Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrederickBound]

Those people will die off.

Show me anyone under 30 that can't operate a smartphone or iPad in their sleep. Including toddlers.

I don't think you understand the issue. It's not that people can't use a smart phone. It's that they often don't work right. Punch a button and it didn't take it because your finger moved slightly and it interpreted it as a swipe. Have your finger hovering over the button too close and it takes it as a button press. Having the user interface change simply because you did an update. Then there are all the new bugs introduced with every update. The threads here are full of them.

I never once had to worry with problems caused by an update on my pickup. It ran for 20 years until it was creamed by a big truck. Otherwise I'd still be driving it. I fully expect that at some point my model X will simply no longer be eligible for updates and/or it gets bricked by one. Right now there are any number of Teslas being left in the dirt without useful updates. Yet they still get updated with the important stuff like whoopee cushions.

 

[Electroman]

With the Teslas, It's kind of hard to build a relationship with your service advisor when your cars never need service! We will take my wife's 3 in for the first time next year at around the 2 year mark but I don't think it will need anything besides replacing the brake fluid and rotating the tires since we will be there anyway.

I just went for 25k mile 19 month service for my M3 - tire rotation, wheel alignment, washer fluid fill up - invoice $250+.

So the guy takes one look at my tires and tells me that it has worn evenly and doesn't need rotation, and it has only another few thousand miles life in it and that would be a good time to do the alignment when i replace them, unless I feel it needs alignment now. I insisted that they atleast jack it up and look at the brakes and other fluids.

15 minutes and $0 later I was on my way.

 

[Buckminster]

We haven't even managed to get graphene into everyday use - now I have to get excited about it's even cooler cousin!
The next graphene? Shiny and magnetic, a new form of pure carbon dazzles with potential | Science | AAAS
Motor rotor magnets in 30 years?

 

[FrederickBound]

Funny you bring up cellphones. Wasn’t all that long ago that people said the exact same things about those, for the exact same reasons.

Tell that to my blind friend who uses a flip phone just fine. I was trying to encourage him to try using a smart phone he could talk to. Then he was with me in my Tesla when the voice commands stopped working.

Smart phones are pretty funny too. Sometimes I forget to turn off the airplane mode when leaving the house and ask it to turn that off. You know what it says... "Sorry, I can't do that. i'm in airplane mode".

 

[PeterJA]

Wasn't that the Roadster's COPVs that were "literally bulletproof"?

In case you missed it, Elon said it about Cybertruck in this interview (at 11:10):
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk

I think he blurted it out because he is so proud and excited about the vehicle. He said elsewhere that it is the best thing Tesla has ever made. That's quite a statement.

The more I think about these statements, the more I believe @Words of HABIT is correct that Cybertruck will be a phenomenal success. Whether the market will believe it when they see the prototype is less certain. Autonomy Day was an astonishing presentation that nobody believed except experts like the ARK analyst who formerly worked for Nvidia. And the truck's radically innovative appearance will incite FUD and seem dubious to analysts with no imagination.

But Tesla has produced four vehicles now, so only TSLAQ nitwits will doubt that Cybertruck is coming. And it will have specs/capabilities that non-experts can understand (unlike the arcane technology of autonomy). When folks see it is everything Elon has promised, the stock may react differently than after past product announcements. There's a first time for everything.

 

[ZsoZso]

I agree. That’s far too US-centric. Worldwide, the pickup truck market is actually pretty small.

According to these sites, even world-wide Ford F-series pickup is in #1/#2 position:
2018 (Full Year) International: Global Top-Selling Car Models - Car Sales Statistics
In 2018 #1 was Ford F-series with 1,076,153 sales, #2 was Toyota Corolla 934,348.

Focus2move| World Best Selling Car - The top 100 in 2019
In 2019 upto July numbers show Corolla in 1st place with 713,971 followed by #2 Ford F-series 622,867.

Of course, in a few years Model Y will leave them both behind

 

[StealthP3D]

In case you missed it, Elon said it about Cybertruck in this interview (at 11:10):
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk

I think he blurted it out because he is so proud and excited about the vehicle. He said elsewhere that it is the best thing Tesla has ever made. That's quite a statement.

The more I think about these statements, the more I believe @Words of HABIT is correct that Cybertruck will be a phenomenal success. Whether the market will believe it when they see the prototype is less certain. Autonomy Day was an astonishing presentation that nobody believed except experts like the ARK analyst who formerly worked for Nvidia. And the truck's radically innovative appearance will incite FUD and seem dubious to analysts with no imagination.

But Tesla has produced four vehicles now, so only TSLAQ nitwits will doubt that Cybertruck is coming. And it will have specs/capabilities that non-experts can understand (unlike the arcane technology of autonomy). When folks see it is everything Elon has promised, the stock may react differently than after past product announcements. There's a first time for everything.

I think you have an excellent analysis there. And I like that you said the stock "may" react differently than to past product announcements. Because that's about the only part of your analysis that I think is not basically a given.

 

[Buckminster]

Elon is playing us like fools. The Roadster unveil was designed to distract us from the Semi. The Y unveil made us forget the Roadster. Now the Cybrtrk is replacing the Y in our little ol brains.

This is like the Inception movie - just remember, we are here for the Semi - everything else is a dream people.

 

[JustMe]

In case you missed it, Elon said it about Cybertruck in this interview (at 11:10):
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk

But Tesla has produced four vehicles now, so only TSLAQ nitwits will doubt that Cybertruck is coming. And it will have specs/capabilities that non-experts can understand (unlike the arcane technology of autonomy). When folks see it is everything Elon has promised, the stock may react differently than after past

I think this is a key point. The queuers are pushing hard that Tesla/Musk is all about vaporware. But this time next year Tesla will have brought six diverse models in production with the Y and semi coming out.

Tesla and Musk take a lot of flak for missing expected timelines, but I attribute this to being perfectionists about their products. And that’s OK with me. Motor trend named the Model S the best car ever. And if Elon is right that the pickup is better than the best car ever made it will set the market ablaze.

 

[CorneliusXX]

What a brilliant idea, why didn’t I think of that?

[Oh that’s right, I did. Founded the Tesla Owners Club of New Mexico in 2015 with one purpose: organize owners all over the state to pressure Tesla and the legislature and the franchise dealers to change the unfair law. We have fought in every legislative session ever since and will in 2020 as well. We’ve grown to 367 members.]

Sounds like you will have to start a New New Mexico to get a local dealership.

Quintillions.

Because, as all know, the laws of supply and demand do not apply in extraterrestrial economies......

Don't you know that supply and demand are held down by gravity. I thought that would have been obvious.

 

[capster]

There are even fewer billionaires outside US - and in places like China (which has a lot) I doubt the billionaires would register in an obscure website to get Tesla info. They have specialized wealth management firms do the investing. Infact most people with a substantial investment (in millions) have wealth managements firms do all the investing.

Forget billionaires, even hedge fund managers who actively trade Tesla may not be registered here. They will ask an intern to scan TMC. Bigger ones will hire people like SoylentBrown to do in depth investigation and likely have a lot more info than we do.

Not a billionaire, don’t play one on TV, but I suspect billionaires, as do I, seek the best information. This thread is gold (thanks to all of you who make meaningful contributions). Personally, I wouldn’t trust an intern to synthesize the gestalt here, despite the fact I can’t always keep up with this thread.

 

[Runarbt]

Deliveries to EU looking good - something new is happening.

Q4 so far is way WAY above what previous Qs have been half way into the quarter.

Montana Septic on Twitter

What has changed?

Have they smoothed out deliveres during the Q - for the first time, or are production increased?
If deliveries start earlier - will this have an effect on delivery costs?
Will there be a lot more cars in-transit by Qs end, so number will be affected?

How are deliveries to US, anyone?

 

[Fact Checking]

Deliveries to EU looking good - something new is happening.

Q4 so far is way WAY above what previous Qs have been half way into the quarter.

Montana Septic on Twitter

What has changed?

Have they smoothed out deliveres during the Q - for the first time, or are production increased?
If deliveries start earlier - will this have an effect on delivery costs?
Will there be a lot more cars in-transit by Qs end, so number will be affected?

How are deliveries to US, anyone?

Incidentally I posted about this in the finance thread shortly before you wrote that, here's a repost:


I think there's an increasing chance that Tesla will be able to surprise us positively in Q4 again:

• Q4 European deliveries are intriguingly high so far, per the graph posted by @KarenRei:
• 
  
  
• This suggests (but doesn't prove) a substantially higher early quarter production rate in Fremont compared to Q3. Just 35 days into Q4 Tesla started delivering at late-Q3 rates (!).
• This graph by @JustMe shows record Q4 units underway to Europe via ships:
• 
  
  
• The rate is significantly beyond any previous quarter: 30-40% higher than Q2, if the "ship loading hours" method is accurate.
• We still don't have an answer to the mystery production increase leak from Jerome, back in July: “While we can’t be too specific in this email, I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”
• Q3 Model 3 production was 79k, up from 72k in Q2 - which I don't think matches the tone of Jerome's email.
• There's the leak to Cleantechnica about 7,000 excess Q3 battery packs sent to China:
• Tesla Gigafactory 3 Has ~7,000 Battery Packs In Stock For Chinese Model 3 Production, Will Use LG Chem Cells In 2020 | CleanTechnica
• U.S. order book appears to be almost 100% full in Q4 already, according to Tesla's own "weeks of delivery" estimates. (Which tend to lag true demand.)
• EU order book has closed for Q4 deliveries yesterday: most configs are for February 2020 delivery only.
• Inventory levels are very low in the U.S., to the extent Tesla allows us to see them.
• The 10-Q has shown a significant increase in non-finished goods inventory. Part of it could be battery packs for GF3 - but maybe they stockpiled parts for Fremont as well, for a full quarter demonstration of maximum sustained production rates?

Those 5-8 independent pieces of data/clues point towards a skillfully masked attempt by Tesla to hit the ball out of the ballpark in Q4: they might have sandbagged Q3 production and deliveries to maximize Q4 results.

If they do then even Q2 margins would be enough for record Q4 revenue and record GAAP profits.

And here's a final mystery: in their Q4 report Tesla updated the 360k-400k 2019 deliveries guidance range to 360k only. Everyone, including me, interpreted this as an admission that they cannot hit 400k and can barely hit 360k in the best of cases.

But there's another possible explanation for why they removed the 400k upper guidance ...

Anyway, calling Q4 a record quarter at this point is premature I suspect (the rates of ships could slow down, U.S. deliveries could be weaker, etc.), but the evidence so far is incredibly intriguing, and there's not a single counterfactual I've been able to find, other than Tesla's track record of punishing our optimism most of the time.

Not advice, as usual.​

 

[avoigt]

In case you missed it, Elon said it about Cybertruck in this interview (at 11:10):
Fireside Chat: Lt Gen Thompson & Elon Musk

I think he blurted it out because he is so proud and excited about the vehicle. He said elsewhere that it is the best thing Tesla has ever made. That's quite a statement.

The more I think about these statements, the more I believe @Words of HABIT is correct that Cybertruck will be a phenomenal success. Whether the market will believe it when they see the prototype is less certain. Autonomy Day was an astonishing presentation that nobody believed except experts like the ARK analyst who formerly worked for Nvidia. And the truck's radically innovative appearance will incite FUD and seem dubious to analysts with no imagination.

But Tesla has produced four vehicles now, so only TSLAQ nitwits will doubt that Cybertruck is coming. And it will have specs/capabilities that non-experts can understand (unlike the arcane technology of autonomy). When folks see it is everything Elon has promised, the stock may react differently than after past product announcements. There's a first time for everything.

What makes me quite confident too is that Elons brother Kimbal made some very strong statements about the truck too. As a multi purpose utility, remembering the specs and the low price the release a while ago it will likely define a new segment on its own.

Nevertheless we have seen in the past that the public opinion often does not see the obvious which is one reason why people doubted the success of the Model 3 to happen and still don't and the S,3 and Y are mainstream cars where the truck is cyberpunk IOW its not for everybody.

For that reason I expect a huge negative and FUD campaign to happen assuming a polarizing design and many people will naturally not like it while other will love it and sell the house to get one. If thats the case we may see a negative impact on the SP at least for a short time.

 

[Fact Checking]

Btw., my wife tried to solve the Cybrtrk Easter egg and puzzle, by printing it out on paper, cutting out & rearranging the 10 individual pieces:

​

But what she got was not a truck:

​

 

[Green46]

CYBRTRK interest will be huge. Thursday November 21st, 2019 will be a watershed moment for Tesla, and personal transportation. The 2016 Tesla M3 reveal event will pale in comparison.

The worldwide market for pick-up trucks far outpaces sedans by a factor of four to five.
Ford sold 909,330 F-series pick-up trucks. The three best selling vehicles are all pick-ups.
The best selling sedan is the Toyota Camry in 8th place at 343,439 with the Honda Civic in 9th place at 325,760.
20 Best-Selling Cars And Trucks Of 2018

Looks like that is only for US market. Worldwide I expect sedans to outpace trucks by far more than 4-5.

 

[RobbyJ]

Ok so cybrtruck unveiling prediction time!
Since the unveiling will be partly outdoors, I predict they will have 1 or 2 trucks powering a construction site. They'll have some big lights and construction materials like power drills, cement mixers etc. being powered by the truck(s).

So there's my prediction! Don't know if it's been posted yet, if not I called it first!

 

[Prunesquallor]

We haven't even managed to get graphene into everyday use - now I have to get excited about it's even cooler cousin!
The next graphene? Shiny and magnetic, a new form of pure carbon dazzles with potential | Science | AAAS
Motor rotor magnets in 30 years?

LOL. “Adamantia”. Maybe useful for skeletal augmentation?

 

[aubreymcfato]

(fishing for disagrees, but)
As a European, I'm extremely cold about the CYBRTRK, I fear it will be highly misinterpreted here. A huge behemoth offers too many arguments to shorts/bears from the green/environmental side.
If it's like a hummer, it will be a PR disaster, at least here. Look how much flak SUVs get (and rightly so...).
In climate change world, humanity got in love with a 30% less efficient type of car...

What I'd love to see is an efficient, very useful truck.
Something that could help workers all over the world, something that could be customized in an ambulance and that could power a lot of sanitary tools.
If the truck is useful and customizable, it could have a really global market

 

[Fact Checking]

A huge behemoth offers too many arguments to shorts/bears from the green/environmental side.

Gasoline and diesel pickup trucks with average mileage put around ~30-50 tons of CO₂ in the atmosphere, every single year. They are also very popular globally - so they are a prime target for emissions reduction.

Reducing those emissions to ... near zero sure is worth something to environmentalists that otherwise don't like SUVs and pickup trucks, right?