Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jhm]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

This resonates with me. It's time for the share price to soar into the $500s, but it is the struggle that matters.

 

[Buckminster]

I have said it before......Jerome makes the train run on time at Tesla. If he leaves, I am out of TSLA.

If Jerome, and Elon both left, nothing would change for me. Best product roadmap & best culture.

 

[EVNow]

1. Production limitation prevents large builders from signing on. A surge of people who now goes to Taylor Morrison and ask them about Tesla Roof will end up disappointed. Until Tesla can provide a 3-5k/week run rate, I don't think any company would sign on.

2. Wait and see...it's still a very new product so builders want to see if people are actively requesting these roofs..and how people with v3s fair. This product is at the very early adopter phase, not really for prime time.

I doubt you need 3-5k/wk run rate. In 2018 there were 62,600 SFRs or ~ 1k/wk. Even the biggest builder is probably not building over 10k/year.

The slowing trend in California construction starts | first tuesday Journal

 

[mongo]

I consider RoboTaxi a black swan. Nobody - I mean literally nobody in the industry - expects Tesla to be ready for L4 Robotaxi anytime soon. It may change when City NOA comes out - but we should just consider it an upside whenever it happens.

lf Tesla getting L4-L5 were characterizable as a black swan, it would only be so for other autonomous driving companies, not Tesla.
Black Swan Definition

Taleb describes a black swan as an event that 1) is beyond normal expectations that is so rare that even the possibility that it might occur is unknown, 2) has a catastrophic impact when it does occur, and 3) is explained in hindsight as if it were actually predictable.

 

[Singuy]

I doubt you need 3-5k/wk run rate. In 2018 there were 62,600 SFRs or ~ 1k/wk. Even the biggest builder is probably not building over 10k/year.

The slowing trend in California construction starts | first tuesday Journal

When you partner up, it'll be a promise. So you either exclusively supply a partner to make sure 100% that the partner is fed with adequate supply or you have enough capacity to satisfy the partner AND everyone else.

Tesla can't make any promises so it's a waste of time partnering up.

 

[clmason]

I’ve been following along since 2008 and been holding stock since 2010. Dabbled in calls, puts and holding shares all the while obsessively following the news, listening to quarterly conference calls and studying each quarterly report. My expertise in the market is limited but I think this run brings us to the ATH and I think it goes up 25% from here. I think it’s up until the consolidation zone at ~$70B Market cap. Still holding long and strong.

 

[KSilver2000]

So, isn't this a reason why we should expect solar roof tile deals with California homebuilders. Seems like a no-brainer in new construction.

Most new construction is done with builder grade material. Even many of the "upgrade" options that homebuyers choose are pretty standard fare material imported that you can purchase cheap locally. A builder will lose a lot of potential homebuyers if the entire development was done using more expensive solar roof tiles. Show me even one tract home development where 100% of homebuyers paid for many of the upgrades. Unless the development is in a high end neighborhood where homes are going for $2+ million, I don't think you'll see a developer using SR tiles as the default standard.

I doubt you need 3-5k/wk run rate. In 2018 there were 62,600 SFRs or ~ 1k/wk. Even the biggest builder is probably not building over 10k/year.

The slowing trend in California construction starts | first tuesday Journal

When you partner up, it'll be a promise. So you either exclusively supply a partner to make sure 100% that the partner is fed with adequate supply or you have enough capacity to satisfy the partner AND everyone else.

Tesla can't make any promises so it's a waste of time partnering up.

You guys do realize the 2020 CA solar mandate does NOT actually require the roofs to have solar generating equipment.

 

[RobStark]

Then we drove by the Rivian factory in Bloomington...I know it was a Saturday...but it was a ghost town.View attachment 470323 View attachment 470324 View attachment 470325

Rivian doesn't start production til a year from now.

I am sure Fremont was abuzz of people on a Saturday in June 2011.

 

[avoigt]

This resonates with me. It's time for the share price to soar into the $500s, but it is the struggle that matters.

A lot can happen from here but experience shows me lets be careful what will happen.

If fact after the squeeze we have seen there are 2 possible scenarios. One is that given a 1 day notice period for shorts they had Friday to search for cash but Monday they either have it or the broker will liquidate. I expect quite some liquidation. If bulls or bears run you better wait at the sideline before you reengage but I expect some stupid shorts to double down still not understanding the ER numbers released.

IOW we may see a continues run up that causes again investors to jump in to win the $50/sh that we have up to $380. Right now I expect us to reach $380 soon as the ATH is kind of inevitable for the market to test his guts. From there we may bounce back maybe even earlier where resistance can be found.

If the momentum and dynamic grows we may even see a bounce through ATH soon. Nothing is impossible from here and the market tends to overreact in situations like this. Obviously I would love to see such a move which would encourage new investors to go in.

Thats the positive scenario, the negative is that massive short selling combined with profit taking takes place Monday keep the SP below $330 testing $300 again which would encourage many to double down on the bear side. From there we likely go up again though as I don't see any doom scenario that the shorts didn't use yet.

All of that is obviously pure speculation so don't take this as any advice and anyhow the best strategy is to buy over time and stay ultra long. With that strategy you always sleep well knowing how crazily undervalued Tesla really is:

Alex on Twitter

 

[Artful Dodger]

I suspect we get a cap raise after 'battery day'. They will need to start several GFs to achieve their goals with the new batteries IMO.

And I suspect when Tesla writes in the Q3 Update letter 'Tesla is now self-funding', they mean exactly that:

Cash Flow:

"Positive quarterly free cash flow going forward, with possible temporary exceptions, particularly around the launch and ramp of new products. We continue to believe our business has grown to the point of being selffunding."​

I do allow for another round of debt to extend debt/bonds payable in Q4, but I also suspect that to close on substantially better terms now that the SP has recovered and outlook is strong. A Moody's upgrade would be helpful there.

All in all, Tesla's new mantra is 'capital efficiency'. I expect it to be a guiding principle going forward, based on the hard lessons learned from the Model 3 ramp.

Capital Efficiency (Tesla's Obsession) | CleanTechnica

 

[Tslynk67]

Yeah definitely a pattern here. Amazing how wall street hasn’t caught onto these repeating head fakes. But I guess we all know they’re not very smart.

Wall Street is part of the scam, it's the retail traders that keep getting burned, not those in the know, they're raking it in.

 

[Tslynk67]

Bought that lottery ticket too, think this will be a hard one to pick an exit for.

View attachment 469917

I also bought 10 - was from someone pointing out the $1 price in this very thread - thank you.

Yeah, this one could turn out to be very profitable indeed. I'm going to wait, wait, wait, it might fund my wife's MY if things carry on like this.

(that being said, we've road-tripped to Denmark for the week and she all these M3's we're seeing are giving her second thoughts, she even said "that's my car" at one point yesterday when a lovely pearl-white turned-up).

 

[Fact Checking]

I think at that time, Jonas gave out the "$10" target to help break down TSLA stock. He specifically said Apple and Amazon would not be interested to buy Tesla. We all know that's a lie. Why did he make that lie? I think he wanted to push TSLA below $180. There was a good chance for sharp drop once TSLA breaks below the major support level.

Agreed, and I think another reason for the $10 valuation stunt by Jonas might have been "revenge": just a quarter earlier Tesla yanked Jonas from participating in the Tesla earnings calls.

Top analysts are not, primarily, offering analysis - they are selling "investor eyeballs".

They get paid via access and preferential treatment:

• "Private" conference calls after earnings calls, to "clarify" disclosures.
• Access to executives: when a favored top analyst calls, then Investors Relations of all big publicly traded companies are going to pick up the phone.
• Physical access to production facilities, factory tours.
• Front row VIP tickets to unveilings and other investor events, Q&A questions granted.
• Earnings call slots and 2 questions in the Q&A session.

(Conveniently, covering analysts are excluded from many SEC insider trading and material non-public information disclosure rules.)

This is a game that every large publicly traded company that cares about Street valuation has to play with covering Wall Street analysts of the top investment banks.

But Tesla was pushing back and kicked Jonas off the conference calls, IIRC shortly after his "is HW3 a danger to become the Terminator?" question to Elon, when Tesla proudly announced the HW3 AI chip breakthrough a year ago.

Jonas's $10 stunt and valuing Autopilot/FSD only 6 billion dollars in the bullish $150 scenario was I suspect his version of:

"Nice publicly traded company you have there! Would be a shame if something happened to it."​

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well, I was wrong last Tuesday when I said that I thought the shorts would manage to suppress any slight gains in the stock price after the earnings report, soooo, in the interest of hoping I'm wrong again I will predict a large push by the dark side to sell more short shares early next week to try to push it down below 300 again.

This is without a doubt personal for many of them. They think Tesla is all a fraud and a scam and they will look at this as an opportunity to double down.

Now, having said that, let's see another $50 gain!

Dan

 

[Ocelot]

Another ER..and another time I should of placed bets against this boards overall sentiment.

When we were at ATH... no one was talking 180. It’s a fickle beast. Buyer beware.

 

[MC3OZ]

I consider RoboTaxi a black swan. Nobody - I mean literally nobody in the industry - expects Tesla to be ready for L4 Robotaxi anytime soon. It may change when City NOA comes out - but we should just consider it an upside whenever it happens.

Yes, I am more commenting on what Tesla themselves expect.

 

[CorneliusXX]

It feels like the end of an era. The battle is over, the shorts lost like they were always going to.

Now Tesla is untouchable by FUD, China is coming online, Tesla energy ramping, cash in the bank... no more discounted chances to pick up shares. No more quirky Elon tweets, no more surprises.

In victory I feel empty.

Don't worry, Tesla continually pushes the envelope. There's plenty of opportunity for shorts to meddle again. And, if the stock price runs off again the "overvalued" complaints will emerge from their graves like deranged zombies.

Think of what else you have to look forward to:

• When autonomous vehicles are approved, we will get articles about how they're dangerous every time one of them gets a flat tire.
• If Tesla takes longer to get their cell production up to speed than expected, we will hear that the growth story is dead
• Something something Chinese Government
• Model Y takes some demand from Model 3? Tesla is outdated
• Every time a cheaper EV is released - Competition is here and Tesla is Doomed!!
• At some point Musk will retire - Will Tesla be able to continue without their visionary leader (completely ignoring the decades of asserting he was a liability to Tesla's survival).

This is just la petite mort. You'll be ready for action again in no time

 

[CorneliusXX]

Strokes of genius

It's been obvious to many here for some time that you're a stable genius.

 

[Toumal]

Don't worry, Tesla continually pushes the envelope. There's plenty of opportunity for shorts to meddle again. And, if the stock price runs off again the "overvalued" complaints will emerge from their graves like deranged zombies.

Completely agree. Look at Amazon. Or heck, google "Forbes iOS nasty surprise".

 

[CorneliusXX]

There's something IMHO weird about Rivian.

Why don't they ever seem to be doing anything?

They're a company with billions of dollars in cash, and yet look at that place - it's like a ghost town. They've had the factory for two whole years - much of one year while they've been stuffed to the gills with cash - but they're not expected to complete demo work until the end of this year?

But then suddenly they're supposed to tool for mass production in half a year?

Look at what GF3 has looked like all past year, a constant hive of activity, inside and out. Even when you couldn't see the inside, there was a constant stream of cars and delivery vehicles coming and going, people swarming everywhere. Rivian? You expect to see tumbleweeds blowing by.

Check them out on satellite. I know the imagery isn't realtime (all we know is that it's from 2019), but still:

Google Maps

Barren. Still with a joke left by the previous occupants sitting outside:

View attachment 470346

Seriously, you've had this place for two years and you haven't even taken the time to remove that?

I don't get it. What on Earth have these people been doing? Are they actually serious about production?

Potemkin Village!!

Great observation. If Rivian didn't have the investor list they have, this would be a giant red flag for a fraudulent company.

Historically Rivian have been very slow and deliberate in their actions - they were in stealth mode for the best part of a decade.