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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ameliorate
Member
In perspective, 250M traded in 2 minutes caused share value to drop roughly 18B at the time, and so far plus whatever extra they spent today adds up to 47B market cap loss.
Seems fraudulent to me.
"Steve Eisman, the investor made famous by betting against subprime mortgages before the 2008 financial crash, said the recent run-up in Tesla Inc.’s stock is inexplicable and is instead bullish about General Motors Co."
Glamisduner
Active Member
I almost sold a few shares at $960 yesterday, but I was 5 seconds too late... Now it's at 710 and dropping, maybe I should still sell but I feel like an idiot.
edit: ok sold a few shares at $710 and now it's headed back up, you can all thank me for the increase in price since stocks always go up right after I sell them
Why is everyone disagreeing?
edit: ok sold a few shares at $710 and now it's headed back up, you can all thank me for the increase in price since stocks always go up right after I sell them
Why is everyone disagreeing?
Last edited:
Several factors played roles in Elon's decision to cancel going private. One major reason is they couldn't figure out a way so small retail investors can stay on. Elon talked about this. He said the accredited investor rule doesn't make sense. I think that's why SEC started working on it.
I guess before the final decision to cancel, they asked Ron to set up the investment vehicle. That didn't work out.
Public support is very helpful for Tesla and SpaceX. Having retail investors on board is great.
CNBC now rolling out Charley Grant. The SEC really needs to look into the statements that are being made by all of these guest (Nader's were especially egregious).
humbaba
sleeping until $7000
TL;DR -- you can't meaningful compare Cruise (or Waymo) to Tesla because their approaches are too different.
To my knowledge, GM's Cruise gives demo rides to journalists and others and has posted some cherry-picked "best of" video clips to give the impression that they have accomplished something other than spending R&D. To my (admittedly inexperienced) eye Cruise looks to me more like a money pit than anything else, and mostly an expense to GM. Because GM spent the money to buy Cruise and the money invested by others in Cruise is not what it appears on its face.[1]
For example, there's been press coverage of the amounts being invested by Honda and SoftBank, but what they often omit is that Cruise doesn't have much of the investment money. Rather, there is a commitment to invest a certain amount, but only after a milestone has been reached. And, although I am stale so there may be recent information I'm unaware of, Cruise was not meeting those milestones.
It is noteworthy that although Cruise has cameras they are focused on LIDAR. The advantage of using LIDAR is that it gives you an "almost working" demo pretty quickly. This can be used to get a buyout and pull in investment dollars, or at least promises of such. Unfortunately, much of the problem space cannot be solved with LIDAR and after that first impressive leap... nothing.
For example, in late 2018 Cruise was still claiming a 2019 rollout[2] that obviously has not happened. I don't collect citations and must rely on my meager search skills to find articles again. Another late 2018 article [3] talks about the missed milestones, but I've read articles more recently than that.
Here's the thing: Cruise and Waymo are, effectively, black boxes whose performance is predicated on LIDAR which is known to be insufficient (at least to those who follow autonomy). There is no option to solving vision and, if you solve it, then you don't need LIDAR. Tesla has already made point about this where the used six seconds of video to reconstruct a 3d scene with obviously high fidelity. Now Tesla is working on using this to retroactively construct the scene for "two to three orders of magnitude"[4] more efficient labeling which then feeds back into training the AI.
My point is that you can drive a Tesla now and its driver assistance not only has real value, but lets you see how well it does (and doesn't) work. You don't have that with Cruise or Waymo. You get demo reels and "almost there" experiences for journalists and others.
Some people insist that the first to autonomy will win. I disagree: I believe the "first to autonomy" prize will almost certainly be awarded to Waymo -- the outward signs point clearly to them getting a grant to open an autonomous ride service (e.g., one that is open to the public and they are allowed to charge for the rides) sometime this year.
But it will be one market and they will have to go through the same, slow slog to open another market. Why? Because they have to get all of the data for that market's roads and prove it for each case. And that is just the start of their problems.
No, the winner will be the first to have generalized autonomy, not autonomy for driving a subset of roads in a particular town. And that is clearly going to be Tesla.
1) Honda to invest $2.75 billion in GM's self-driving car unit is a reasonable example that just talks about the total dollar amounts without giving a hint as to it being parted out for milestones.
2) Honda Teaming Up With GM To Create A Dedicated Self-Driving Vehicle
3) GM's driverless car bet faces long road ahead
4) that was Elon in the third row interview
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I see ~$800-850 for the close Friday, perhaps $900 if any real short covering is done. All the noise in between.......meh.
The craziest part of all this is that short interest(shares, not just dollars) may well be GROWING this week. Madness. None of the positive trigger events have even happened yet!
I guess all you really need is volatility. We keep acting as if there's an up team and a down team, playing TSLA both ways is probably much more common than we think.
The craziest part of all this is that short interest(shares, not just dollars) may well be GROWING this week. Madness. None of the positive trigger events have even happened yet!
I guess all you really need is volatility. We keep acting as if there's an up team and a down team, playing TSLA both ways is probably much more common than we think.
And now CNBC is pumping Nader's nonsense. For days they ignored TSLA when it was rising. Now they can't stop talking about it and pumping the insane comments of a clueless dipstick.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
Apparently my LEAP purchase was a bit of a falling knife thing. Hands are bloody. Oh well. I'm sure they'll heal up by 2022 lol.
Wowza! I guess the House of Saud really doesn’t like people laughing at their, er, PIF.
Shorts you’re still gonna have to buy shares to replace those fake ones you sold. Sure there will be enough real ones to go around? Here, I’ll just continue to hold my shares while you think about it.
Shorts, are you so sure you can keep your ranks together to the point in your playbook where you get the Old Gray Lady (i.e. NYT) to lift her skirts for you again and Consumer Reports to slime themselves on your behalf again? No? Didn’t think so. Oh, what’s that? Weren’t intending to this time? Putzes. lolz
jhm
Well-Known Member
No matter how good your case for $1000/share is right now, it'll be a stronger case in 12 months.
In 12 months...
+ 500k+ deliveries
+ Full year FCF positive
+ Full year profitable
+ Substantial market share gain in China and world
+ Full ramp up of Model Y in Giga California
+ Full ramp up of Model 3 in Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Model Y line at Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Giga Berlin
+ Production start of Semi, maybe Cybertruck too
+ Battery tech advances
+ FSD tech advances
+ Initial development of GF5, Giga Texas perhaps
+ Scale up of Energy products
+++ MORE SURPRISES
+ What did I miss?
In 12 months we'll be able to look back and say, this is what Tesla in 2020, and $1000/share is well earned.
Now what's the justification for $1000/share today? That Tesla will accomplish these things this year.
$1000 in 2020, based on expectations
$1000 in 2021, based on results
In 12 months...
+ 500k+ deliveries
+ Full year FCF positive
+ Full year profitable
+ Substantial market share gain in China and world
+ Full ramp up of Model Y in Giga California
+ Full ramp up of Model 3 in Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Model Y line at Giga Shanghai
+ Build out of Giga Berlin
+ Production start of Semi, maybe Cybertruck too
+ Battery tech advances
+ FSD tech advances
+ Initial development of GF5, Giga Texas perhaps
+ Scale up of Energy products
+++ MORE SURPRISES
+ What did I miss?
In 12 months we'll be able to look back and say, this is what Tesla in 2020, and $1000/share is well earned.
Now what's the justification for $1000/share today? That Tesla will accomplish these things this year.
$1000 in 2020, based on expectations
$1000 in 2021, based on results
larmor
Active Member
May be CNBC or its sponsors are at the center of FUD for tesla. In the past two months they tried their hardest to keep Jim Cramer quiet, or change the topic when he wanted to discuss TSLA....
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