Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

Oops.

Saudi Arabia fund dumped nearly all of its Tesla shares before the surge — CNBC

On that note I will happily tell the Saudis go to pound sand.

 

[Nocturnal]

Those crazy shorts still aren't covering? And more are going in? Yikes. Longs are playing with house money, being greedy on the short side seems really stupid right now.

Anyone care to explain the advantages of dumping 2.5 million shares 10 mins prior to closing vs dumping it after market? If it's manipulation, wouldn't dumping 2.5 million shares be more effective on stock price than when open?

Perhaps hoping to cause a panic. Doing that after market means that it is not possible for most to quickly sell.

 

[Sparky4life]

I have had my Model 3 console display the below URL while driving. It appears that rendering this page overloads the computer, so the driving part of the screen gets all messed up: Instead of displaying driving speed it would just display the 'D' for drive and then all the various check-icons (seat belt, air bags, various lights) would light up. Also, when in reverse the rear view camera view suddenly had a very low frame rate.

So it would seem that the setting of the (Linux) process priorities could be improved.

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Stock Price, Quote, History & News - Yahoo Finance

PS. SP pushing for ATH, 950

I’ve seen that to, and i suspect it’s caused by the process that is responsible for rendering the driving UI crashing and being restarted. The display of all the check icons is part of the initialization of that process (required by law so the driver can verify that the ‘lights’ are not burned out)

i also often drive around with this page displayed

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps hoping to cause a panic. Doing that after market means that it is not possible for most to quickly sell.

So then why wouldn't you dump earlier in the day? 10 mins doesn't give a lot of people time to react besides activating stop losses but also activating buy orders. But then again low volume after market would have a much bigger impact on sp even though there's a possibility of gapping up the next day correct?.

 

[Romand]

Ford's earning is going to help propel TSLA over $1000 tomorrow.

hope you are right

 

[Drumheller]

Yesterday, I made a comment that Saturday I put in a buy order around $657 that missed being filled Monday morning and I had to reset it to $700 so it filled at $698. I joked that I had more money coming in and would I need to set my next buy Monday night at $800 to fill Tuesday morning.

Well... I did. and it didn't fill. I had to reset it this morning and it filled at $886.

I'm quoting those numbers from memory. I think they are right, but I could be off ... $100.... because that's how fast things are moving.

Wow

 

[SMAlset]

NEW STREET CUTS TESLA TO NEUTRAL: New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Buy with an unchanged one-year price target of $800. The analyst said that over the next year, there is not likely going to be anything making him more confident in the stock, as all the potential catalysts are over a year out. Ferragu recommended buying the stock after the short squeeze is over, on a pullback.

well, Monsieur Ferragu, you might be right but you might be wrong...who knows

He said catalysts are a year out, but is the Semi going to be available this year?

And I think Battery Day will pump up interest.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Whoever did it tried to make it look like the VW short squeeze peak and rapid drop. Not going to work, me thinks.
Already recovering aftermarket, and I do believe that the longs here are much stronger than this.

Strong enough to be satisfied with a 100-pt daily gain, you mean? Yeah, I think we can handle that.

 

[Zaxxon]

Everyone's been so caught up in the stock price that no one noticed today's blog post:

Accelerating Tesla’s Safety Culture

 

[TSLA Pilot]

As a non Shareholder I am loving this crazyness.
For you long holders enjoy the hourly updates; though I would be tempted to sell 50% of shares that have been owned more than 12 months. Pocket some profit and think about buying back in (or grabbing some boring index funds) when it should dip to around 400-500 but who really knows.

AVOID INDEX FUNDS!

They, and many other mutual funds, invest in oil and gas companies because they're looking to make a buck, regardless of the cost to our planet and to future generations.

Individual stocks ONLY, preferably what some might call "the only ESG Pure Play: TSLA."

 

[traxila]

So your selling, while Baron is advising of future 4- and 5-figure valuations?

And your "Wealth Manager" (who has a job, and is likely not wealthy) has been pushing you to sell, so you sold?

Ah, okay then.

I'd posit that following Baron's commentary would have been far, far more prudent . . . time will tell.

Don't push back on the guy for taking profit. You should commend him on his thirty bagger.

Can't go broke taking profit. Can't eat stock.

 

[TradingInvest]

Thanks for the response, I understand and agree.
However, you say, 'People are buying Call options because we are going to join index.'
I have been following that discussion, but only to a degree, I'll have to look into it more. You put it as if it is a done deal... is that what you think, or more that it is a very strong probability?

Nothing is 100% certain in investment, even more so in the trading world. Everything I say is an educated guess. We should make rational decisions based on probability and expected return.

 

[Zaxxon]

Don't push back on the guy for taking profit. You should commend him on his thirty bagger.

Can't go broke taking profit. Can't eat stock.

This. We all hope (and many of us think) there's still a several-bagger from here, but everyone should look to their own financial situation. It can be an entirely rational decision to cut your moonshot possibilities in half in exchange for greatly improving <insert aspect of your life here>. There's no guarantees but death and taxes, etc etc.

 

[ZsoZso]

AVOID INDEX FUNDS!

They, and many other mutual funds, invest in oil and gas companies because they're looking to make a buck, regardless of the cost to our planet and to future generations.

Individual stocks ONLY, preferably what some might call "the only ESG Pure Play: TSLA."

SPYX:
SPYX

Launched in December 2015, SPYX follows a subset of the S&P 500 index, divesting itself of certain energy-related firms. Companies owning fossil fuel reserves—defined here as crude oil, natural gas and coal—are removed from the S&P 500, and the resulting market- cap weighted roster forms the S&P 500 Fossil Fuel Free Index.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla ‘casino’ lures back famed short seller

Poor saps. This is like some sad never-ending game of chicken.

 

[Nocturnal]

So then why wouldn't you dump earlier in the day? 10 mins doesn't give a lot of people time to react besides activating stop losses but also activating buy orders. But then again low volume after market would have a much bigger impact on sp even though there's a possibility of gapping up the next day correct?.

Maybe looking for a low volume point, or waiting until a friendly person at MarketWatch could put out a bearish headline?

 

[eloder]

I couldn't resist some profit taking today. But a $2000 options play in mid-January was enough to buy a decked-out performance Model 3. Sold one of the three options off 20 minutes before close (July with 800, 900, 1000 strikes).

I fully expect to regret this play tomorrow, but at least I have the other two options ready to play

I don't think my brain is capable of comprehending that $1.3k just paid off the remaining half of my car loan. Still trying to wrap my head around my long-term stock gains. Peanuts to many here I'm sure, but it doesn't feel real. I can't thank you all enough for the huge amount of information and wise insights provided here!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I have a friend, a few years ago we were chatting about work, personal interest... He doesn't have lots of knowledge about stocks, but he read a lot online. He said he was worried about economy, so he sold all his stocks, waiting for a recession to get in again. That was in the end of 2012. My interest happen to be in investment. So I explained to him why his move was wrong when the stock market was undervalued. I ended up helping him to pick a few stocks and set thing up correctly. Today his account passed 9 million. Almost 10 fold. No margin, no option, no frequent trading. Learning investment is not a trivial task, but it's worth it to learn early and get good at it. When you get a chance, help your kids to learn. It will make a big difference.

100% agree. My 19 year old daughter recently got interested in the stock account I had set up for her. So she entered all her gifted holdings into a stock tracker. Today she texted me this picture.

 

[Boomer19]

I outlined my hypothesis yesterday:

"Guys, TSLA float is 141.9 million shares, and today 46.3 million shares were traded, which is 32.6% of the float.

This is truly remarkable: I believe what is going on is that 3 forces are reducing the float:

• "Don't sell below $5,000" long term holders - they are effectively insiders who don't sell,
• S&P 500 indexing accumulators who'll need these shares in a few months and who won't sell them,
• Shorts covering - where short positions covered destroy a matching number of long shares.

32.6% of the float trading in a single day might be a signal of too few shares available in the float already ...

If true then the squeeze might become more VW-ish."​

I forgot to list a fourth, fifth and sixth factor:

• Options writers and market makers delta-hedging. There's an incredible amount of open interest on the call side, well over 50 million shares equivalent ...
• Some really bug funds with a short TSLA position or naked call options might be close to blowing out (is Jim Chanos's fund fine - did they never write naked call options?) - and Wall Street might be smelling the bl**d in the water. Why sell to them before it's clear who exactly those getting squeezed are? This would further reduce the float ...
• Retail investors who bought the dip last year between May and October are still a couple of months away to be able to lock in long term capital gains tax rates. Selling right now would mean giving up 37% of the investment position (!), so steep was the rise, and so high the gains which moved many retail investors into the highest U.S. tax bracket. This takes out from the float those investors who'd otherwise consider divesting a bit, to dip-buy at least 37% lower. But to sell now they'd have to be convinced that the dip will be significantly deeper than 40% ... which is a tall order right now.

If true then the "effective float" of TSLA might have become too small, and the buying comes from distressed shorts and S&P 500 exposed investment funds fighting over too few fish in the pond.

Also, both shorts covering and S&P 500 exposed funds buying their ~0.4% allocation will further decrease the float, which presses up the price as new buyers have to convince existing shareholders with higher and higher price targets to part with their shares...

So it's a vicious circle, a self-reinforcing cycle, and the narrowing of the float created the VW squeeze as well. (Although under very different circumstances.)

I have no idea whether my hypothesis is true, but the percentage of the official float traded, which must in reality be significantly smaller, is truly remarkable.

and another unprecedented day

 

[Nocturnal]

I couldn't resist some profit taking today. But a $2000 options play in mid-January was enough to buy a decked-out performance Model 3. Sold one of the three options off 20 minutes before close (July with 800, 900, 1000 strikes).

I fully expect to regret this play tomorrow, but at least I have the other two options ready to play

I don't think my brain is capable of comprehending that $1.3k just paid off the remaining half of my car loan. Still trying to wrap my head around my long-term stock gains. Peanuts to many here I'm sure, but it doesn't feel real. I can't thank you all enough for the huge amount of information and wise insights provided here!

This has been truly amazing. My 3k or so investment into my options account has turned into 140k in value, and it was as high as 155k early today. Of course I'm tempted to kick myself for not investing 30k instead of 3k but that road leads to madness.