Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

Interestingly, today ARK Invest did not trim any of its TSLA, which is the top holding in three of its ETFs. When it hits new highs, they usually sell some of it to raise funds to purchase more shares of laggards. Apparently Cathie Wood feels especially confident and wants to let it run.

 

[Electroman]

Today we also had the leaks from China that Q1 production capacity has almost been sold out already.

Hmm.. then why the need to slash the price by 8%?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hmm.. then why the need to slash the price by 8%?

The bullish theory would be they are ramping Giga 3 much faster than expected and/or margins are greater than expected. If you're a business that is expecting a large increase in production in a very short amount of time, you do not wait until demand starts to dry up and then react.

The reports today about orders surging was related to the fact that the price dropped.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Hmm.. then why the need to slash the price by 8%?

If you ask this question you don’t understand Elon

 

[HG Wells]

Hmm.. then why the need to slash the price by 8%?

Its times like these that the words "Were having a sale this month" would be appropriate.
Then you can jack the price back up after a month or two.

 

[skybluecgreen]

Today from IBD:
"This was another major feather in the cap for Elon Musk & Co. by handily beating (estimates) in the quarter and speaking to the momentum Tesla is seeing specifically in Europe," Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said in a note to clients. "If Tesla is able to sustain this level of profitability and demand for the company going forward, especially in Europe and China, then the stock and bull thesis will open up a new chapter of growth and multiple expansion in our opinion."
https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-climbs-deliveries-production-beat-estimates/

 

[Maitri982]

112k X 4 quarters = 438k

current analysts expectations for 2020 deliveries - 465k

There's a flood of upgrades coming.

112k was without GF3. I think we eclipse 500k deliveries in 2020.

let’s not forget tesla energy either folks.

 

[dandurston]

I think Tesla is lined up for ~550k for 2020. I think the Y will cannibolize the 3 at Fremont, so we'll see roughly:

Fremont:
S & X: 60k
M3: 230k
MY: 140k
TOTAL: 440k

Shanghai
M3: 120k

GRAND TOTAL: 550k

 

[Prunesquallor]

Interestingly, today ARK Invest did not trim any of its TSLA, which is the top holding in three of its ETFs. When it hits new highs, they usually sell some of it to raise funds to purchase more shares of laggards. Apparently Cathie Wood feels especially confident and wants to let it run.

View attachment 496170
View attachment 496171

They should modify their policy. I’d invest with them if TSLA was 20-30% of their portfolio.

 

[Maitri982]

That's because American corporations mainly gain from wars. Afterall the countries we go to war with can't come and drop bombs here. Barely anyone in Wall St sends their kids to war. Its the same way East India company stock price would go up whenever they started a new war in India.

It would be a problem only if the oil price goes up high enough to start affecting domestic consumption.

I'd carefully watch out for Iran's reaction. That could come anytime …. and depending on the reaction the market may still freakout - for eg. if they blow up a major Saudi oilfield.

Iran also has excellent hackers...not all wars in future will involve bombs and bullets.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I’m silencing the cabin noise discussion before it gets any more out of hand. Take it to the Model 3 thread.

My suggestion for a New Year’s resolution: only discuss investor related subjects.

Tell you what. I was stuck in an airport for 7 hours with nothing to do but revel in today’s silliness (That’s why I was hyper-active posting). Thanks to you all.

 

[deffu]

I'm sure we'll hear about the first customer deliveries in China.

I think along the way till er we will hear analysts busy revising earning up, upgrading tsla based on pd report. We all know them.

 

[kcveins]

I think Tesla is lined up for ~550k for 2020. I think the Y will cannibolize the 3 at Fremont, so we'll see roughly:

Fremont:
S & X: 60k
M3: 230k
MY: 140k
TOTAL: 440k

Shanghai
M3: 120k

GRAND TOTAL: 550k

That would total 560k

My projections
S+X @ 70k (~16.5-17K/quarter)
M3 @ 280K (~70k/quarter)
MY @ 120K (few scattered deliveries in Q2 and ramping up in 2H)
Fremont: 470K
China: M3 100-120K

Total just below 600K: 570-590K

 

[mongo]

That would total 560k

Not that it matters, but the top subtotal should be 430k, 550k is the correct total.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I think a lot of people, even here are underestimating demand for updated/refreshed S/X. I could see current S/X staying around these sales levels 16-18k for Q1 and Q2 but easily go back up to 25k, (maybe even higher due to pent up demand) for Q3 and Q4 with the updates, especially if the updates are significant like a big leap in range. My estimate on S/X sales for 2020 would be closer to 80-90k

 

[M3Rider]

I think Tesla is lined up for ~550k for 2020. I think the Y will cannibalize the 3 at Fremont, so we'll see roughly:

Fremont:
S & X: 60k
M3: 230k
MY: 140k
TOTAL: 440k

Shanghai
M3: 120k

GRAND TOTAL: 550k

I think S/X are low. We just got 20k in Q4 and plaid S/X are coming mid-year. There'll be a lot of 3/Ys around, these cars help differentiate to those with extra money, they should grow too YoY.

 

[MP3Mike]

here are underestimating demand for updated/refreshed S/X. I could see current S/X staying around these sales levels 16-18k for Q1 and Q2 but easily go back up to 25k, (maybe even higher due to pent up demand) for Q3 and Q4 with the updates, especially if the updates are significant like a big leap in range.

Tesla doesn't have the battery capacity to do that unless they bring back a short range model, or switch to 2170s and starve other products.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Tesla didn't have the battery capacity to do that unless they bring back a short range model, or switch to 2170s and starve other products.

Coincidences pretty nicely with the reports of Panasonic ramping from 32 to 54 Gigawatt capacity by mid 2020 and also Chinese battery cell makers ramping up as well(with Giga 3 making the battery packs).

Sure the Y will ramping but I think by Q3 2020, there would be enough battery capacity to spare 25k S/X every quarter.


…...I do not think for a second the Plaid S was running 18650 battery cells during it's lap tests.

 

[MP3Mike]

Coincidences pretty nicely with the reports of Panasonic ramping from 32 to 54 Gigawatt capacity by mid 2020 and also Chinese battery cell makers ramping up as well(with Giga 3 making the battery packs).

Sure the Y will ramping but I think by Q3 2020, there would be enough battery capacity to spare 25k S/X every quarter.


…...I do not think for a second the Plaid S was running 18650 battery cells during it's lap tests.

Don't forget the ton of cells that they need for the Semi and storage products this year...

 

[M3Rider]

Tesla didn't have the battery capacity to do that unless they bring back a short range model, or switch to 2170s and starve other products.

They could do 100k of 50/50 75kwh/100kwh.
50k of 75kwh=37.5k of 100kwh, so 87.5k of 100kwh with current capacity.