Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

Ok, who is responsible for today's MMD?

 

[Vad42]

Can't wait for the Cybrtrk reveal. Finally no more Mach-E talk

SP has been narrowly and mostly “quietly” bouncing around $350 for over a week now. Everyone is waiting for reveal I guess. I boldly predict that it will strongly move at least 5% on Friday. Probably in BOTH directions during the day.

Anyone have more concrete expectations? Anyone playing options for the reveal?

 

[jerry33]

SP has been narrowly and mostly “quietly” bouncing around $350 for over a week now. Everyone is waiting for reveal I guess. I boldly predict that it will strongly move at least 5% on Friday. Probably in BOTH directions during the day.

Anyone have more concrete expectations? Anyone playing options for the reveal?

A guaranteed 50% success rate. Better than most analysts.

 

[EVNow]

Rachel Maddow, darling of neoliberals the left MSNBC drives a Ford pickup.

FTFY.

 

[jeewee3000]

SP has been narrowly and mostly “quietly” bouncing around $350 for over a week now. Everyone is waiting for reveal I guess. I boldly predict that it will strongly move at least 5% on Friday. Probably in BOTH directions during the day.

Anyone have more concrete expectations? Anyone playing options for the reveal?

I disagree with a 5% move on Friday.

If I had to guess between the stock going up or down after the reveal, I'd say it will drop. Reveals rarely cause bumps in the stock price now, since this is the third reveal of (4) products that are not yet released (Semi, Roadster 2, Model Y, Cybertruck). Given the delays on the semi and roadster 2 I'm assuming the market reaction to be either "meh, still a long ways off" or "OMG it's hideous! No demand!".

So my final bet is 2,7% down on Friday.

But no, I'm not playing it. Just interested in the buying interest in case of a drop. It will say a lot about the state of the current uptrend.

 

[KarenRei]

SP has been narrowly and mostly “quietly” bouncing around $350 for over a week now. Everyone is waiting for reveal I guess. I boldly predict that it will strongly move at least 5% on Friday. Probably in BOTH directions during the day.

Anyone have more concrete expectations? Anyone playing options for the reveal?

I have call spreads, with the lower ends for most NTM (Jun $360, Sep $380. .some further OTM Sep $400), and the upper ends OTM (Jun $420, Sep $450, Sep $500). Right now IV is high, which is really boosting the upper ends of the spreads, making them expensive to roll. I look forward to IV dropping post-reveal, whether the stock moves up or down. Some upwards movement of TSLA at lower IV would be very welcome IV should be back up later as we close in on Q4 deliveries.

 

[Paracelsus]

I’m not tired of the talk per sa. I’m tired of the disingenuous ‘this Mach-E (fill in whatever EV name you want) is a Tesla killer/going to give Tesla a run for its money/blah, blah, blah’.

Horse poo.

Ford copied Tesla and missed every single performance, efficiency, charging, system integration, pricing, cargo et al metric.

Aesthetics are subjective and personal taste can’t be helped, so I’ll concede some will find it pleasing to the eye.

When it hits the road and people get to drive it and live with it, then we’ll see how much Ford hit or miss even more.

When production and sales numbers hit in the next year? 2 years? 3 years? When recalls are issued. And so on, then we will be able to look back on these conversations and see a lot of people back pedal.

Great post @Krugerrand and fully agree. When we watched the Mach-E unveil, I couldn't help being reminded of the old Lee Iococca videos taking aim at Ford and others for being incompetent copycats. His message was consistently along the lines of "we even showed them how to do it and they still got it wrong"..........similar to what we just witnessed with Ford copying Tesla as you pointed out. Our family never owned Chryslers but we sure got a kick out of those commercials. As did many other people..........Lee Iococca went on to become the 3rd most trusted person in America, in large part by simply pointing out how things could - and should be done better.
Fast forward 30 years (a timeline within which history often repeats itself), and Elon can now deliver a very similar message to Ford - "we showed them how to build the Model 3 and Model Y and they still got it wrong". And he will soon be able to point out that the best the Tesla Killers can do is something similar to a 2013 Model S............copying the last version of Tesla while Tesla leaps forward with steady improvements on each model and on each year of production. Lee Iococca took a similar shot at Ford and others in this Chrysler minivan commercial many years ago:

If history continues to repeat itself in this comparison, then Elon is on his way to being the at least the 3rd most trusted name in the US. And Tesla will still be the recognized symbol of excellence in EV's 30 years from now for changing the paradigm and then staying out in front of the competition by continuing to improve its product.

(Note - my family never owned any Chrysler products.....but we sure got a kick out of the message, and we sure enjoyed hearing early Chrysler minivan owners sing the same tune that Tesla owners sing about the competition not really even existing despite all the ads of the 'next Chrysler minivan killers' on TV all the time.)

p.s. note...............using the commutative property of addition here........is it safe to now view Ford and all the German Tesla-killing auto companies as 2nd-rate mini van manufacturers. Are we in a Matrix and a cat just walked backwards?

 

[Pezpunk]

"OMG it's hideous! No demand!".

this will be the initial wave of headlines. hopefully, the actual featureset is revolutionary enough that some of those features can push through and make a few headlines of their own, but i guarantee you there will be an absolute glut of headlines and talking heads based out of NYC insisting that the Cybertruck is too ugly / crazy / quirky to sell in the midwest.

 

[UncaNed]

A little bit of humor:

I know they meant "electric vehicle models", but it also shows the mistake in understanding the situation: somehow they think that the more models released by legacy makers the more competition there is.

As I haven't been keeping up and don't feel like looking ATM I don't have numbers to put to it, but with "only three models" Tesla sells more vehicles and makes more profit than the rest of the EV market combined -- and there are plenty of models there. This reminds me (yet again) of the smart phone situation where Apple has something like 10% marketshare, but around 90% of the profits. Poor Apple, they are hamstrung by only offering a small number of models compared to the vast array of choices on the Android side.

1) If Tesla and Ford Motor are about to wage war for the electric-car crown, you wouldn’t know it from this exchange

Watched the video on this link and realized all they did is try to copy Tesla. Similar display, seats, headrests, glass roof... In the pharmaceutical industry, they refer to "me too" drugs; Mach E is just a "me too" Tesla wannabee.

Edit - A'yup. Looks like I'm a little late to the party...

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Please accept this formal invitation to post these amazing energy stories in the Energy, Environment, Policy Forum, we'd love to see you! You can share your thoughts on such wonderful topics as:

The Green New Deal
Solar PV News
Nuclear Power

or make fun energy transitions predictions....Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

and of course, the never controversial....Climate Change

Excited to see you there!

 

[Chocochip]

Folks have to remember, new EVs introduced in the market do not mean Tesla has a smaller piece of the pie - only that the pie is getting bigger.

^This!

If Ford's Mach E helps educate Fox News readers about the advantages of electric cars, and even 10% are convinced, then that's a bigger pool Tesla has the potential of selling to.

^...and this too!

More EVs -- and specifically EVs from so-called traditional car-makers -- legitimise the technology for the wider public who keep hearing how Tesla cars are rubbish, take forever to charge, don't work in cold weather and with batteries that are worthless in 3 years. You WANT these guys to make and sell EVs, because they will then promote EVs, and that helps Tesla!

The only issue with that concept is that EVs made by traditional car-makers will either have poorer performance than the equivalent ICE model sold by the same car-maker, or they will be more expensive, so as to not cannibalise their ICE lineup. However, EVs will become a mainstream option, and so the pie would get exponentially bigger! S-curve, y'all!

 

[AlexS]

Ok, who is responsible for today's MMD?

Based on this chart shorts started entering yesterday, looks like they are betting against CyberTruck event, but if there will be "one more thing" in the end of CyberTruck unveil, they can get burned.

 

[HG Wells]

Gentle men, and gentle women. I wish to draw your attention to a rather delight full increase in that which must not be mentioned.

EDIT: Spelcheck error.

 

[RoadsterPlease]

something is going on..

 

[LN1_Casey]

Gentile men, and gentile women. I wish to draw your attention to a rather delight full increase in that which must not be mentioned.

I was just about to not mention this non-mentionable. Does anyone know why?

 

[Huskyf]

354.30 1.47 % What's going ON ???

 

[Unpilot]

CNBC Tim is covering

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

That was fun. Again, again!

 

[JRP3]

Regarding previous discussions of Tesla/Panasonic cycle life these may be helpful when confronted with that question. These are older papers from around 2010 I believe.
This paper shows partial cycles to 3000 http://ma.ecsdl.org/content/MA2011-02/17/1282.full.pdf
I can't find this paper any longer, my link is dead, but I did find a copy of the graph from it which shows early versions of Panasonic NCA cells with impressive full cycle life.
http://www.embedded-world.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/pdf/batterie2011/Sonnemann_Panasonic.pdf

Obviously Tesla does not discharge that deeply so cycle life would be longer, plus this test is about cell chemistry from almost 10 years ago.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Gentile men, and gentile women. I wish to draw your attention to a rather delight full increase in that which must not be mentioned.