The Fed will not be able to get people to leave homes if cases start to popup all over the country. People will just hunker down. If kids need to stay home from schools and parents dont get paid time off/paid sick time the Fed wont be able to help much.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The Fed will not be able to get people to leave homes if cases start to popup all over the country. People will just hunker down. If kids need to stay home from schools and parents dont get paid time off/paid sick time the Fed wont be able to help much.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
True, but if the infections are simply slowed down enough, then the impact won't be nearly as severe, because the impact is staggered. Playing for time also helps because the virus will get weaker as it spreads.
China got shut down because the outbreak got out of control in a 5 million residents large city and a large province. The outbreaks in other places all seem to have a much smaller scale.
The Fed lowering interest rates could stimulate economic activity everywhere else, which counterbalances the negative effects to a certain degree.
Those who don't get paid sick time will just go to work and infect the other workers. Even if you have paid sick days, fear of RIF will keep many on the job. I wouldn't want to be the executive who instituted the no paid sick leave policy or the environment where folks feel they need to come in or be RIFfed.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Lol at the moment in the Musk introduction where Elon looks somewhat confused: “you may remember him from dial up modems”
2020 Air Warfare Symposium Day 2 - Fireside Chat: Elon Musk
Yes but they can keep people from defaulting on mortgages and debt as a result of not working.
So, the vast majority of companies then?
Years of working in consulting has shown me that most middle and upper managers are incredibly short sighted.
This was spotted at the factory in Fremont just recently. It's happening!
how so? Are they giving these people loans? Or forcing banks not to call in overdue mortgages? (Just reducing interest rates a little and/or buying stocks isn’t going to help those people).
I don't know the how, but that will be the goal. Otherwise it's all for naught. The average American literally can't skip work for a week and still make rent. So people staying home from work, schools closed etc. If that happens they will probably start cutting checks to US citizens.
I don't necessarily expect to my newly bought 1200$ and 1300$ calls to go ITM, instead I expect to sell well before expiry.
I am merely betting that from TSLA's deeply depressed SP of today we will go (at least) a lot closer to ATH during spring or early summer, which should provide me with ample opportunity to sell with a healthy gain.
So I chose these calls because they run for 6-8 months and because they provide a lot of leverage - which I felt I needed today, because I had little cash available and still wanted to get something out of the day.
For Tesla to qualify for S&P 500 inclusion with 2020Q2, they just need that quarter to be GAAP profitable, and for this quarter to lose at most 248M$. Yes, with just a couple million dollars of Q2 profits, Tesla can afford to lose 1/4 billion dollars in Q1 and still qualify for S&P 500 inclusion.
So although my Aug. call option will have lost a lot of time value when Q2 P&D report comes out, it could work out OK - and even more so for the October one.
At least I got these options with a healthy discount today and will look forward to following the SP in the coming weeks.
Maybe the Fed can convert $100 bills into N95 masks to alleviate the problem.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
We bought a box of like 25 N95 masks last year (had to spend a week moving a relative out of a very moldy house) and we still have a ton of them and now we’re thinking, hmm, should we sell ‘em for a bunch of TSLA shares, or hold on to them for the zombie hordes... tough choice? Nah!
The real headlines will be the comparisons between the Model 3 launch and the Y launch.
Reminder:
Model 3 launched with 30 vehicles, Y?
After a long time, experts managed to put their hands on Model 3-s, and they found the body manufacturing is bad, the quality of the car is really bad. Talking heads explained that Tesla should outsource manufacturing to legacy guys because they have no clue how to do mass manufacturing. Model Y?
We can guess at this point some answers about Model Y but I suspect that the conclusion will be that Tesla in less than 3 years has become from worse the best manufacturer.
How Tesla Sets Itself Apart
The simple points made here about car buying process, evolving purchase, battery advantage, Green advantage would be enough to invest in Tesla over almost anything else right now. It’s a clear cut advantage
The simple points made here about car buying process, evolving purchase, battery advantage, Green advantage would be enough to invest in Tesla over almost anything else right now. It’s a clear cut advantage
I'm interested in some speculation on Mass Landing and Hornsdale, cell sourcing pricing etc..
(Feel free to correct anything)
For starters just assuming Moss Landing is using 1 GWh of cells how many Model 3/Y would that volume of cells build and how much profit would Tesla make on the cars?
My rough guess 15,000 cars profit $150M.
Next question where are Megapacks to be made? My guesses in order Nevada or Buffalo
What would be the cost and profit margin on 1 GWh worth of Megapacks..
(My wild guesses sort of deduced from Hornsdale)
High: Revenue $600M Profit $120M, Low: Revenue $300M Profit $60M,
My hunch is closer to the low side, which means Battery Investor Day will reveal that energy storage cells will come from a different supply than automotive, no big surprise...
It may or may not also reveal where Megapacks will be made...
So in summary I don't think Tesla will be forgoing around $150M of profit on 15,000 Model 3/Ys, they will find a way to do both..
A new case in Santa Clara...hopefully this doesnt spread into Fremont
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Daily Short Selling Report is out from FINRA. It was another day of high volume naked short selling with the 'Uptick Rule' curcuit breakers supposedly protecting Investors:
I'm not saying that the Bears won't continue their raids; I'm saying that they've dulled their claws. And thats a good thing for TSLA.
Cheers!
- 5.80% naked short vs today's non-exempt Short Vol
- 137th Percentile rank naked shorting vs Feb 2020 data
I'm not saying that the Bears won't continue their raids; I'm saying that they've dulled their claws. And thats a good thing for TSLA.
Cheers!
Some smart economists say that monetary easing will not do much when the problem is not monetary. On the other hand, the FED will be out of ammunition when the problem might become monetary.
Nouriel Roubini on Twitter
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