Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

Beware of the wording "up to". That can mean that they're quoting WLTP city ranges. Like EPA, WLTP has city, highway, and combined.

Exactly.

The same weasel wording (well, lie) Porsche used during the Taycan unveil, because "~200 miles of EPA range" doesn't sound nearly as cool, does it?

 

[EVMeister]

We all know Tesla does the best and most capacious Frunks. But is it really the case that the VW ID.3 doesn't even have one? I give you exhibit A.

 

[Fact Checking]

-not shipping until next summer, even though production starts in November of this year

Read: "Volkswagen ID Production Hell".

While it might make sense to stockpile any IDs made this year and deliver them next year, to maximize 2020 ZEV credits earned, it makes zero sense to stockpile IDs until the "Summer of 2020" - which is 6-8 months of supply. In fact it would be in the best interest to trickle-deliver IDs, so that people can review them and give VW feedback about any initial problem - which would be much cheaper for VW to fix. By delaying deliveries they are making the fixing of bugs more expensive.

The obviously explanation is that VW doesn't expect any meaningful volume of ID3 production until the summer of 2020, so there's nothing to deliver.

Not that they'll admit to it - only Tesla is supposed to be the inexperienced newcomer with Production Hell, right?

Manager Magazin already leaked it a couple of months ago that VW's EV projects are late, and that the VW board is unhappy about Herbert Diess:

Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess verliert Rückhalt in Konzernspitze

"Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess verliert Rückhalt in Konzernspitze"

"Als Ende März das Aufsichtsratspräsidium zu einer Krisensitzung zusammenkam, trugen die Arbeitnehmervertreter, angeführt von Osterloh und dem Audi-Kollegen Peter Mosch (47), eine Liste des Diess'schen Debakels vor. Reihenweise verschobene Produktionsanläufe, teure Softwareprobleme und Verzögerungen durch fehlende Zuliefererteile, versprochene, aber nicht eingelöste Synergien. Die Schäden gehen in den Milliardenbereich."

...

"Herbert Diess hat ein Führungsproblem. Zu viele seiner Ideen und Projekte versanden, zu viele Topleute folgen ihm allenfalls widerwillig. Die Volkswagen-Führung sei immer auf einer Linie gewesen, erinnert sich ein anderer Vorstand. Und jetzt, mit Diess? Der Mann lacht nur. Diverse Vorstandskollegen haben Diess gesagt, er dürfe seinen Leuten nicht ständig das Gefühl geben, sie seien Ahnungslose – um sie dann doch wieder allein zu lassen mit ihren Problemen. Indes, es hilft nicht."

"Wird die Lage irgendwo kritisch, setzt Diess oft einen neuen Vorstand ein. Als das Elektroprogramm stockte, schuf er ein neues Vorstandsressort; genauso, als die Softwareprobleme eskalierten. Thomas Ulbrich (53) und Christian Senger (44) bekamen die Jobs, beide glücklos in ihren alten Positionen. Inzwischen herrscht Chaos, insbesondere in der Marke VW. Die Schwierigkeiten beim Golf-Anlauf wie die beim Elektroauto ID belegen das, die Vernetzung wird nicht an die von Teslas Model 3 herankommen. Wichtige Assistenzsysteme werden nicht fertig, das Ergebnisprogramm kommt ebenfalls nicht voran. Mutlosigkeit greift um sich."

...

Aber ein Aufsichtsrat spricht zwei böse Wörter: "letzte Warnung"
​

Google Translate, with small readability corrections:

"Volkswagen AG: Herbert Diess loses support with VW board members"

...

"At the end of March, when [Volkswagen's] Presidential Council of the Supervisory Board convened for a crisis meeting, the employee representatives, led by Osterloh and Audi colleague Peter Mosch (47), presented a list of Diess' debacle: serial production delays, expensive software problems, and delays due to lack of supplier parts. Promised, but not realized synergies. The damage goes into the billions."

...

'"Herbert Diess has a leadership problem, too many of his ideas and projects have collapsed, too many top people follow him at best reluctantly." The Volkswagen leadership was always in line, remembers another board member. "And now, with this?" The man just laughs. Several board colleagues have said Diess, he should not constantly give his people the feeling that they are clueless - but then to leave them alone with their problems. It does not help. "'

"When the situation gets critical, Diess often replaces board members, and when the EV program faltered, he created a new board department, just as the software problems escalated, Thomas Ulbrich (53) and Christian Senger (44) both got the jobs, without luck. Meanwhile, there is chaos, especially in the VW brand. The difficulties in Golf start-up as the ID3 prove that [connectivity] will not match those of Tesla's Model 3. Important assistance systems are not ready, the resulting program is not progressing, despondency is spreading. "

...

One VW board member says two nasty words: "last warning" [to Diess]
​

If these leaks from multiple VW board members are an accurate depiction of the mood within VW leadership then the board is pretty unhappy with Herbert Diess, and the ID3 is his "last chance".

-not coming to the US

Read: "compliance vehicle sold under production cost". VW will need every ZEV sale in the EU to reduce their CO₂ emissions expenses starting next year.

If VW was able to sell the ID3 at a profit and if they'd be able to make more than say the ~100k they need in the EU to cancel out their CO₂ expenses, they'd clearly be selling tens of thousands of them in the U.S. too.

But in the U.S. IMO they have no chance to sell in volume against the Model 3, even with the $7,500 federal credit.

(I'm not being saucy--I'm genuinely a bit flabbergasted by today's news. I'm used to virtually every non-Tesla EV reveal being terrible or compliance volume but really thought this one was supposed to be a high-volume, globally-available jumping-off point for VW.)

Yesterday was VW's happy face, there's a lot of problems with the ID3 under the surface.

 

[Carl Raymond]

We all know Tesla does the best and most capacious Frunks. But is it really the case that the VW ID.3 doesn't even have one? I give you exhibit A.

Maybe it’s to provide the illusion that the car must be brought in regularly for servicing (don’t want to be showing up those ICE cars).

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm confused by the ID.3 reveal details. I think the thing looks like a potential winner, but:

-not shipping until next summer, even though production starts in November of this year
-not coming to the US

Hint: this is VW's compliance car for EU2020 C02 limits. They'll build the minimum they have to in order to avoid fines. And sell them only where they get C02 credits. You know, so they can continue selling ICEbreakers?

 

[RobStark]

We all know Tesla does the best and most capacious Frunks. But is it really the case that the VW ID.3 doesn't even have one? I give you exhibit A.

May I interest you in a proper British Froot.

 

[LN1_Casey]

May I interest you in a proper British Froot.

Isn't Jaguar owned by an Indian company? Like a reverse colonization.

 

[Fact Checking]

Isn't Jaguar owned by an Indian company? Like a reverse colonization.

Only if Jaguar Land Rover survives the creative destruction around the EV transition. If they go bankrupt then Tata Motors won't be a colonizing power, but a bag holder ...

 

[loco]

Isn't Jaguar owned by an Indian company? Like a reverse colonization.

Yes, just like all airports in Greece are German. (ok, technically they just leased them for 40 years)

 

[LN1_Casey]

Yes, just like all airports in Greece are German. (ok, technically they just leased them for 40 years)

Really? As I currently sit in an Greek airport, I can only frown at that. I thought the Germans were WAY more organized!

 

[RobStark]

Isn't Jaguar owned by an Indian company? Like a reverse colonization.

Jaguar Land Rover- Indian Owned

Rolls Royce,Bentley,Mini- German Owned

Vauxhall- French Owned

Lotus, London Taxi Company- Chinese Owned

Morgan Motor Company- Majority Italian owned.

Aston Martin and McLaren Automotive- BRITISH OWNED!

 

[Hock1]

Hint: this is VW's compliance car for EU2020 C02 limits. They'll build the minimum they have to in order to avoid fines. And sell them only where they get C02 credits. You know, so they can continue selling ICEbreakers?

Speaking of VW "compliance" cars, does anyone know the status of the 320K+ VW diesels that have been rotting away in parking lots and fields across the U.S. for, iirc, going on 2 and 1/2 years now?

 

[CorneliusXX]

Whoa, are you serious? This is terrible.

Why would anyone ship 500+ cars via containers when RoRo ships have existed for many decades? This 4 cars/container method strikes me as both remarkably labor intensive, dangerous, damage-inducing, and horribly slow for both loading and unloading.

Thanks for any insights you might provide.

Probably because it's cheaper than finding a RoRo going from the US to Oz.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Tesla has shipped all its cars to Australia by container in the past. Delivery staff here appear to be overwhelmed with the influx of cars and probably couldn't cope with a single RoRo. All cars are being offloaded and processed in Sydney and then trucked around the country. Customer deliveries have just started in earnest now but it looks like the initial deliveries will extend well into October and maybe beyond. I ordered in early July, don't have a car assigned yet and don't expect to receive it until sometime in October.

That seems to be common for expansion to each geography. However there's probably not enough vehicles to Australian to have too much of an impact on inventory levels for Q3. UK numbers could have an impact if there are similar logistical issues.

 

[CorneliusXX]

I'll be less generous here: when the topic is any product of the Volkswagen Group, the supposedly independent, hard hitting, no-nonsense coverage that Tesla is getting from Fred/Electrek is nowhere to be seen.

The pattern over the last couple of months has been that Fred's articles at Electrek about both the VW-Porsche Taycan and the VW ID were uncharacteristically gushing and deferential to manufacturer claims - barely rising above "infomertial" level.

The obvious conclusion: Fred and Elektrek is either taking direct payments from Volkswagen, or is getting access to pre-release information/scoop from Volkswagen PR, for which VW PR expects soft or at least friendly coverage in a spoken or unspoken quid-pro-quo, and Fred's coverage of Volkswagen has turned soft accordingly.

The big OEMs know how to beguile reporters. Fred probably got business class tickets and a fancy hotel and a VIP reception to VW launches. It's nearly impossible to stay objective once VW has been so generous, that's just human nature and the OEMs know it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Speaking of VW "compliance" cars, does anyone know the status of the 320K+ VW diesels that have been rotting away in parking lots and fields across the U.S. for, iirc, going on 2 and 1/2 years now?

Hate to sound flippant, but VW could donate 50K of them to the Bahamas. The emissions non-compliance issues are mainly around particulates which are worse in large cities and dry, cold climates. Bahamas has neither of those, but nearly every single vehicle on its two major Northern islands was damaged or wrecked, and people don't have the personal financial means to replace those lost vehicles.

It'd be better for VW to provide some transport to help the people of Bahamas with their immediate needs. Concerns which will likely extend for over a decade, if the people work hard and receive the help they need. C'mon VW, do the right thing when its not in your immediate best interest. You know, the way Tesla stepped up when people were without electricity in Puerto Rico?

 

[Driver Dave]

We all know Tesla does the best and most capacious Frunks. But is it really the case that the VW ID.3 doesn't even have one? I give you exhibit A.

Knowing VW they probably have a switch that turns off the electric motor and turns on a hidden gas engine to "fool emissions".

 

[Pras]

The big OEMs know how to beguile reporters. Fred probably got business class tickets and a fancy hotel and a VIP reception to VW launches. It's nearly impossible to stay objective once VW has been so generous, that's just human nature and the OEMs know it.

How does it matter? This is the money lost they could have spent on R&D. Reporters can create initial buzz but the brand is created by customer experience. We can already see what happened to bolt and etron.

 

[hobbes]

Was this posted already? Tesla has applied for a permit for GA 5 line preparation:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

The article says

The application to the city of Fremont, California, describes the project it’s seeking a permit for as “GA5 demo and rough grading.”

Doesn´t grading suggest that this will be a new building?

Some discussion here, some posters acting as they have first hand facts.
Tesla Permit Application Hints at Another Fremont Assembly Line : teslamotors

 

[jerry33]

May I interest you in a proper British Froot.

Pronounced "Fruit" as it needs to rhyme with boot.