Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mich]

• Now only 10% behind the 2nd most valuable auto manufacturer in the world (VW)
• Worth $21.5 B more than Daimler
• Worth $43.2 B more than Ford (double)

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Can someone explain me valuation of Toyota?

 

[StealthP3D]

You should have asked her why she blocks people more intelligent than she is.

Isn't that the same thing as asking her why she blocks people?

 

[wipster]

Woah. That’s meta.

(that’s what the kids say nowadays isn’t it?)

LOL, don't ask me I wasn't even a kid when I was a kid!

 

[humbaba]

I decided to make a pretty picture showing how quickly the Model 3 is overtaking the Nissan Leaf on a units sold basis. Please note that the numbers used are not authoritative and use both interpolation and extrapolation. The last "real" data point is December 2019. I did play around with estimating 1Q2020 production numbers. It is significantly influenced by guessing the average output of GF3, but I got ~94k total for M3. In any case, accounting for GF3 pushes crossover back to mid month. The projection suggests Model 3 reaching 500,000 sales in February while the Leaf won't do so until August/September.

 

[jhm]

Global Deliveries 2020
New poll.

 

[ggr]

Speaking of bonds, what are the conversion prices on upcoming convertibles? Normally I don't even pay attention to that, but given how high the stock is...

There's a PDF document at Financials & Accounting | Tesla, Inc. that talks about various notes, but it was last updated in 2016, so it doesn't have the most recent capital raises in it.

The Dec. 2015 issue is due in Dec 2020, had a zero interest rate, but converts at approximately $300 (that's what it says).
The ones issued earlier this year mature in 2024, and convert at approximately $309, 2% interest.
In between those two issues there were a couple of other raises, and the Solar City acquisition, I don't know about them.

 

[StealthP3D]

Fresh Off the Press - There is a drop in NL deliveries by X% in Q1 2020 -- Anton, Seeking Alpha

I haven't tried to anticipate what the negativity will focus on this time around but they will do well to anticipate something that might dampen investor sentiment when Q4 results are announced. But their job just keeps getting more difficult.

One thing is certain, the negative articles that were pre-written in preparation for the Q4 P&D report were completely unusable and had to be 86'ed. Or perhaps they will recycle them if Tesla has a miss in the future.

 

[N5329K]

Can someone explain me valuation of Toyota?

They make a full line (except for EV's) of middle-of-the-road vehicles, from subcompacts to hulking SUV's and trucks, that are built reasonably well, are cheap to own and tend not to break, ever.
Robin

 

[humbaba]

They make a full line (except for EV's) of middle-of-the-road vehicles, from subcompacts to hulking SUV's and trucks, that are built reasonably well, are cheap to own and tend not to break, ever.
Robin

...and they make lots and lots of them. So they, in principle, have a lot of valuable assets (e.g., factories for making the same). All of which not only explains their current valuation, but also their reluctance to transition to EVs as it would mean writing off valuable assets. Their size makes them slow.

 

[SMAlset]

Oh my god, you guys - I actually opened the eyes of a Tesla doubter!

Guy was sure the Tesla delivery report was a lie because he saw pictures of parking lots full of Teslas. I educated him about logistics etc. He was surprised to learn Tesla doesn’t have dealerships. I said it’s great because online buying with fixed pricing was a MUCH better experience... he wandered off lost in thought.

lesson is to be respectful and kind to doubters .. some of them are future Tesla owners

I believe a lot of the average joes out there and apparently some analysts don't really understand Tesla's business. Not surprised they buy into some of the short articles.

 

[Nocturnal]

The fact that Tesla sold 7k more vehicles than they produced this quarter really puts another nail in the "no demand" coffin.

 

[StealthP3D]

Excellent, and just proves a point I made 1.5 years ago, and that was the model 3's noisy interior was due in part to the glass roof. On that post, I received 'dislikes' which surprised me bcos it was just common sense.

The cabin noise is a bit louder than on some comparable cars and is due to the additive effect of numerous small factors.

1) Glass roof. Headliners are specifically designed to absorb noise. This is probably the biggest difference.
2) More road noise transmitted through the chassis due to the more rigid chassis. Rubber layers could be sandwiched in between suspension components and softer anti-sway bushings could be used but the rigid chassis and lack of these things is one reason why the Model 3 handles so precisely.
3) Energy-saving tires absorb less road-noise, even with the interior layer of foam to mitigate this.

On smooth asphalt, noise is not an issue. On well-worn concrete, it can be quite loud.

 

[jerry33]

On smooth asphalt, noise is not an issue. On well-worn concrete, it can be quite loud.

Worn concrete is smooth. New concrete is rough, but it depends on the aggregate size how noisy it is.

 

[mongo]

The cabin noise is a bit louder than on some comparable cars and is due to the additive effect of numerous small factors.

1) Glass roof. Headliners are specifically designed to absorb noise. This is probably the biggest difference.
2) More road noise transmitted through the chassis due to the more rigid chassis. Rubber layers could be sandwiched in between suspension components and softer anti-sway bushings could be used but the rigid chassis and lack of these things is one reason why the Model 3 handles so precisely.
3) Energy-saving tires absorb less road-noise, even with the interior layer of foam to mitigate this.

On smooth asphalt, noise is not an issue. On well-worn concrete, it can be quite loud.

Also wind up the A pillar. (Model 3)
Solved: wind noise

 

[thx1139]

Outside of surprises is really the only thing that would make news soon wouldnt be until end of January when earnings release or am I missing something.

 

[JusRelax]

The cabin noise is a bit louder than on some comparable cars and is due to the additive effect of numerous small factors.

1) Glass roof. Headliners are specifically designed to absorb noise. This is probably the biggest difference.
2) More road noise transmitted through the chassis due to the more rigid chassis. Rubber layers could be sandwiched in between suspension components and softer anti-sway bushings could be used but the rigid chassis and lack of these things is one reason why the Model 3 handles so precisely.
3) Energy-saving tires absorb less road-noise, even with the interior layer of foam to mitigate this.

On smooth asphalt, noise is not an issue. On well-worn concrete, it can be quite loud.

Noise levels in EVs are also amplified when you don't have an ICE motor creating more white noise as well.

 

[deffu]

Just came back from a third party tesla bodyshop visit. It seems tesla service/parts department has improved a lot in terms of operation efficiency. The technician told me I dont need to wait for parts as for now tesla ships parts very quickly. He ordered some parts right before Christmas and received them on Monday. My car was hit twice with similar damage. it took me 5 months to repair last time mostly due to waiting for parts. The bodyshop assured me it wont happen this time. I also saw tesla website added a bunch of authorized bodyshops recently. I guess this is good news for tsla investors. The service hell is finally over at least for Bay Area.
will report back when the repair is done.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Just came back from a third party tesla bodyshop visit. It seems tesla service/parts department has improved a lot in terms of operation efficiency. The technician told me I dont need to wait for parts as for now tesla ships parts very quickly. He ordered some parts right before Christmas and received them on Monday. My car was hit twice with similar damage. it took me 5 months to repair last time mostly due to waiting for parts. The bodyshop assured me it wont happen this time. I also saw tesla website added a bunch of authorized bodyshops recently. I guess this is good news for tsla investors. The service hell is finally over at least for Bay Area.
will report back when the repair is done.

You live on the moon but had the car repaired in California. Wasn’t there a closer body shop

 

[KarenRei]

You live on the moon but had the car repaired in California. Wasn’t there a closer body shop

The launch pad is at Vandenberg.

 

[Evoforce]

@Chickenlittle Shut up! The sky is falling... Oh...I guess not on the Moon!