Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LJS22]

Austin has a great night life. Lots of people go there for bachelor and bachelorette parties. I visit last year and had a blast. They have lots of bars and clubs on this cool historical street that they close off to cars for the night. Every weekend it’s packed with people partying. Especially after a Long Horn game. The food is amazing especially if you get the southern bbq. San Antonio is only about an hour away and it’s a very historical city with a cook river walk. I’m pretty sure Austin is Elon’s type of city.

Texas represents huge potential for Tesla. There’s a big potential customer base, better tax situation for companies, it will be the state that you see the switch in energy sources, lots of land, and some of the easier roads to prepare FSD for. Texas drivers switch cars more often than they do tv’s, many have their own home with a garage, and electricity is cheap.

Big area to conquer for Musk but it will pay off

 

[jerry33]

Why not just do a software update and have the car verbally state the following "Autopilot is engaged. Please remember that this is not a fully autonomous system and you are responsible for maintaining control of the vehicle".

A long time ago, one of my bosses had a car like that. They replaced the dings with a voice (you could choose male or female). The key is in the ignition...The key is in the ignition...The key is in the ignition (and other phrases). A few drives and he, and everyone who rode in the car, was just about ready to total the car to get rid of the annoying voice.

 

[generalenthu]

Love the afternoon action today. Looks like there was plenty of opportunity and volume for all the option driven hedge need to be digested and neutralized. Volume was a relatively healthy 17.2 million against a hedge need of ~4 million.

I continue to believe this is the biggest driver until the volumes and IVs come down to more normal levels.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Apparently, >8600 tests for Coronavirus were done in Italy, finding 322 positives.
UK >6500 tests, 13 positives.
France <500 tests, 12 positives.
(source:SkyTg24)

/methinks we'll have some coronavirus blast in France soon... :S

 

[elasalle]

Big picture (Market was Corona to test 3044.57 - 200MA)

 

[jhm]

Volkswagen plans to hire an ‘aggressive’ internal climate activist - Electrek
VW need internal lobbying - I wonder what the propaganda budget will be (Greta could do it for free)? If you can't get your employees to buy-in, what chance do you have with the customers?

Maybe this guy is available.

 

[jhm]

One of the best lines;
"When a task cannot be partitioned because of sequential constraints, the application of more effort has no effect on the schedule (Fig. 2.2). The bearing of a child takes nine months, no matter how many women are assigned. Many software tasks have this characteristic because of the sequential nature of debugging"

Sure, but in the begetting of children, there are ways to speed things up.

 

[qphan79]

Just wanted to pass along that I received a text today from the Tesla Newport Beach team. They were touting the “amazing updates” to the Model S, and they specifically mentioned the new 390 mile range. Take what you want from that.

Received another text from the same number today. This time I responded and got some interesting information!

I let the sales advisors know that I had a Model Y RWD in order. He responded that it won’t be produced until next year. When I asked about AWD being available sooner, he said deliveries start next month but that they have a “significant backlog”.

I then asked about current inventory and he said they have some “great long range S and X’s” available. Pretty interesting since many assumed this quarter was “sold out” since we were seeing estimates of 5-7 weeks for all modes not too long ago. Anyway, I responded that I would reconsider if TSLA goes on another huge run!

 

[azaz]

there are plenty of S+X in inventory in my zip code's 200 mile range, but consistently 0-4 Model 3s. Was 3 model 3s yesterday or the day before, down to zero today.

 

[BornToFly]

Beware catching falling knives, especially with options/LEAPS. The big dogs make money when the market goes up and down. The market was recently at ATH. They love an excuse to drive the market down 20-50% and then make a killing after all the pigs have sold. Coronavirus is their excuse. If it is big on the Nightly news, we need to be careful, regardless of how big a threat it really is compared to the Flu. If a few hundred cases in Italy can do this much damage to our portfolios, just wait until we have thousands of cases in every country, including the US. TSLA at 500 in a month is not out of the question. Of course Model Y news could stop the fall, but I'm not counting on it. I'm waiting for a clear bottom and a slight recovery before I consider buying shares or options. Not advice, as a certain pilot stole my crystal ball, and then broke it.....

P.S. - I just saw that they are considering cancelling the summer Olympics now....

 

[generalenthu]

...but if you need 9 babies, that one woman will take a while......

Not if you're Elon F Musk. 5 babies between 2004 and 2006

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Tue, Feb 25, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

VWAP: $810.69
Volume: 17,307,826
Traded: $14,031,343,563.43 ($14.03 B)

Closing SP / VWAP: 98.65%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)​

Comment: "Morning macro slump greased the slide into the waiting arms of $800"

 

[Sudre]

This is this thing though,and this brings this back to the stock price. When this person's family sue, and they will. How liable is Tesla? And does the liability make AP worth it tp the company?

This is why the other automakers are dragging their feet on this, the liability.

It is the US and anyone can sue over anything but..... What is their legal argument? The NTSB clearly stated and found that drivers know the limitations of Autopilot. Is their legal argument going to be, "Yes he knew the vehicle had a flaw and veered towards to gore point multiple times but that day video games were more important than his life?" I mean I am sitting here as a juror and trying to understand why someone is driving a car with their hands off the wheel knowing full well their hands should be on the wheel. As a juror I am trying to wrap my head around a California law making cell phone use by the driver illegal but yet this guy was playing a game on his phone. This really doesn't work out well but as they say, juries can do strange things sometimes. Maybe they use the family sympathy play and go for the pity reward for the kids? Rich evil company?

 

[FrankSG]

It's fine for Tesla to go the Apple route for it's own consumer products. But my hunch is that most OEMs are looking for a Microsoft operating solution that can allow them to focus more on the hardware side. Especially, when an OEM is threatened with existential risk if they can't pull together a robust software solution in time, they can be motivated to spend quite alot on a vendor that can actually solve their problems.

Who's going to want to make an operating system for an industry that's dying though? Doesn't seem like a good idea to build operating systems for traditional auto, which is going to face enormous financial difficulties over the coming years, and whose existence is being threatened by Tesla.

 

[FrankSG]

Is it me or has $TSLA found a happy place around $800, while the NASDAQ is still falling?

I hate to be a party pooper, but I think TSLA is most likely being kept at $800 by market makers who are short nearly 10,000 $800 PUT option contracts expiring this week.

 

[Thekiwi]

So guys, where's the MSM news regarding notifications to Model Y reservation owners that they can take delivery as early as March 15th?

What? They're not going to report on it? Why?

It was already announced back at earnings that Model Y would be shipping in Q1, so it shouldn't be market moving news that model Y is starting deliveries in the last 2 weeks of March.

 

[Sudre]

Regarding autopilot safety and this NTSB meeting today, I have an idea.

Why not just do a software update and have the car verbally state the following "Autopilot is engaged. Please remember that this is not a fully autonomous system and you are responsible for maintaining control of the vehicle."

That way, the driver really has no excuse unless maybe they are deaf.

This will be a way for Tesla to show that they are acting in good faith with safety recommendations.

The software update will remind people of the value of Tesla's OTA updates.

And I think it is kind of cool having the car talk to you, like KITT from Knight Rider.

They can go one step further too!
"Are you sure you understand to keep your hands on the wheel? Please tap screen to verify."
"Are you really sure you understand you can not play video games? Please tap screen to verify."
"Have you read the limitations of autopilot? Please tap screen to verify."
"Do you understand you should be aware of your surrounding? Please tap screen to verify."
"Do you know Autopilot is not self driving software and must be monitored? Please tap screen to verify."
.......
three hours later......
"Ok, you may enter your destination."
"Do you understand your destination includes areas not cleared for autopilot use? Please tap screen to verify."
"Do you understand there was a heavy rain and flooding and you should not drive on flooded roads? Please tap screen to verify."
.....
3 hours later....

Crap my coffee is cold. Guess I'll go inside and get a fresh cup.

sitting back down in car.

""Are you sure you understand to keep your hands on the wheel?........"

NO!!!!!

 

[FrankSG]

I don't think Tesla plans to scale production linearly, I believe Elon is thinking exponentially: in 2019 Tesla had 1 GF underconstruction, taking about a year to 1st production. Then:

• In 2020/21, Tesla will build 3 GFs (for a total of 5)
  • GF3/Shanghai Ph2 (Model Y)
    
  • GF4/Berlin Ph1 (Model Y)
    
  • GF5/Texas (Cyberfactory)
• In 2021/22, I expect 2 more GFs (for a total of 7)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph2 (Model 3)
    
  • 1 in China (1st World Car a.k.a. "Model 1")
• In 2022/23, I expect 3 more GFs (for a total of 10)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph3 (Model 2)
  • 2 more in China (incl'd GF6 site?)
• In 2023/24, I expect 4 more GFs (for a total of 14)
  • GF4/Berlin Ph4 (EuroSemi?)
  • 3 in China (1 each at 3 Chinese GF sites?)
• In 2024/25, working cash flow allows up to 7 more GFs to bring the total over 20 (placed as needed; capacity reaches 10-20M veh/year). Sites could include Brazil, India, Japan as desired
• Note: TE owns W.Australia by 2030; pays in Cash

The key is exponential growth in working capital to fund these new projects from the previous round of production expansions. My simple rule of thumb is that every 2 operating GFs funds the annual construction of 1 more.

Look out SP, come 2026. Once Tesla is no longer pouring all its working capital into growth, some of that excess can go in share buybacks. This is why my personal investment horizon goes out to at least 2027. Might sell a few, but will reevaluate then. Autonomy is a real wild card, one which should be coming into focus by then.

The Shortzes better pray they've ducked'n'covered by that day. Personally, I hope they stick it around for their bitter end. Hey, I don't even subscribe to Comedy Central anymore; why would you when there's CNBC...

Cheers!

I love this post, but one thing is missing: Giga India. There's no way Tesla is not going to expand to India in the next 5 years, unless the government is really prohibitive.

If Giga 5 is Texas for batteries and/or Cyber, and if Giga 6 is going to be a second factory in China, I'd be really surprised if neither GIga 7 nor 8 were to be located in India.

 

[HG Wells]

Not if you're Elon F Musk. 5 babies between 2004 and 2006

Does this mean I have to lecture ELON about contraceptives ?

 

[madodel]

Volkswagen plans to hire an ‘aggressive’ internal climate activist - Electrek
VW need internal lobbying - I wonder what the propaganda budget will be (Greta could do it for free)? If you can't get your employees to buy-in, what chance do you have with the customers?

Will their compensation package include a free TDI?