Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

I remember half the world freaking out about the no grille front of Model 3. Sure they were going to change that. They didn't, just tweaked it slightly but nothing big. And most people love that no grille front now. Same will happen with Cybertruck. Small tweaks, but no big changes. And most people will love it.

 

[Mike Smith]

https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-cybertruck-electric-pickup-engineering-manufacturing

'The plusses for a folded stainless steel, origami truck are compelling: no paint shop and no expensive tooling. No Godzilla-scale stamping machines stomping it with multiple strikes. Without all that, the capital and environmental costs of using stainless steel body panels are small. And big attractions for a company that's sensitive to both types of green—cash and environmentalism. Just groove the steel where it's supposed to fold (avoiding cracks) and bend it on simple, cheap machines (like I was actually doing last week with my garage vise!)

Brilliant … but prickly with trade-offs. Unlike the strength-to-weight efficiency of compound curves (feathery eggshells are the epitome), the flat-ish planes between the Cybertruck's simple bends require greater thickness to resist buckling compression loads or wrinkling oil-canning. Adding weight.

To counter this? Ditch the heavy, traditional, body-on-frame, and rethink the structure as weight-efficient trussed bridge in its simplest load-spreading configuration: a triangle set on its hypotenuse. One side is the Cybertruck's wedgy cab, the other, its tapered, sail-sided bed, their meeting point at the truck's tall peak resulting in a huge cross-sectional area for maximum stiffness.'

 

[StealthP3D]

I'm wondering when Elon is finally going to discover that other introvert tech execs are using ... professional coaches to prepare for presentations, with excellent results. Giving good presentations is a technology in essence, one which Elon should eventually acquire.

I don't know, I think Musk's appallingly terrible presentations are part of the charm. I watched the Volvo Polestar reveal. It was very slick and professionally done. But I wasn't convinced it wasn't just slick marketing making me think it was a good product. When Musk gives a presentation I walk away thinking, "wow, bad presentation, good product".

I wouldn't want to hear it from anyone else.

 

[Singer3000]

Absolutely it was amateur hour, and has been so during much of Tesla's +10 years existence, with Elon getting a solid D- grade for "public presentation performance".

Tesla is a success despite all that, and this embarrassment won't change that either. Tesla engineering has at times been "driven by embarrassment": the Model 3 panel gaps now exceed German premium car panel gap metrics.

I'm wondering when Elon is finally going to discover that other introvert tech execs are using ... professional coaches to prepare for presentations, with excellent results. Giving good presentations is a technology in essence, one which Elon should eventually acquire.

Elon has always been a slightly clunky presenter, that's part of his charm. But devoting almost the entire presentation to your vehicle being smash proof (here's a video of bullets, here's a guy on a ladder dropping a metal ball) and then casually smashing both windows without much effort is just bizarre.

Why not focus on the utility that this vehicle gives workers? Show a bunch of guys building a movie set and powering a bunch of tools off it. Show it nailing an off road dirt track. Show it driving through a stream. And as I said, show a few of them dragging a Falcon 9 first stage. All of this could have been done with Elon being his attractively awkward self. It was just poorly executed, which is a crying shame for all those that worked so hard on the vehicle.

 

[Cobbler]

Any smart investor is buying the stock tomorrow not because of the truck but because what those prices mean for future cost of batteries for Tesla. It's a good glimpse into what is going to be possible

Imagine the margin gains for not having to paint the car:
- lighter car (I know ) , faster to manufactur, no paint shop environmental permissions, no service complaints about too thin paint layers,...

$$$

 

[Cyrusis]

Decided to make a few small changes:

 

[Freder Reeve]

Decided to make a few small changes:

i find these changes pointless since the whole point of the shape is to prevent too much wind dragging on the tailgate.

 

[Krugerrand]

Oh that's ok then. The CEO and head of product design didn't know that only the wind shield had smash proof glass, not the side windows which they smashed not once but twice. When pretty much the only thing demo'd in the presentation was the ability of the shell and glass to withstand damage.

I don't take pleasure in saying it but this was amateur hour style PR.

When you can’t see the forest for the trees, you’ve got a problem. That all you’ve taken away from what was shown was a human gaffe is a reflection of your negative mindset not any deficiencies in the presenter/s.

Forgive me for preferring the man who boldly gets on that stage to show his hard work meant for all our benefits to the audience member who wants to do nothing more than point out another’s flaws.

I for one enjoyed the presentation, the music selection, the costumes, the lights and overall atmosphere. I even liked that Elon doubled down and encouraged Franz to throw the ball a second time. Why the hell not?

You don’t like the design. Fine. State what or why you don’t like it and then move on. It’s not going to be for everyone anymore than the Mach-E. But one thing is for sure, Tesla will hit all their stated goals for the three truck versions and the finished vehicle will be as good but likely better than this prototype. That can’t be said of any other OEM at this point in history.

This truck is badass from an innovation standpoint at the least. Tesla just laid the smack down on all the OEMs who thought they were getting close to being able to ‘replicate’ Tesla vehicles. Pfft! Tesla just keeps on pulling away.

 

[Singer3000]

If the media focus on the glass, then they along with their followers are complete idiots.

No they are not. Tesla called the world's attention for this presentation and then made clear in said presentation that the thing everyone should focus on above all else is the unbreakability of the shell and windows. You cannot blame the media if they focus on this fail, given how little attention was drawn to the other features of the vehicle.

It's the fault of the PR approach of the company. You are blinded if you cannot see this. Not to say that there won't be buyers for this product, clearly there will be. But today was a missed opportunity.

 

[Singer3000]

When you can’t see the forest for the trees, you’ve got a problem. That all you’ve taken away from what was shown was a human gaffe is a reflection of your negative mindset not any deficiencies in the presenter/s.

Forgive me for preferring the man who boldly gets on that stage to show his hard work meant for all our benefits to the audience member who wants to do nothing more than point out another’s flaws.

I for one enjoyed the presentation, the music selection, the costumes, the lights and overall atmosphere. I even liked that Elon doubled down and encouraged Franz to throw the ball a second time. Why the hell not?

You don’t like the design. Fine. State what or why you don’t like it and then move on. It’s not going to be for everyone anymore than the Mach-E. But one thing is for sure, Tesla will hit all their stated goals for the three truck versions and the finished vehicle will be as good but likely better than this prototype. That can’t be said of any other OEM at this point in history.

This truck is badass from an innovation standpoint at the least. Tesla just laid the smack down on all the OEMs who thought they were getting close to being able to ‘replicate’ Tesla vehicles. Pfft! Tesla just keeps on pulling away.

I can see the forest very clearly thank you. I wanted to see a slick launch for a product that could easily outsell the Model 3 and could turn the flyover states electric. We didn't get that. Perhaps we still will down the line. But you are dreaming if you think this product justifies a dedicated Giga5 for North American sales or that the launch went well.

 

[DrMazeppa]

If I have learnt something this year: down to 340 today, close at 345. Next week, 330s. Then...

Note: random numbers.

 

[Krugerrand]

I can see the forest very clearly thank you. I wanted to see a slick launch for a product that could easily outsell the Model 3 and could turn the flyover states electric. We didn't get that. Perhaps we still will down the line. But you are dreaming if you think this product justifies a dedicated Giga5 for North American sales or that the launch went well.

You must be lost if you were expecting a ‘slick’ presentation. Wrong OEM. They put a FART mode in their cars for pete’s sake!!

You’re also confused about what was going to be presented. Elon made it perfectly clear this vehicle was not going to be for everyone and that in fact very few might like it. He repeated that dozens of times over several months. He named it CYBRTRK. What part of that did you think would convert conservative pickup owners?

GF5 may or may not be a US pickup truck building factory. If it is, phase one of the build could be for CYBRTRK, while later on phase two of the build could be for ‘boremetodeath’ pickup truck.

You’ve a tendency to look for the negative in everything. When you do that you miss the positive. And so much positive was revealed tonight by Tesla it far outweighs a couple of busted windows.

You should be delighted that others who think like you have totally missed the bombshell Tesla just dropped. We all here just got ourselves another opportunity to increase our holdings for dirt cheap.

 

[RobPet]

That moment when your "ok boomer" 70 year old parents think the Cybertruck looks "tough and tight"...

The looks are growing on me personally, I think it fits Tesla well, it's just completely different than any conventional truck and I admire their 'ballsiness' of doing this. The specs as well as the functionality are really good, too.
Look forward to reading about anymore details.

 

[KarenRei]

How Tesla's Cybertruck Turns Car Engineering Norms Upside-Down - Motor Trend

'The plusses for a folded stainless steel, origami truck are compelling: no paint shop and no expensive tooling. No Godzilla-scale stamping machines stomping it with multiple strikes. Without all that, the capital and environmental costs of using stainless steel body panels are small. And big attractions for a company that's sensitive to both types of green—cash and environmentalism. Just groove the steel where it's supposed to fold (avoiding cracks) and bend it on simple, cheap machines (like I was actually doing last week with my garage vise!)

Brilliant … but prickly with trade-offs. Unlike the strength-to-weight efficiency of compound curves (feathery eggshells are the epitome), the flat-ish planes between the Cybertruck's simple bends require greater thickness to resist buckling compression loads or wrinkling oil-canning. Adding weight.

To counter this? Ditch the heavy, traditional, body-on-frame, and rethink the structure as weight-efficient trussed bridge in its simplest load-spreading configuration: a triangle set on its hypotenuse. One side is the Cybertruck's wedgy cab, the other, its tapered, sail-sided bed, their meeting point at the truck's tall peak resulting in a huge cross-sectional area for maximum stiffness.'

I adore clever engineering solutions and hate seeing design sacrifices made for some random person's aesthetic preferences. Reading about the engineering reasons behind this makes me extremely excited about it.

They're basically building it like a cantilever bridge, with the diagonals helping bear the rear loads. That's amazingly clever. Picture a top-supported cantilever bridge, and instead of a beam truss, using a continual skin. That's their loadbearing system.

And they're overcoming the flow detachment off the top by ensuring a shallow-enough angle for reattachment, and may potentially combine it with suction, which AFAIK would be a first for a mass-manufactured vehicle.

I just wish Elon could have nerded out about this sort of "logic behind the decision" stuff on-stage rather than us having to find the right article (in this case, Motor Trend) discussing it. :Þ

 

[KarenRei]

My wife has informed me it is black Friday next week. Apparently, TSLA will also be on sale. Last chance to buy before Christmas (or January I should say...)

Agreed fully. I'd love a sale before IV starts to rise in advance of the ER

 

[SteveG3]

I hate it, but I put down a deposit. It's only $100 and it: A) Might grown on me. B) Get updated to something more conventional. I think Rivian just started getting a ton of deposits....

the base Rivian is $70k and has the specs of the $40k cybrtrk, but, with only a 4.5 ft bed and seating for 5 rather than 6. that same $70k spent on the Tesla more than doubles your range, takes your 0-60 to 2.9 seconds and roughly triples your towing capacity. I don't think this was the best day for Rivian.

 

[floydboy]

I can see the forest very clearly thank you. I wanted to see a slick launch for a product that could easily outsell the Model 3 and could turn the flyover states electric. We didn't get that. Perhaps we still will down the line. But you are dreaming if you think this product justifies a dedicated Giga5 for North American sales or that the launch went well.

If you wanted a product to come out of the gate outselling Model 3, then you have it in the Model Y. When someone is attempting to break a paradigm, especially one as conservative as the american truck market, one has to break some eggs(or windows as it were). Sure they could have played it safe like Bollinger or Rivian, but copying the SLS is not how you get to a Starship.(If I may mix my meteors).

 

[Fact Checking]

Down from the $355 close to $344-$345 in the pre-market (-2.9%) - but it was basically a very early ~10k shares sell spike that set the tone - part of the bear raid I suspect. Total volume 24k shares so far - which is more than usual but still pretty thin.

 

[RobStark]

the base Rivian is $70k and has the specs of the $40k cybrtrk, but, with only a 4.5 ft bed and seating for 5 rather than 6. that same $70k spent on the Tesla more than doubles your range, takes your 0-60 to 2.9 seconds and roughly triples your towing capacity. I don't think this was the best day for Rivian.

I am pretty sure the vast majority of current Truck owners will not consider the Cybrtrk.

Most people are normal and want a normal vehicle.

So Tesla vacated that market and left it to Rivian, Ford, and GM.

Of course the danger to them is that with implied Tesla powertrain cost they can come back in two years with a conservative design at much lower price.

But today is not that day.

And Rivian isn't looking to compete with $24k Detroit work truck specials to fleets that buy in the dozens either.

 

[Dave EV]

I don't know, I think Musk's appallingly terrible presentations are part of the charm. I watched the Volvo Polestar reveal. It was very slick and professionally done. But I wasn't convinced it wasn't just slick marketing making me think it was a good product. When Musk gives a presentation I walk away thinking, "wow, bad presentation, good product".

I wouldn't want to hear it from anyone else.

Yep - most of us probably also watched the Mustang Mach E launch. IMO, the Cybertruck blew the Mach E away. The Mach E - take a mish-mash of the Model S/X/3 and put it into a CUV. Nothing new, nothing unique, besides the useless volume dial in the middle of the screen. And the presentation was SO scripted, it was totally forced, it was painful.

Contrast that to Elon wingin' it with a totally unique, throw-back futuristic design that is like nothing else on the market. Yeah, they broke some windows. Rumor has it they used the wrong size steel ball - Franz should have used the small ball, not the big one. And the fact that the window actually held together is unique - most other side windows would have completely shattered.

i find these changes pointless since the whole point of the shape is to prevent too much wind dragging on the tailgate.

The real point, is that the body is part of the structure of the car as Elon explained. A triangle makes the structure extremely strong. You notch out the triangle as the person you quoted did, and you lose a ton of strength. The design of the Cybertruck is functional, which is what makes it appealing.