Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Not sure about any of this but I could certainly see PG&E creating neighborhood microgrids based on megapacks to circumvent these outages.

A trial would almost certainly be quick to deploy.

The problem I would guess is those microgrids would still depend on poorly maintained power poles, which are supposedly everywhere, not just in the more rural areas or in long-distance lines.

 

[woodisgood]

Anyone who owns a house should be able to finance a solar/power wall if they handle their personal finances correctly. Buying a whole house generator that sits there 99% of the year vs a solar system that let's nets you free power and lets you arbitrage peak vs on-peak pricing should be a no-brainer. Even just powerwalls seems to be a better option in most cases. Generators are loud, stinky, and require maintenance. It really does go back to proper planning etc.

Well it's the same as an ICE being dirty and requiring lots of service, but you won't be able to convince many people to purchase a Model 3 because it's 10K more than the car they are used to getting. Just the smart ones that consider TCO, etc....

We need more than just the smart ones...

 

[Zaxxon]

Of course...I mean, I was assuming that the hydrogen (bomb) was being stored in your garage next to your charger. Perhaps that was an unrealistic assumption?

Ha. True. I know you are and were being facetious, but I had to include the example since the fuel cell situation is what folks try to bash BEVs for, only, you know, real. Fuel cell infrastructure will never catch up to where BEV fueling infrastructure is today. We've already passed the capability point for BEVs which makes widespread fuel cell investment a complete non-starter.

 

[KarenRei]

So, Elon just called Top Gear out on their fake drag race:

Treelon on Twitter

Fun times

Also: Come on stock, do something interesting!

 

[Nocturnal]

Well it's the same as an ICE being dirty and requiring lots of service, but you won't be able to convince many people to purchase a Model 3 because it's 10K more than the car they are used to getting. Just the smart ones that consider TCO, etc....

We need more than just the smart ones...

We do an awful job teaching people basic concepts like opportunity cost and return on investment. I don't know how many people have argued with me that they don't care that they could save a thousand dollars a year in gas because their twice a year long trips would take an extra couple hours...obviously not realizing that their time is worth far less than $500 an hour.

So, Elon just called Top Gear out on their fake drag race:

Treelon on Twitter

Fun times

Also: Come on stock, do something interesting!

I'm ok with Tesla being boring at 315 for a while TBH.​

 

[JusRelax]

So, Elon just called Top Gear out on their fake drag race:

Treelon on Twitter

Fun times

Also: Come on stock, do something interesting!

I'm surprised you didn't also mention this tweet from Treelon:

Is that the same software update that was mentioned during the Q3 earnings call, or is it something else? 50HP is much more than a 3% increase, isn't it?

 

[Big Dog]

So that leads me to the question. In America, we have over 200 million adults. Since the poverty rate is around 14%, that leaves about 172 million adult Americans who could possibly afford an EV. If we split that number into 2, that leaves us with 86 million adults not living in poverty that believe in climate change. Yet, EVs make up about ~2% of car sales in America. Tesla has literally sold around 500,000 cars in the U.S. in its entire existence.

The number 1 and 2 selling cars in the US has a list price of <$20k. No way even a medium income family ($60k) can afford a BEV. Sure, a underpowered Prius hybrid could be had, but what's the fun in that butt-ugly econo-box?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also: Come on stock, do something interesting!

The Upper Bollinger band is moving up $5/day right now; "a rising tide" floats my boat. Way better that swimming up stream against the Technicals. Now they're working in our favor, and lifting the expected range of the SP. I'll take it!

Cheers!

 

[woodisgood]

The number 1 and 2 selling cars in the US has a list price of <$20k. No way even a medium income family ($60k) can afford a BEV. Sure, a underpowered Prius hybrid could be had, but what's the fun in that butt-ugly econo-box?

A big part of this is whether we really believe we are quickly headed to a future where robotaxis are widely available. When the average family doesn't NEED to purchase a vehicle, we don't need to be working on getting them cheaper.

Autonomy could be the lifeline for legacy automakers, but oh wait, they suck at that too.

 

[Nocturnal]

The number 1 and 2 selling cars in the US has a list price of <$20k. No way even a medium income family ($60k) can afford a BEV. Sure, a underpowered Prius hybrid could be had, but what's the fun in that butt-ugly econo-box?

It's not like those <20k cars are fun to drive either, or attractive.

 

[VValleyEV]

And then there are those who are ready to go out and buy but don’t see a suitable vehicle available. Saw this first hand a few weeks ago. Fellow associated with one of our suppliers. He has been asking us about EV’s for awhile and had been in our leaf a few times. I recommended he test drive a model 3 which he and his wife did. They then took an SL Eplus Leaf for a drive as well as a few others like a bolt etc. Talked to him one day and he was very frustrated as the Nissan dealer said it would be 6 to 8 months before he can get an SL EPlus. I know this true because that’s how long it’s taking ours to arrive. (We ordered in August). I asked why not just order model 3 Tesla as he loved the test drive, it’s a great car and available in 2 months. Now get this. He said he had done lots of research on the car and figured he would need two cars just because one would always be broke down and service takes forever. I said that doesn’t sound right and he said a lot of it came from this board. The takeaway is that like it or not people are getting that impression. I recommended he talk to real model 3 owners to get a better idea of local service and that boards like Tesla motors club tend to focus on problems and not the good things. That’s why boards like this exist. Problem solving. He since told me he has ordered an Leaf SL Eplus. I told him to avoid the Nissan Leaf board at all costs. .

Soooo, yes we all know Tesla has service issues, but maybe a thread with service and ranger success stories can provide a little balance. Just a suggestion to the Tesla crowd. There must be some good reports.

Not a Tesla owner...but a huge fan.

From a Tesla owner with a small TSLA holding, on the subject of “EV fanatic has trouble finding suitable EV”, and “service/repair FUD”:

I have anecdotal evidence that service/repair FUD has a real effect. And without service/repair FUD, the lack of a Tesla “affordable” SUV/CUV is a real barrier to first-time EV buyers that will be removed with the introduction of the Y.

Exhibit A:

I neighbor has a Prius, has been wanting a BEV for years, even has is garage already wired for 240v for the purpose. He has been talking me about it for about a year, starting off with what I would call “Anything but Tesla”, mostly because he had swallowed 100% of the FUD on Elon/Tesla/TSLA/Everything.

TL;DR: he ordered a Y yesterday. Beyond FUD, barriers were lack of Tesla CUV/SUV to take home today, and worries about service/repair.

The long story:

• He started with the i-Pace because his next-door neighbor (not me) bought one and he liked the looks. Well, what ensued was range hell and service hell, that idea went away. He really wants and likes the traditional looks of a small SUV, loves the cargo capacity of his Prius, so he looked at every existing BEV plus all those planned or in limited production.

• He would come to me with news about car after car telling me how great it is, and I would ask “do you want to take it on road trips or just day trips?”. Answer was always “I want to do a lot of long road trips including to out-of-the-way places”. I patiently explained each time that, if you want to do that now, look at range and charging infrastructure, Tesla is your only answer. On-the-road charging for non-Tesla might get a lot better in a few years, or might not, but it ain’t gonna be for a while. Otherwise, there are lots of reasonable choices if you just want a fun BEV to drive around and charge at home

• It took a very long time, including getting him to use “abetterrouteplanner dot com” to run his hypothetical trips to all his favorite places in multiple different BEVs. BUT he finally got there, saying “ok you are right, Tesla is my only choice unless I want to wait, and I am too old to wait, I want something now”.

• OK, after driving my S he decided Teslas are great but he wants something more affordable than the S, so he drove a 3 and liked it. EXCEPT OMG it is too low, hard for old guys like me to get in and out, and cargo is good for a sedan but still no hatchback. He really really wanted to talk himself into buying the 3 because he can get it now, but he just couldn’t do it, even after getting a really close look at my wife’s 3 that she bought a month ago. So if it is a Tesla, it has to be a Y.

So then he gets to “I have to either wait a few years for non-Tesla charging networks to get better, or order a Tesla Model Y. Which do I do and why?”

He kept bringing me daily “whatabout” objections to Tesla that would argue for waiting for a competitor. Mostly just more FUD that was easy to dispel by patiently sending him a few facts. The biggest one? Concerns over service/repair.

Q: The closest service center is a 2-hour drive away? How can that work?
A: Pretty well when you have a car that needs almost no service. I gave him the link to service recommendations.

Q: But what about minor problems with the car shortly after delivery?
A1: If you have them, make a list, make an appointment and take the car in. Chances are they can get all that stuff fixed in a few hours, and they will provide transportation for you if it is more than an hour or so of work. There are some great food/shopping options near that dealer.
A2: Tesla has mobile service (“Really?”, he says) that is getting more capable all the time. They will suggest mobile service if they thing that will work, and a guy will come directly to your house at the appointed time. (“Holy crap, really?” he says). Where we live it is currently scheduled for one day a month, but I expect that to improve as more cars are sold here, I see more and more of them here all the time.

Q: But what about repair from fender benders. I read on blabla social media site, stories about folks waiting for months and months to repair a fender.
A1: Some of what you read is invented, and some of it is old news. Tesla has a network of approved but independent body shops, there have been complaints about wait times, plus some folks have gone to body shops not approved by Tesla and have experience really awful wait times. NEWS FLASH: Tesla service centers and even Tesla mobile service folks have started doing their own body work for small jobs, taking some of the pressure off the body shop network, and parts delivery timeliness has improved. See for example: Tesla starts doing some of its own bodywork at service centers and mobile service - Electrek
A2: If you are going to order a Tesla Model Y, by the time you take delivery sometime next year, it seems very likely that the service part of the business will continue to improve between now and then. You should watch this closely by following some actual statistics, beware of anecdotes. You might start with the latest Bloomberg survey of Model 3 satistaction, notice the improvement in defects reported YoY. That should translate to Model Y because some 80% of the parts are believed to be in common, with a lot of the manufacturing technology shared.

Helpful at all??

 

[Svetlin]

The number 1 and 2 selling cars in the US has a list price of <$20k. No way even a medium income family ($60k) can afford a BEV. Sure, a underpowered Prius hybrid could be had, but what's the fun in that butt-ugly econo-box?

It's not like those <20k cars are fun to drive either, or attractive.

They are also not number 1 and 2, but number 7 and 8 after 3 pickup trucks and 3 SUVs that cost more and sell more than the Toyota Camry and the Honda Civic. And the Camry actually costs more than $20k.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have to point out that unless it's a direct drive from the motor to the wheels all EV's do in fact have gears. The Tesla transaxle has a number of gears in it.

The word "gear" in this context stands for "gear ratio", not physical gears. "Top Gear" means the highest gear ratio, not physical metal gear. Tesla only have one gear ratio. Hence it makes no sense to talk about the highest gear or the top gear. Because the highest gear is also the lowest gear. There is only one.

 

[madodel]

So, Elon just called Top Gear out on their fake drag race:

Treelon on Twitter

Fun times

Also: Come on stock, do something interesting!

DOW and NASDAQ are down and TSLA and AAPL are up. Fun day to me. Interesting can be bad as well as good. Do you really want to live in interesting times? I prefer seeing TSLA move up slowly over time and holding gains.

 

[pnungesser]

Hearing the CEO of FIAT say that they might just buy EV platforms from Tesla is really interesting news, particularly with the PSA merger. That would be the world's 4th largest auto maker and one that is very far behind on emissions and EV tech.

Yes and no. For sure many people don't walk the walk, but it's also not realistic to think that consumers can really make more than a small dent. That said, they absolutely should be pushing politicians to move forward. Personally, I'm not voting for anyone who doesn't have a solid plan to address this.

On the science denier side (sorry, not sorry), they are now split between the people who think that the planet is NOT warming, and those who admit it is but that we aren't impacting it. That's an improvement at least.

OT Let's not forget the religious right that takes it literally that God gave man dominion over the earth and all of its inhabitants and we can exploit anyway we want! You can't win against that argument. After all, the end is coming soon anyway.

 

[VValleyEV]

New Bloomberg data out!
Tesla’s Hell Moves From the Production Line to the Repair Shop

Summary (with graphics) here:
Nafnlaus on Twitter

THANK YOU FOR THAT GREAT SUMMARY!

I get a lot of questions from friends about Tesla service, especially since closest is 2hrs from here and we get a monthly mobile service van visit to the area. So this will help a great deal, saved you twitter link to distribute your summary.

My first experience with mobile service will be in a few weeks, will be interesting to see how well it works:

• My wife’s new Model 3 is awaiting the HomeLink (integrated garage door opener) installation, will be done by mobile service. I was sad I couldn’t get the car delivered with that option already installed, but it is not a big deal.
• On the same day they will fix a minor warrantee issue with my 2018 Model S: passenger side mirror folds inward too far, such that it touches the chrome molding on the door. They said they are going to bring a whole new mirror, and a new chrome strip in case they believe it has been dented by the mirror. I suspect it has always been that way, and it just took me a very long time to notice.

 

[Krugerrand]

I was telling a friend of mine the other day to think about where battery technology would be had EVs won the day in the early days of the automobile - or even had they gained momentum some time in the last 30 years. I truly believe we'd have a battery 1/4th the size of today's battery's powering cars for over 1000 miles.

The only real question is - is this finally the time for EVs to gain that momentum? I know a LOT of people here think so, but there are 10 times more people on the other side who believe it's just a passing fad (or an environmentalists movement that's being forced on everyone) - and trust me, the oil companies, dealership associations, and legacy automakers are doing their best to push any narrative they can to kill this momentum before the real tipping point truly arrives. With only ~2% of overall sales, we are nowhere near that tipping point yet. That's why I don't feel good when other EVs and EV companies continue to fail. If the new EV makers fail, and the legacy manufacturers continue to produce vehicles on par with the Jaguar IPace and the Audi Etron, this movement will be over in less than 5 years. Tesla simply can't do it alone.

I disagree because I can trump your 10xs people on the other side with my 10xs people on this side. It’s a silly argument.

The fact is every day more and more people become aware of Tesla and other EVs. Eventually, just as almost everybody knows what a TV is, whether they own one or not, almost everybody will know what a Tesla/EV is in a short period of time. (I accept that there will be people in remote areas of the Amazon, Outback, and downtown Chicago that will never know.)

And wrong question. The ‘real’ question is will we transition fast enough to sustainable energy generation and consumption before the planet flips us the bird and says adios?

People keep repeating, Tesla can’t do it themselves. So far they’re doing a pretty good job of it. I’m betting we’re witnessing an unintentional empire being built.

I see a very clear picture: OEMs/fossil fuels/short sellers/et al have been chasing Tesla through the juggle, invisible. Hunting by heat signatures and shooting lasers from their shoulder. Tesla has been taking hits and has looked to be a goner a few times. But all along Tesla has been laying traps... The countdown has begun and when it gets to zero, poof!

 

[Krugerrand]

Agreed. Tesla does not and will not dilute its new product announcements by launching them at auto shows. The pickup launch will be a huge event. If Tesla plans to show it at the LA Auto Show, then the launch should be before that point.

Makes sense to reveal Pickup before LA show, get people buzzing about it and Tesla, then go to the LA show and give a crap ton of test drives of Tesla’s other vehicles and sell lots more.

 

[FreqFlyer]

So, a few problems:
1. They need to actually be “just as capable”. Thus far, the best efforts by everyone else have fallen far short. They just aren’t good at this. And, by the way, not just in terms of range/performance. Software ecosystem and features tie in here as well.
2. They need battery supplies to “flood the market”. Tesla is the only company with access to the quantity of batteries required to actually do much of anything.
3. Lots of claims of “cheaper”, but I’ve not seen that actually pan out... anywhere. The cheaper EV’s are all severely limited(either cheaper by the S/X by being the size of a 3 or limited range city cars) and/or sold at a heavy loss in small numbers for the ZEV credits. Nobody is managing the kind of economies Tesla is. Partially because Tesla just has better engineers for this but also partially because they’re so vertically integrated.

You are describing the market as it today, I said years from now when an EV is no longer a novelty but commonplace outside of California. When having an EV on the dealer lot is like having a car with a different trim. From the responses I see people cannot for see a time when EVs are common place.

This conversation got started by someone stating what should Tesla be wary of, this. A market flooded with EVs.

 

[kbM3]

THANK YOU FOR THAT GREAT SUMMARY!

I get a lot of questions from friends about Tesla service, especially since closest is 2hrs from here and we get a monthly mobile service van visit to the area. So this will help a great deal, saved you twitter link to distribute your summary.

My first experience with mobile service will be in a few weeks, will be interesting to see how well it works:

• My wife’s new Model 3 is awaiting the HomeLink (integrated garage door opener) installation, will be done by mobile service. I was sad I couldn’t get the car delivered with that option already installed, but it is not a big deal.
• On the same day they will fix a minor warrantee issue with my 2018 Model S: passenger side mirror folds inward too far, such that it touches the chrome molding on the door. They said they are going to bring a whole new mirror, and a new chrome strip in case they believe it has been dented by the mirror. I suspect it has always been that way, and it just took me a very long time to notice.

Also point out that Tesla is #1 in customer satisfaction which includes service along with everything else (so quite obviously service issues are greatly exaggerated). He’s free to buy another car, but the he’d be choosing one that will give less satisfaction.