Maybe you need to listen to your gut for a while. I am quite sure the result will be costly and turn you into a buy and hold investor. Just an idea.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Reminding everyone, and myself, that it's probably mentally healthier to watch the % gain/loss rather than dollar gain/loss now. 19 bucks down (only 16 aftermarket) sounds bad, but that's because we are still thinking of the $300 price range. Today was 3% red.
Tencent's not an institutional investor and therefore doesn't have to report its ownership quarterly.
I find that thinking in term of probability helps me with staying buy and hold
(1) Do I think Tesla is going to be the most important companies worth trillion(s) in the future? Yes.
(2) That would make Tesla's SP go up to at least $6,000
(3) We're not there yet.
(4) Therefore, everyday I wake up, there's a higher than 50% chance that SP will advance toward that PT, NO MATTER what today's SP is.
(5) And because I can't tell the future, I will default to listening to the simple argument in (4), instead of pretending like I can.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
ASP in this context is Avg Sale Price. VWAP is more technically correct, but its not a nice convenient 3LA
Cheers!
TSLA stock has gone down 3 out of the last 5 days. On a clear downtrend. What a disappointment.
While the drop in Li carbonate price is a welcome development for Tesla I do not believe that the price drop is directly related to the cuts in EV subsidies in China. The lithium price began to fall even as EV sales were continuing to set records in China, and it wasn’t until the fall of 2019 that the magnitude of the affect on EV sales was known.
Commodity prices are hard to forecast, especially in a rapidly evolving market. I have been following the REE market closely but not the Li mining market. But what can happen is a bunch of speculative producers pile on into a commodity whose demand is growing but bring too much supply to market - so they’re met with crashing prices instead of profits. And some will not survive - crashing supply as demand keeps growing. Causing prices to spike.
With an exponential growth in EVs I don’t think it’s safe to assume commodity prices will remain low forever. This is why Elon Musk is pondering putting a stake in the mining business so Tesla is not suddenly hit with price spikes of a critical commodity. That might be 5-10 years away.
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OT:
Regarding this week's price action, I want to point to the post from @Fact Checking from a while ago showing huge open interest in calls ranging from 400 to 520 expiring in 2 days. It is very unlikely these will be taken delivery on. the speculators will take profits and the market makers will sell shares they are using as a hedge against these calls.
While this happens every week, the situation is amplified as this expiry is a leaps series and has been open for a long time. Expect the price to be a bit weak next couple of days as the market accommodates these sales. We are likely to drift towards 500. This will be behind us next week though.
In other words if you are looking to pick up some exposure for the long term, it's hard to get a better opportunity, all else being equal. That said the run Monday and Tuesday was phenomenal and I was expecting a much worse week last week. The Chinese subsidy extension and the upgrade helped quite a bit in absorbing the supply from near-ITM calls.
Alright, that was not OT.
Regarding this week's price action, I want to point to the post from @Fact Checking from a while ago showing huge open interest in calls ranging from 400 to 520 expiring in 2 days. It is very unlikely these will be taken delivery on. the speculators will take profits and the market makers will sell shares they are using as a hedge against these calls.
While this happens every week, the situation is amplified as this expiry is a leaps series and has been open for a long time. Expect the price to be a bit weak next couple of days as the market accommodates these sales. We are likely to drift towards 500. This will be behind us next week though.
In other words if you are looking to pick up some exposure for the long term, it's hard to get a better opportunity, all else being equal. That said the run Monday and Tuesday was phenomenal and I was expecting a much worse week last week. The Chinese subsidy extension and the upgrade helped quite a bit in absorbing the supply from near-ITM calls.
Alright, that was not OT.
thanks for sharing that video - an enjoyable watch. Would like to see a followup episode since that is 4 years old.
I think so. Especially as the value was "relatively" low at around "just"17 million. The huge volume this week has been great though in making sure the tail doesn't wag the dog.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
It isn't always easy to think of a $1xx share price and a $5xx share price as being approximately the same, but part of what helps me get there is that I really don't have the energy for short term (3-6 month time scale and shorter) trading. It also helps that I lived through the 20s/30s run to the 130s/180s, that has since contined to the 280s/380s, and now into the 500s.
And it's easy now - those $350ish shares we bought didn't look so good at the $1xx price. But our total share count didn't change at $1xx and it hasn't changed now at $5xx.
I think my wife and I have the opportunity to create much more wealth than we've previously thought possible just holding the shares we have now, over the next 5-10 years. I think the likelihood that we fail is far more likely to me mucking with the plan (buy and hold Tesla for 10+ years, with line of sight to owning these shares on the day that the second of us passes from this mortal coil).
So yes, that is indeed the point. If you're so inclined, think of all the time and energy you can free up to do something that has nothing to do with the stock market. Maybe go show off your Tesla at EV events, and help others see what an EV can do for them
If you've got enough shares owned outright, then you just need to wait.
As an example, if you have 1000 shares, then a $5k share price is $5M some day. With a 4% withdrawal rate, thats a $200k/year income to live on in retirement. In any rational definition of well to do, that qualifies (using the worldwide population as the baseline). I know for certain that I'm not going to trade in and out and do better than that, and I really don't want to spend the time and energy on the off chance I'm wrong. I can do nothing; given that my overall investment thesis in Tesla is correct.
It's that latter point (about strategy, and execution against the strategy) that I'm looking for all the time.
One other thing worth adding - in 8 years of following the company pretty closely, where following the company is focused on strategy and execution, especially the last year or two, the company is constantly beating my expectations relative to the strategy. The strategy and progress against strategy have been fantastic (my opinion), and has kept my horizon at 10+ years, along with an expectation that I'll own the chunk of the company I own until I die.
I appreciate the feedback, and you describe the struggle I am going through quite well. I have become great at picking up pennies each week, but in the process I have cut off my own legs and left a lot of money on the table for much of increase from 230-500. While I made a decent 30% gain swing trading, that pales in comparison to what buy and hold would have netted me. I'll just keep listening and learning, and keep making money one way or the other.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
One approach that many have articulated (and I'm thinking of adopting for myself), is to establish a core position (presumably in shares). The idea is those are your long term buy and hold - don't touch 'em for nothing.
Outside of that you have a (small or big) pot of money / shares that you use to trade the swings in the stock.
One reason to do that - it's sort of a game you play with yourself where you make the 30% on the pot for swing trading, knowing that the core shares will be there for the big move. The purpose of the game - protect the core shares while giving a target to one's desire / inability to avoid trading the swings
Mostly, the short term trading sounds like a lot of energy and time I don't have, so that helps.
My guess is those are early preproduction cars that are not sellable. I bet they camouflaged a few of them so they could drive them around and test them without getting a bunch of flack for terrible paint or panel gaps.
It is sold out already!Sold out of men's M and L
Ordered one for my wife
If a 20 point drop from yesterday's ATH close is already causing some longs to question their strategy, can you image how shorts who are 200 to 300 points down are feeling?
Glad they didn't cover yesterday?
So you are saying if I want to add some more to my position, Friday would be the best day to do so this week?
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