Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[X Fan]

Woe be the shorts Losses that they are incurring are madness.

Traders betting against Tesla lost $1.25 billion in one day as the stock skyrocketed above $500 (TSLA) | Markets Insider

 

[Chocochip]

The macros look down today, so that may look like one reason why we're not skyrocketing yet.

But looking at the crazy volume so far (~7M in less than 30 min? 8.2M in the first 30 min. - it was that much in the first hour yesterday!) my guess is this is a distraction tactic and there's some heavy fighting going on. There are some serious swings within just seconds, so to me this looks about to explode, depending on which side gives up first.

 

[EVMeister]

My ecstasy on TSLA is completely overshadowed by my ecstasy on BYND, tbh. If you wanna see how short squeeze looks like, check it out.

That's less impressive to me given that the ATH was $234.90 and it's now at ~$121.20.

 

[kbM3]

You sound like Adam Jonas with that range.

That 30% is such a gaudy return to me I want to say it will roughly track Tesla’s growth which Elon estimates at 50%-100%, but that’s INSANE returns. I think they’re probable, but I have trouble believing my good luck from being lazy, browsing the internet rather than being productive, becoming a huge fan of Elon and Tesla and then stumbling on this forum after I’d run out of InsideEV and Electrek articles to read

 

[bhzmark]

Polixenes came up for air tweeting briefly on Dec 26 and Jan 3, but otherwise not been heard from since Dec 12.

I am fascinated at seeing how TSLAQ are responding to this run up. Any other disappearances?

Who has gone missing from TSLAQ?

Last tweet from the prolific (and smartish) Polixenes (@Polixenes13) | Twitter was December 12:

View attachment 490432


Maybe he just went fishing?

Or who else notable from TSLAQ has gone missing?

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

That's less impressive to me given that the ATH was $234.90 and it's now at ~$121.20.

It just went up 40% + in 3 days.....

 

[FrankSG]

The macros look down today, so that may look like one reason why we're not skyrocketing yet.

But looking at the crazy volume so far (~7M in less than 30 min?) my guess is this is a distraction tactic and there's some heavy fighting going on. There are some serious swings within just seconds, so to me this looks about to explode, depending on which side gives up first.

Market makers trying to use the negative macros to instill fear and save some of their 3.5M shares worth of options expiring this week with $500 - $550 strike prices?

Probably also short term traders taking profits.

 

[Vines]

Shares on sale get em while they are hot!

Edit: Ok maybe still above yesterdays VWAP, but wow that volume!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Neoen wants Tesla big battery expansion to be on line in March | RenewEconomy

This is a good example of why it doesn't make sense for analysts to compare Tesla to other auto makers.

 

[humbaba]

Shares on sale get em while they are hot!

Edit: Ok maybe still above yesterdays VWAP, but wow that volume!

no kidding! I thought yesterday was high, but this is ~70% volume in 35 minutes...

 

[cricketman]

My ecstasy on TSLA is completely overshadowed by my ecstasy on BYND, tbh. If you wanna see how short squeeze looks like, check it out.

I sold all my BYND a few days ago and put the money into TSLA

You cant win them all!

My BYND investment was technical as I thought the share price would bounce back after dropping 50% from earlier highs, I was going to sell when it was half way back to the all time high anyway

My TSLA investment is forever!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Whatever opportunity you missed is completely irrelevant. You need to re-evaluate Tesla’s future prospects from it’s current position. I along with many others here, believe there’s a very high probability TSLA will grow on average 30%-100% per year even from here. It’s currently worth $100B, but it’s future worth can easily exceed Amazon/Apple which are valued over 10X as much as Tesla.

All that matters is where you go from here. Are you ok with stock drops as long as the company remains on track? What percentage of your assets are you willing to place in 1 company? What is your plan if it rises, or falls?

Thank you, this was actually helpful.
Now I'm the proud owner of 101 shares :-D

 

[lklundin]

Surely this has been brought up already but for Elon's options to vest the market cap needs to be over $100B for a trailing 6-month average as well as trailing 30-day. So even if we break $100B today the requirements for the first tranche of the compensation reward will not be met for some time.

So using a term from SpaceX (and other space fairing entities), when the SP hits the trigger price we can say that Elon gets his compensation NET that-day-plus-6-months (NET: No Earlier Than).

 

[Steve m]

Do we consider it a dip if it is up less then 5%?

 

[Dare]

Do we consider it a dip if it is up less then 5%?

I'll tell you how spoiled I am...I bought 4 shares at the open and they're "underwater".

 

[X Fan]

Meanwhile, Toyota recalls 700K vehicles due to fuel pump issue.

 

[mact3333]

@mact3333
By any chance was that you at the GulfCoast Town Center Supercharger yesterday?
Florida
Nice to meet an EVangelist.

Nah not me...I live across the river from Portland OR

 

[StealthP3D]

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain he was talking about all of the options winnings victory laps here. Which, as others have pointed out, are timing sensitive and could have failed to make any more. And that this is often case. So, yeah, I think someone deep in short term options with high strikes will give a FF if it drops enough to take away their profits.

Anyone deep in short-term options with high strikes had better not be there without knowing exactly what they're doing. Long term buy and hold investors don't need to worry about piddly 10% drops in the share price - they will still own the same percent of the same company.

Look at Ross Gerber. He had $105,000 worth of Tesla when it was $30/share. But he traded/sold it and now only has 200 shares left. If he had done nothing but let that $105,000 sit, his shares would now be worth $1.8 million. Instead, he still has $105,000 worth. If it triples from here he would have had $5.4 million instead of $315,000.

People think they are smarter than they are.

 

[Chocochip]

So using a term from SpaceX (and other space fairing entities), when the SP hits the trigger price we can say that Elon gets his compensation NET that-day-plus-6-months (NET: No Earlier Than).

Not necessarily. The average over the past 6 months needs to be above that level, so if we go significantly higher from here and stay up, that 6-month average may be hit earlier. Unless the conditions of the compensation specify that the counting starts when the target is first hit.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So it'll be the shorts that push the SP to a level in which Elon gets paid. Shakespeare couldn't even write a better story with such irony.

Right up there with Fiat-Chrysler paying for GF4.