. Seriously, sometimes prudent financial planning and weighting prevents me from doing what's right, but if I don't have any of these bankroll management rule in place, I'd be buying TSLA stock with all my cash right now. Then again, if I don't have any rules in place and I went ahead with all my imaginary "all in" trades since I started, I'd be a billionaire by now.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - this morning: This ARK ETF Is Flipping Its Script

TSLA is the top holding in ARKQ at over 11%.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I can't imagine if they were able to contract out a substantial amount of GWh at less than $100/KWh that they would bother building out their own factory. What probably happened is they signed a 10-year agreement for X amount of batteries per year at like $99 KWh at the cell level. So their supplier knows that this is probably a loss for the next 1-3 years but then a huge profit source years 4-10. They will likely have to pay some fee to break this agreement when(not if) battery prices make this a bad investment.

VW found out pretty fast the absolute need for security of cell supply when the Koreans tried their power move. They'd pay 2x the price for security.

 

[MP3Mike]

Nonethless, that's pretty low cost. I'd guess it will be for commensurately low volume. We know that LG gave GM low cell cost upfront (perhaps taking a loss) on the Bolt, to get their foot in the door. They were counting on being able to get their costs down by the time GM ramped up production. But that never really happened with the Bolt.

Or LG gave them the good price on the batteries so they could make money selling them the drive-train, infotainment, and the rest of the car. (Since a good portion of the car is made by LG.)

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A big news item in Denmark today, is the minister of the environment going to the EU, asking for a change of rules that would allow a danish ban on the selling of ICEcars from 2030.

Tesla was mentioned as a major factor in making electric cars cool and showing that they are a credible alternative to ICE cars.

Danish car market is about 220.000 cars per year, but trending towards micro cars and hypermilers. The new improved range VW eUp will probably be a hit, but Model 3 and Y will have plenty of market share.

That’s strange. The Dutch have also decided to ban ICE cars by 2030. Which EU regulation would prevent them and the Danes from doing so? But even if the EU says no for whatever twisted reason the government can simply decide to tax the hell out of ICE cars. A 1000% polution tax sounds about right to me.

 

[Tslynk67]

A big news item in Denmark today, is the minister of the environment going to the EU, asking for a change of rules that would allow a danish ban on the selling of ICEcars from 2030.

Tesla was mentioned as a major factor in making electric cars cool and showing that they are a credible alternative to ICE cars.

Danish car market is about 220.000 cars per year, but trending towards micro cars and hypermilers. The new improved range VW eUp will probably be a hit, but Model 3 and Y will have plenty of market share.

What's the difference with the proposals from 2018? Is it the case that it got passed by Danish Parliament and this is the next step?

Denmark embraces electric car revolution with petrol and diesel ban plan - Reuters

TBH, I'd like to see an EU directive on banning sales in all Member States by a certain date, plus with the local restrictions progressively coming into place, it would also make sense to start banning older cars, perhaps introduce a scrapping/incentive scheme.

Tesla bears always argue that you're better keeping your current car and running that into the ground, as opposed to getting an EV. However this argument ignores the fact that most of the displaced ICE will then be bought by someone else, not scrapped, often replacing an older, more polluting vehicle, so bit, by bit, the roads green up.

 

[willw64]

Another day more TSLAQ FUD - video on CNBC with someone "sleeping" at the wheel.

 

[EVMeister]

video on CNBC with someone "sleeping" at the wheel.

Toyota?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

How many ID.3's will they really sell in the next few years? Seven... eight?

Nein!

 

[willw64]

Toyota?

It looked like a staged video which made the whole thing even more ridiculous. It was two people crashed out driving down the highway and the video would have been filmed from a car driving alongside.

The main CNBC person was trying to make more out of it, but LeBeau who covers autos tried to downplay it some by saying the way the wheel vibrates and the car eventually shuts down that there was probably "more to the story."

 

[SpaceCash]

Another day more TSLAQ FUD - video on CNBC with someone "sleeping" at the wheel.

Not FUD. Free advertisement

 

[EVMeister]

OT (kind of).

This isn't directly Tesla related, but the VW ID range is currently having a big reveal event at IAA (Frankfurt International Motor Show). Focussed largely on the ID.3. Volkswagen live Have been watching it live and I have to say I like the way they're presenting this as a better alternative to ICE vehicles. An alternative to the VW Golf, for example. I think this is very important to help educate consumers about how viable EVs can be and fit into their lives. They aren't going on about other EVs very much and aren't pitting it against them, it's very much this vs. ICE alternatives.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm so tired of these autopilot headlines.

Tesla driver sleeps as car speeds along Massachusetts highway, video appears to show

It should read "amazingly, driver falls asleep while driving and Tesla autopilot prevents a deadly crash". That said, anyone caught using a autopilot buddy or sleeping while driving should have their autopilot software license revoked permanently. Hurting the brand and endangering everyone.