Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

Would you encourage everyone to post their individual transaction on this thread?

Wow.
ya know?
I see so much of the posting of the deals so many regulars post on the board, and I would follow one of them even though I know, I know, they are NOT giving financial advice.
But the thing is I ain't smart enough to even know what they are talking about 90% of the time. I got the understanding that the best "non-advice" is to hodl.
But I always imagined buying some options with the 10% "goofy money" I got in my IRA...which is just a few thou.
I'd really like for the members of the board that know the other members and know how to play this long and short and calls and puts, and whatever else it is to identify the top 3-6 guys so that when they write something I would have a better chance of learnign the truth as to how it actually works concerning TSLA.
Another thing I'd like to see is a forecasting for dollars event where ONLY the top (By Votes) get to play a game of Stock market. In Real Time.
It'd be very educational to watch them "play."
Now that I think about it though, am I being naive and crase in thinking that the TSLA experts on here are winning in this game. And would actually share what they "would do" in real time.
?

 

[EVNow]

In the long-term, big picture it will be no more than the merest little blip. A big nothing-burger.

Sure - just like the visit to $176 last year.

 

[lafrisbee]

Uber open to using self-driving tech from competition: CEO

Yeah, I'll bet you are!

HEY NOW! I see many of you marking this as "funny." It actually is a very good indicator of acceptance of FSD by competitors... whether Elon sees it as a good thing for the planet or the company I do not know.

 

[StealthP3D]

Serious question: Do you consider “paper gains” not gains also?

Of course. They are unrealized gains. They are typically better than realized gains.

 

[StealthP3D]

Sure - just like the visit to $176 last year.

That wasn't caused by a virus.

Don't mix up your apples and oranges.

 

[Garlands]

Normally I'm not a superbull. I couldn't pull the trigger on TSLA until almost 9 years after I started following it (at the IPO). The puzzle pieces didn't "line up" right for me. I look at the risk to reward ratio and call it how I see it. That's why my cost basis is in the low-mid $200's. Yeah, I wished I had bought at the IPO but it didn't fit my risk/likely reward profile at the time.

It might make you feel better to know I haven't been this bullish on any of my stocks since 1998 when I was blown away by the potential I saw in Qualcomm. Yes, over 20 years ago. Don't get me wrong, I've had plenty of great profits since then but I was not a "superbull" on any of them. Fortunately, Qualcomm didn't really take off until more than a year after I turned "superbull" and it had declined by 30%. That gave me time to load up on the dips. I even sold a house and put 90% of the proceeds into Qualcomm (on top of my already large position). When the fuse was finally lit it ended up returning over 3600% in a little over a year. The chart doesn't even tell the whole story because there was the Leap Wireless spin-off which was sold for a tidy profit on top of the insane share price appreciation. I'm less bullish on TSLA in the 1-2 year timeframe vs. 1998 QCOM (it might double) and more bullish on TSLA for the long game, stationary storage, battery manufacturing, autonomy, etc. It has good potential to turn into a financial steamroller. But I could change my mind at any moment.

I'm a strange mix of very cautious investor and a "break all the conservative rules" investor. I don't go in big unless all the puzzle pieces line up right. I've turned down more excellent investments than you can count on your fingers and toes. But on the other hand, I rarely lose much money. I have very few minor disasters under my belt considering how many times I've jumped in big. I like to scoop up the money in big piles when the gettin' is good, when I see the opportunity to do it with great odds on my side. And riding the long "slow" appreciation of solid stocks like MSFT and SBUX, often for 5-10 years at a time. Scalping a few bucks here and there before slinking off in the shadow is not my style. If it's not going to move the needle, I'm not interested.

All that said, let's take a look TSLA share price history after the election, assuming a bear market isn't happening. BTW, elections are weak market medicines (bad or good). Look at Obama's first four years vs. Trumps first four years. Or Obama's second four years vs. Trump's first four years. Although polar opposites, the markets responded very similarly through it all.

How did you know when to sell QCOM?

 

[MC3OZ]

Back to EVs other car makers stepping up EV plans is a good thing...
I think we are trending towards EVs being > 95% of car demand worldwide in around 10 years.... so 80 Million cars..
It is easy to see Tesla possible selling 20 Million cars in that environment especially as there will be a short term demand spike that may get up to 120 Million per year..
I also think we are heading for a short term demand squeeze 2022-2023 when EVs may be up to 25% of new car demand, or 20 Million units per year..
In spite of anything any car maker does between now and say 2023 it is unlikely 20 Million EVs will be available in 2023.
So I think buyers will respond as follows, 50% of buyers will simply keep their old EVs going,.the other 50% will purchase an ICE but likely a low end model or 2nd hand....
So in 2023 if there are insufficient EVs available for purchase, perhaps up to 10 Million buyers will not buy an new car,,,
Obviously this is a "gold rush" supply and demand situation similar to toilet paper, and we know Tesla is working on rapidly scaling battery production, with a mature vehicle platform at exactly the right time..

 

[Dr. J]

car demand worldwide in around 10 years.... so 80 Million cars..
It is easy to see Tesla possible selling 20 Million cars in that environment

Sure, they can sell 'em, but can they make 'em?

 

[KarenRei]

I may have missed it Karen, but do you have yours yet?

Edit: not sarcastic, just curious...

Got a VIN about 2 weeks ago.
VIN shows up as registered in our transport department's license plate lookup as of... Monday I think?
Waiting on the call to set up a delivery date.

A coworker got his on the first day. He mentioned that there were a lot of minor hiccups in the delivery process, which is unsurprising for the first day. He mentioned that the car's great, though he does have one bug where occasionally the window will roll down on its own. I suggested he make a service appointment, but he wants to see if they can remote diagnose it, so he's waiting for it to happen again so he can record the time. Fit and finish he seemed quite happy with; his only complaint was (after inspecting everything closely) he found one place that was a couple millimeters off flush.

Whenever I check out the delivery centre, I often look at the cars outside up close. Quality IMHO looks great. I've seen again a couple places where there might be something a millimeter or two out of alignment, but it boggles the mind that anyone would nitpick something like that (esp. since it can be adjusted). The paint is what I'm most impressed with; I haven't seen a single flaw. And when I say "flaw" I don't just mean paint chips or stuff like that; I hold up a flashlight from the side to look for any imperfections (swirl marks, etc) in the clear coat. Nothing - just perfection. And the more I look at the paint close up, the more I love it; they have such lovely paint!

 

[lafrisbee]

Back to EVs other car makers stepping up EV plans is a good thing...
I think we are trending towards EVs being > 95% of car demand worldwide in around 10 years.... so 80 Million cars..
It is easy to see Tesla possible selling 20 Million cars in that environment especially as there will be a short term demand spike that may get up to 120 Million per year..
I also think we are heading for a short term demand squeeze 2022-2023 when EVs may be up to 25% of new car demand, or 20 Million units per year..
In spite of anything any car maker does between now and say 2023 it is unlikely 20 Million EVs will be available in 2023.
So I think buyers will respond as follows, 50% of buyers will simply keep their old EVs going,.the other 50% will purchase an ICE but likely a low end model or 2nd hand....
So in 2023 if there are insufficient EVs available for purchase, perhaps up to 10 Million buyers will not buy an new car,,,
Obviously this is a "gold rush" supply and demand situation similar to toilet paper, and we know Tesla is working on rapidly scaling battery production, with a mature vehicle platform at exactly the right time..

On a brighter note, All you all's "old" Teslas will still have a high resale value.
Here is a choice in 2025.... A 2019 Model Y, or an ICE Porsche rom the same year that cost more than twice as much when they were both new. Which is going to be sold first if they are priced the same?

 

[mickle]

As usual Australia has the perfect solution to covid-19, it will only be a matter of time before the rest of the world follows our excellent lead..

Coronavirus COVID-19: Why is everyone buying toilet paper? - ABC Life

But there is a lesson on supply and demand here...

I saw these stories and I'm like "yeah right I'm ignoring that" .....

My wife comes home yesterday, "They are out of toilet paper at X and Y....."

Sure enough I visit my local supermarket today and the shelf is stripped bare....

I know when toilet paper is selling on EBay for $20 per roll, we will have to buy, and the wife will be looking at me....

This is what happens when demand outstrips supply, it is gold rush....

At least we have finally found an investment that might out perform Tesla over the short term..

If you are still buying toilet paper, you haven't figured out what to do with your TSLA profits yet. Don't even think about an island unless you've already got a good bidet toilet seat -- I love my Toto S550e. We use about 1/10th the toilet paper we used to. And nothing beats sitting on a warm seat in the morning while you're checking the stock market.

 

[MC3OZ]

Fast forward further into the future when the EV market is fully saturated.

New car demand may drop due to the following factors:-

• EVs and batteries lasting 20 or more years..
• TaaS Robo-taxis - lower private car ownership.
• Fewer accidents due to Robo-taxis, and better driver assistance.

At that time say 2035-2040 Tesla is no longer simply a car company it is a diverse business with income streams including:-

• Cars
• Robo-Taxis
• Insurance
• Energy Products
• Servicing
• Fast charging
• Accessories and software

By the time we get to 2035, the list above will be much longer...

It is also likely that by the time we get to 2035 EVs and batteries may last significantly longer than 20 years....

But by 2035 I will not be surprised of most new houses include solar and a battery... so I think Tesla will probably make a seamless transition to other revenue streams...

Now consider the future for other car makers...

• Can they scale production volumes rapidly before 2035?
• How do they handle the permanent drop off in demand after 2035?

No point in turning up with a truckload of toilet paper just at the time everyone is wondering why they stockpiled so much of the stuff.

This is the one case where timing the market is very important, and Tesla seems to be timing the market brilliantly.

 

[StealthP3D]

How did you know when to sell QCOM?

When it had run its course. There is no easy answer for that but I knew it when it happened. I had three months to unload it all near the top (and I did). But it's important on a gorilla to not do it too soon. Most people do.

 

[Highway2Heel]

GM + EV + UAW = WTF

Color me unimpressed. Way too little...waaaay too late...

 

[dano-oly]

If you are still buying toilet paper, you haven't figured out what to do with your TSLA profits yet. Don't even think about an island unless you've already got a good bidet toilet seat -- I love my Toto S550e. We use about 1/10th the toilet paper we used to. And nothing beats sitting on a warm seat in the morning while you're checking the stock market.

Are these the paper losses being discussing here?

 

[UncaNed]

I think we'll have hit well over $1000 by the time the election happens unless there is a bear market in the interim. And I don't really expect that at this point in time.

I think we will have hit 1000 at least 5 times before the election.

Can't wait to see how this ages...

 

[MC3OZ]

Sure, they can sell 'em, but can they make 'em?

We may find out on battery investor day... scaling production will be a challenge for Tesla, and a bigger challenge for most other car makers..

 

[tslagreen]

Anxious to read your review mate!

Will do! Looking forward to it.

 

[jhm]

Normally I'm not a superbull. I couldn't pull the trigger on TSLA until almost 9 years after I started following it (at the IPO). The puzzle pieces didn't "line up" right for me. I look at the risk to reward ratio and call it how I see it. That's why my cost basis is in the low-mid $200's. Yeah, I wished I had bought at the IPO but it didn't fit my risk/likely reward profile at the time.

It might make you feel better to know I haven't been this bullish on any of my stocks since 1998 when I was blown away by the potential I saw in Qualcomm. Yes, over 20 years ago. Don't get me wrong, I've had plenty of great profits since then but I was not a "superbull" on any of them. Fortunately, Qualcomm didn't really take off until more than a year after I turned "superbull" and it had declined by 30%. That gave me time to load up on the dips. I even sold a house and put 90% of the proceeds into Qualcomm (on top of my already large position). When the fuse was finally lit it ended up returning over 3600% in a little over a year. The chart doesn't even tell the whole story because there was the Leap Wireless spin-off which was sold for a tidy profit on top of the insane share price appreciation. I'm less bullish on TSLA in the 1-2 year timeframe vs. 1998 QCOM (it might double) and more bullish on TSLA for the long game, stationary storage, battery manufacturing, autonomy, etc. It has good potential to turn into a financial steamroller. But I could change my mind at any moment.

I'm a strange mix of very cautious investor and a "break all the conservative rules" investor. I don't go in big unless all the puzzle pieces line up right. I've turned down more excellent investments than you can count on your fingers and toes. But on the other hand, I rarely lose much money. I have very few minor disasters under my belt considering how many times I've jumped in big. I like to scoop up the money in big piles when the gettin' is good, when I see the opportunity to do it with great odds on my side. And riding the long "slow" appreciation of solid stocks like MSFT and SBUX, often for 5-10 years at a time. Scalping a few bucks here and there before slinking off in the shadow is not my style. If it's not going to move the needle, I'm not interested.

All that said, let's take a look TSLA share price history after the election, assuming a bear market isn't happening. BTW, elections are weak market medicines (bad or good). Look at Obama's first four years vs. Trumps first four years. Or Obama's second four years vs. Trump's first four years. Although polar opposites, the markets responded very similarly through it all.

Thanks for sharing. Lately I've been tidying up my portfolio. I am come to the perspective that to hold a single name stock, rather than some sort of index fund, I need to have a pretty good idea why I want that. For growth stock, they need to have an expectation that they will double in 5 years or less. The S&P 500 doubles in 8 to 10 years. So a name worth holding needs to grow much quicker than that. I'm not done grooming my portfolio, but I'm getting a clearer picture of where I'm headed.

Curiously this clean up was prompted by recent Tesla gains. I wanted to be sure I had enough diversification. But I realized that I had a bunch of boring crud that was no better that index funds and too small to offer any meaningful diversification. My wife and I have about half of our investments in 401k accounts that only allow index funds. So we've got plenty of that. The question for my self-directed investments is what stocks look to be strong enough to merit more attention and accumulation. Several of my stocks have outperformed Tesla over the last 5 years, specifically SEDG and AMZN. But I was not as attentive to accumulating them as I was to Tesla. So for me, diversification means getting rid of clutter and focusing on a few really good names that have the potential to rival Tesla in performance.

 

[EVNow]

That wasn't caused by a virus.

Don't mix up your apples and oranges.

I don't eat either. They are both same to me

I expect significant economic risk this year because of coronavirus. I've explained my reasons in the coronavirus thread.

ps :

I'm not sure about this.

From various statements and actions locally (including daily mails from my office and from the school etc), I expect big disruptions when someone tests positive.
- Individual school will be shutdown, for the first case. More cases would shutdown the school district indefinitely. Already there are a number of petitions going around to shutdown schools with 10k+ signatures. Same for the university.
- With an office, when an individual or two tests positive - they will do "cleaning" and quarantine co-workers. Few more cases would close the office "indefinitely".
- All large gatherings will be banned, at some point (county already talking about it)
- At some point flights will be banned or voluntarily shutdown by airlines when the # of people traveling plummets. (United scaled back 10% already)

All this for Seattle area. What happens if this repeats in other cities … ?

My pessimistic view is because of knee-jerk reaction we see with everything in US. One AV accident - lets ban AV. One "tested negative" case in the immigration center - lets close it for 14 days. School closed for a week because a staff's family member had flu-like symptoms.

What happens when we have 1,000 confirmed cases in the city ?

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