Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dare]

This implosion may lead to further desperation to the point Tesla gets targeted for more than walstreet financial warfare to slow the death spiral down. Already seeing analysts on tv talking about politicians/governments stepping in to save traditional industry "workers" from Tesla's rise.

It makes you wonder, where are those voices as Amazon has decimated brick and mortar businesses all over the United States? Were they too busy getting rich?

 

[Foghat]

I’ve worked as a solar inspector/electrical inspector for years. I’ve been employed in the electrical utility industry building and serving power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities for decades. I only mention this to emphasize my blue collar, nuts and bolts, boots on the ground view of the industry.

The bureaucracy that has metastasized the utility industry will be overwhelmed by the convergence of battery cost reductions married to solar power. This combination will capture large swaths of utility cash flows.

The utility industry is oblivious to the threat—incapable and unwilling to adapt—and despised by their customer base.

In the coming months I will retire from one the largest electrical utility in the world; my retirement hedged by ownership in Tesla.

Well stated. I followed closely what happened to Solarcity-Tesla in Nevada over solar and recognized then this is the behind the scenes big fight happening with the big players. I learned a lot about how Buffet and his circle and the Koch family are very aligned on this issue, so not a partisan issue. Outside all the smoke and mirrors people throw out about the Solarcity acquisition, I feel this was a major reason Elon brought Solarcity into Tesla, because big utility players were cutting down solar expansion across the country through their control over commissions and legislation over net metering, regulatory capture. Seems the strategy to take on these individuals is to make a surge in the solar direction when energy storage can scale, and not do it while cell starved by the auto side. Get the cars in peoples driveways, solar will then be on their mind, then expand capacity to enter storage at scale. With this surge in gigafactories coming and being built at accelerated speeds, the time is coming rapidly TeslaEnergy will handle those "market forces" head on and overcome another situation like what happened in Nevada a few years back.

 

[kalefranz]

On Gigafactory Texas, here's a decent wrap-up article written from San Antonio's perspective. Apparently San Antonio was widely considered to have ended up as the second choice, behind Nevada.

San Antonio's Tesla bid worth more than Nevada's, official says

This wrap-up article, from the Nevada perspective, is quite a bit longer but provides a lot of extra nuance and context.

Art of the Tesla deal: How NV won a gigafactory

Some takeaways:

• San Antonio's incentive package dollar value exceeded the $1.25 billion offered by Nevada. "More than 80 percent of Nevada's incentives ... are tax abatements stretched over 10- and 20-year periods." San Antonio's "package was more weighted to early offsetting costs for the company." "In San Antonio, officials wrangled together a deal that would have included a 1,000-acre site with rail service, workforce development and training programs, discounted electricity rates, property tax abatements and cash grants. Much of that would offset Tesla's cost of constructing its plant in the first two years."
• As a finalist in the selection process, Nevada rushed ahead and broke ground on the potential site before the final selection was made. "For Nevada's economic development team, being the first site to break ground was a big deal for a couple of reasons. No. 1 was the fact that the state made it to the final round of selection. The second reason was it showed just how fast the state was in getting things done." Apparently after Nevada broke ground, Tesla hinted that the other finalists might want to take the same approach. "Tesla suggested late in the bidding process that local officials consider - even without a guarantee of the company's final decision - starting construction and absorbing the cost of the initial building for the gigafactory. Officials in San Antonio balked."

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’ve worked as a solar inspector/electrical inspector for years. I’ve been employed in the electrical utility industry building and serving power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities for decades. I only mention this to emphasize my blue collar, nuts and bolts, boots on the ground view of the industry.

The bureaucracy that has metastasized the utility industry will be overwhelmed by the convergence of battery cost reductions married to solar power. This combination will capture large swaths of utility cash flows.

The utility industry is oblivious to the threat—incapable and unwilling to adapt—and despised by their customer base.

In the coming months I will retire from one the largest electrical utility in the world; my retirement hedged by ownership in Tesla.

I’m in the utility world right now, as well. It’s fat and happy and lazy and, yes, ripe for the taking....and it’s about time.

 

[TradingInvest]

It is interesting Ark Invest doesn't mention solar and energy in their interviews. I wonder what they would forecast for when home storage and solar are pared across millions of homes. It is similar to the Robotaxi network, but seemingly far more revenue in the end when you understand demand response and aggregated services from the network. Solarcity already had aggregated services in their contracts years ago, so Tesla is very deep into developing this. They have pilot programs that have been going on for years. If there ever was an area most analysts covering Tesla don't have a clue on, it is the energy component or utility industry component.

Once Tesla is commonplace in the home, it could be a problem for many other such as Apple, Google, etc that want to dominate in the connected home. Tesla not coming through the speakers or the thermostat like those guys, but through your utility, your kWh. The kWh, then your internet service, your internet service then your operating system, your operating system and all your smart devices, and the rest is history. Tesla energy services market transactions (reminiscent to X.com business arena) could become a currency unto itself. That currency could be traded globally for Tesla run energy services, for Robotaxi services, for Tesla Semi operations... it is a massive transformation in economic activity as we know it.

It started with seeds, then gold, then oil... now Tesla kwhs?

Ark was right about convergence, but its not just around transport around which this convergence is happening, making this a whole new play ground few thought possible.

When I estimate Tesla's long term, I only focus on vehicle production/selling business. Then double that number to factor in the rest (Tesla Energy, Tesla Insurance, Tesla Services, Tesla Financial, etc.).

Then add FSD and Tesla Network, I value this part independently, then times a factor based on the current development and competitive landscape, such as X0.2.

 

[S3XY]

Meh. It’s super easy to handle when;

A) you don’t give your power away to people - ie. care what people think
B) you are being true to yourself - ie. listen to your gut and stand by your convictions
C) have a healthy relationship with money - ie. give it the respect and importance it deserves but not an ounce more

The situation is about you not them. Work on you and then what they do or say will have no affect on you.

So ends your therapy session for the day.

So now we know that FactChecking is Elon and Krugerrand is Dr Phil. At least that explains how he can own an island.

 

[Nocturnal]

I know, right? On paper I'm down something like $300-$350k since yesterday's peak and my reaction is just... "meh" Deleverage on the way up, leverage on the way down. It's not like I wasn't taking profit out as shares and a bit of diversification during that high period - I took out something like $120-140k or so yesterday via rolling spreads. It's just been crazy during the rise... I'd roll, and the new spreads would regain the value I took out in just a couple days.

I'm not down quite that much, but not dissimilar. I have been asking myself why I'm so calm and I think it's because this simply validates my investment thesis. If it's possible for Tesla to hit 950 now, then it's very possible for it to hit 1k by the end of the year as I've been guessing.

It was fun to be an almost millionaire (mostly thanks to Tesla) for an hour there, but I know I'll get there again. In fact, thanks to this run with options, I now have 120 or so more shares than I had this time around.

I’m in the utility world right now, as well. It’s fat and happy and lazy and, yes, ripe for the taking....and it’s about time.

I've been in Utility consulting on the software side most of my career. I can confirm. Even the publicly traded larger utilities operate like a government agency.

In the coming months I will retire from one the largest electrical utility in the world; my retirement hedged by ownership in Tesla.

Hmm, I wonder which one. I worked on a project at the largest electrical utility in the US for a while. Happened to be in CA as well. ​

​

 

[Opus BC fan]

I am looking forward to this TSLA ride continuing. This week has been amazing! There are many more amazing days to come.
The daily battles may go either way but the war has been won (against all of the early odds).
I am proud to be here with you all as a long term investor.

 

[StealthP3D]

The utility industry is oblivious to the threat—incapable and unwilling to adapt—and despised by their customer base.

In the coming months I will retire from one the largest electrical utility in the world; my retirement hedged by ownership in Tesla.

Congrats - don't do anything rash before you retire!

Oh, if it's the utility I think it is, the one that starts with "P", has a "G" somewhere in the middle, and ends with "E" then I can assure you it's not only despised by their customer base. I despise them and I've never even been a customer!

 

[Ocelot]

It started with seeds, then gold, then oil... now Tesla kwhs?

Is the fog, mercury vapour swirling around that hat? Just kidding. While mad it was a seriously deep and thought provoking post.

 

[TradingInvest]

I know, right? On paper I'm down something like $300-$350k since yesterday's peak and my reaction is just... "meh" Deleverage on the way up, leverage on the way down. It's not like I wasn't taking profit out as shares and a bit of diversification during that high period - I took out something like $120-140k or so yesterday via rolling spreads. It's just been crazy during the rise... I'd roll, and the new spreads would regain the value I took out in just a couple days.

That's great to hear. I did the same yesterday, removed leveraged positions, Calls were either closed or covered. feel so calm about the pullback. I was able to add more shares today, wouldn't mind if they keep pushing lower.

We might get a cup-and-handle base then another all time high; or a sharp V-shaped drop and rally; or just keep going up; or a drop for extended period. I'm ready for all the cases.

 

[Foghat]

When I estimate Tesla's long term, I only focus on vehicle production/selling business. Then double that number to factor in the rest (Tesla Energy, Tesla Insurance, Tesla Services, Tesla Financial, etc.).

Then add FSD and Tesla Network, I value this part independently, then times a factor based on the current development and competitive landscape, such as X0.2.

What would be an interesting addition would to explore the impact of TeslaEnergy on the Utility business. As cars and most everything else shift to the grid for "fuel", kWh consumption will rise dramatically globally. How much of the $/kwh will TeslaEnergy potentially take domestically and globally? Over what time horizon could they start taking that share? Have you seen how in Tanzania, solar customers pay to turn on their solar through their phone using a text and pay Mpesa/digital currencies? Have you explored the potential of Tesla aggregating energy storage across multiple neighborhoods or commercial sites to provide utilities with peaker plant services (initially)?

The impact of your analysts talking about this disruption in the stagnant but highly lucrative power utility business on TV (in addition to AI/robotaxi) may give those networks something more to spin on in how to value Tesla at the best case scenarios you outline.

 

[Causalien]

Do Americans not have tax free savings accounts?

Careful with that thing. You are guaranteed an audit if asset in TFSA surpasses 500k.

And what CRA considers speculative behaviour is often very broad.

 

[traxila]

Well, you wanted to trade didn’t you? Helluva a lot easier when it yin yangs up and down instead of just moonshotting and making everyone who doesn’t hold with vise like grip look like an idiot.

For the record, had lined up some sells of my long terms today on the way to 1000 figured that was a number that had to be approached. Was confident I could buy back at a discount for sure. But I was wrong. The volume was speaking to us yesterday but not everyone was paying attention. I kind of was, but damn I have a day job.

Lost more money in one day then I have in my entire life, high six figures that almost everyone in the world would consider a fortune. Except for all the Teslannaires on this board of course. Didn’t even faze me. Helps that I made more in the past two days lol. Guess that means I have made it. Either that or I got one foot in the grave. Maybe they go together...

Had short term calls overnight hoping for yet another leg of squeeze, course they got murdered but am proud that I turned a small profit today in my short term account by buying and furiously selling the dips. Little things in life matter...

Come on, this is great got no complaints at all. Now let’s get these damn BEVs on the road am sick and tired of the fumes. They will be the death of us all....

PS can’t believe I used to admire that hack Nader. The fud and nonsense he has spouted that past few days... I can only forgive him by deciding that he is old, dried up and useless, pining for his moment in the Sun again. So Ralphie boy, take it from me, you are old, dried up and useless. So sorry your ego needs stroking at this stage in your life. I would suggest you look into stoicism, but, of course, it appears to be way too late for this now.

 

[traxila]

Careful with that thing. You are guaranteed an audit if asset in TFSA surpasses 500k.

And what CRA considers speculative behaviour is often very broad.

Wait, you are saying if your IRA or equivalent passes 500k you are guaranteed an audit? How does that work?

What is there to audit anyway? Is this a Canadian thing?

 

[Curt Renz]

Bloomberg Technology - this evening:

 

[Jack6591]

Congrats - don't do anything rash before you retire!

Oh, if it's the utility I think it is, the one that starts with "P", has a "G" somewhere in the middle, and ends with "E" then I can assure you it's not only despised by their customer base. I despise them and I've never even been a customer!

I have always believed it lacked honor to speak ill of one’s employer. That said, I possess a greater sense of duty to the environment and to customers than I do to my company. However, since I work for a municipally owned utility—my loyalty is with the ratepayers—they own the company. People have a fundamental right to independent clean energy.

In the coming months I will speak out in a loud, clear, and direct voice.

 

[Causalien]

Wait, you are saying if your IRA or equivalent passes 500k you are guaranteed an audit? How does that work?

What is there to audit anyway? Is this a Canadian thing?

Just rumours from other tfsa holders with >500k assets. Our government hate rich ppl.

TFSA is a canadian thing.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Now you people have me watching this stupid ass Witcher show. I gotta take a break from this place.

 

[SteveG3]

I’ve worked as a solar inspector/electrical inspector for years. I’ve been employed in the electrical utility industry building and serving power generation, transmission, and distribution facilities for decades. I only mention this to emphasize my blue collar, nuts and bolts, boots on the ground view of the industry.

The bureaucracy that has metastasized the utility industry will be overwhelmed by the convergence of battery cost reductions married to solar power. This combination will capture large swaths of utility cash flows.

The utility industry is oblivious to the threat—incapable and unwilling to adapt—and despised by their customer base.

In the coming months I will retire from one the largest electrical utility in the world; my retirement hedged by ownership in Tesla.

I’ve long wondered about the role of those in decision making positions at giant utilities has had and will have on the switch to renewable/battery.

To what extent the personal likes/dislikes, comfort with what they’ve known for decades, and decades of relationships with those who supply the fossil fuel infrastructure to utilities impacts openness to what Tesla’s got to offer. I would not be at all surprised if a more reliable and economically efficient energy source often takes a back seat to those personal preferences above.

Jack, that’s all speculation on my part, so, I’m wondering if you have some first hand insight on this possibility to contribute here.