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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
As I understand this, these Gov't programs are a macroeconomic function. The currency is just printed up by the national governments. It is mildly inflationary but in a zero inflationary time it is in the noise mostly IMO.
There can be misconceptions about this. Years ago the US had a crisis known as the S&L bailout. There was a lot of money being paid out to bail out failing banking structures known as S&Ls. It worked out to something like $2,300 per individual in the US. But nobody felt it a bit as I remember it. This is because it is never paid back really and there is little reason to pay it back. Bonds may be issued and inflation over decades diminishes the "debt".
In this case the feds will probably print tons of money and a large portion goes to individuals who spend it on products or services that come from companies traded on the stock exchanges. It will go into earnings that will eventually look good to the market starting in a few months.
Some money will end up overseas but some of that will be spent by foreign investors investing in the US markets anyway. So what goes around ...
As I see it, the issue is the short term economic pressures. Getting lots of money out there is a relief value to pressures that could be deconstructive.
Yesterday I got a second margin call on a loan secured against stocks. They wanted to sell now to cover the margin needs but that is unhelpful right now. The problem is not me, it is the overall markets. First time I added some cash but this time I just moved some existing stocks to different accounts to meet the backstop requirements of the loan. I was comfortable doing this rather than selling stocks to close the loan because I know there is money coming to me and to others that will relieve the downward pressure on stocks.
Shortly I will likely do a HELOC at very good rates to reposition this loan against real estate rather than securities which was my plan all along but I never thought I would see rates this low .... what a benefit this will be!
The market is looking 6 months out and with each day, the more rosy picture 6 months out is getting closer and the markets are tending, just a little during this turbulent period, to favor the up side just a bit. More lows could be ahead but the (upward) trend has turned IMO as buyers are finding it hard to think of missing out on these prices. Inevitably there are trillions coming into the business markets over the next year of so.
These violent delights have violent ends (Westworld reference to violent market swings)... but there _is_ an end projected about 6 months out. I have not sold a single stock and nibbled a bit. I can choose stocks but have no clue about market bottoms or tops.
It is a time to be compassionate and open to changes in our daily lives and being steadfast in a time of uncertainty but those that have invested wisely will likely do well. YMMV
The market is acting like all bad news is known and that it gets better from here. Obviously this is what it wants to believe. Coupled with zero interest rates and stimulus bill the bull argument is the sky is the limit.
I don’t see how it is possible for all bad news to be known and factored in at this point. OTOH, I have been consistently wrong the past two months and a terrific contrarian indicator.
Hard to imagine the bear is dead from here but see above.
I am very grateful for all my long term buys which I have only added to the past few weeks. I confess I thought I would get better opportunities.
I don’t see how it is possible for all bad news to be known and factored in at this point. OTOH, I have been consistently wrong the past two months and a terrific contrarian indicator.
Hard to imagine the bear is dead from here but see above.
I am very grateful for all my long term buys which I have only added to the past few weeks. I confess I thought I would get better opportunities.
anthonyj
Stonks
Bears are never going to touch puts on this stonk again after this
dc_h
Active Member
The Federal Reserve increases money supply by buying Government bonds from banks. They trade non cash financial instruments for cash and thereby increase money supply. When the economy heats up, they will sell bonds to banks and reduce money supply.
During demand side recessions, the fed will push money into banks and drive down the cost of borrowing. This increases the number of marginally profitable business opportunities and can drive consumer savings by reducing borrowing costs. During extreme demand issues the Fed now goes beyond buying bonds from banks and enters the stock and bond market directly, becoming a buyer of last resort and making market to avoid meltdowns. QE raised the bar for Fed intervention and has been engaged the last couple of weeks. The likely long term impact is to reduce the jungle morality of the market, where people get burned for over leveraging, or all companies get a participation award. Causalien noted that this propping up of the market can be seen as a very negative and concerning issue, pushing a bigger bubble down the road.
Hopefully the virus peaks in the next 6 weeks and the stimulus and support works and we can start focusing on Tesla bouncing back in Q2.
I am wrestling with the idea that today's SP will look like a genius move in less than 2 years ... was hoping for a drop to $350 have limit order there but not sure we will see it again ever
... what to do ?New position at $445, thinking if it rise another 30% I'm gonna sale when it hits $600s and buy more shares when it heads south $300s
I'm in all cash and looking dumb right now, but I still believe the overall market will take another leg down before this is all over. I think Tesla will as well, but not as convinced of that as I am of the overall market.
anthonyj
Stonks
I like that idea actually. Better than buying at $900 and selling at $350 and buying at $550
The level of delusion in the market is incredible. Like all these jobs will be back in a month (or 6)...
More likely, given the 4 trillions injected, markets do not really need to care about the real economy.
After all, investors know that if there is any issue, plebs will be asked to pay.
Edit: happy for TSLA of course, but I am sad and worried for the common man..
More likely, given the 4 trillions injected, markets do not really need to care about the real economy.
After all, investors know that if there is any issue, plebs will be asked to pay.
Edit: happy for TSLA of course, but I am sad and worried for the common man..
You're not the only one! I bought at the 350 drop and then foolishly sold at 435 thinking it was going to tank again... still waiting... waiting...
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Fed not buying TSLA but buying other stocks ?
The ICO car terminal in Zeebrugge (that handles the Model 3s for Europe) expects to see its activity fall back to 30% because of stopped production in car factories. In addition, currently 150 of the 500 dock workers have reported ill.
Coronavirus dreigt nu ook gigantische autoterminal lam te leggen: “150 van onze havenarbeiders zijn ziek”
Edit: replaced link with public one.
Coronavirus dreigt nu ook gigantische autoterminal lam te leggen: “150 van onze havenarbeiders zijn ziek”
Edit: replaced link with public one.
Personally, I made a new position this morning at $550. It is a position that I have with both great loathing and hope. I sold at 425 and held cash down to the $350 low without pulling the trigger. Not because I lost faith that TSLA is a multigenerational wealth machine, but because I got greedy and wanted to increase my share count. Now I have fewer shares than I would have and no certainty as to the short term direction of the market in general or Tesla.
What I can say with regard to the stimulus bill is that it will make an enormous difference in the economy in the short and long term. The $1200 per person is a bit of a joke in the grand scheme of things. For some people living on the edge it will be a lifeline, but for most the amount of disruption in their personal finances will not be soothed by even two or three thousand dollars.
On the other hand, the small business section looks to be huge. Small businesses are the major employer in the US and I am one of them. Last week I was literally having an anxiety attack for the first time in my life. While financially I was well insulated, my partners, staff, and their families are not quite as much. How was I going to support them and make it through this disruption on the other side?
The SBA loan/grant, if I understand the language correctly, will not only give us the breathing room we need, but will also allow us to take some of the time we would otherwise be using to conduct business and work ON the business instead of IN it. Our short and medium term cash flow needs will be met. We'll be able to re-hire the folks we laid off already, and maybe we can even emerge stronger than before. And these loans will be forgiven if we keep people on staff.
Many countries have already seen the curve bend down. I'm not hopeful that we're anywhere near the peak of this disease. I'm sitting in my basement, isolated from my family, wearing a surgical mask as I type this. Knowing that we had a client in to office last week who is presumptively positive and now I have a cough and chest tightness, I'm taking silly precautions since I feel almost completely normal at the moment.
At the end of the day, Tesla is a multigenerational company, well-capitalized, and will likely ROAR when this is all over. Ford, GM, and the rest are in deep trouble. Right now! Who will be there to pick up the slack? TSLA>
What I can say with regard to the stimulus bill is that it will make an enormous difference in the economy in the short and long term. The $1200 per person is a bit of a joke in the grand scheme of things. For some people living on the edge it will be a lifeline, but for most the amount of disruption in their personal finances will not be soothed by even two or three thousand dollars.
On the other hand, the small business section looks to be huge. Small businesses are the major employer in the US and I am one of them. Last week I was literally having an anxiety attack for the first time in my life. While financially I was well insulated, my partners, staff, and their families are not quite as much. How was I going to support them and make it through this disruption on the other side?
The SBA loan/grant, if I understand the language correctly, will not only give us the breathing room we need, but will also allow us to take some of the time we would otherwise be using to conduct business and work ON the business instead of IN it. Our short and medium term cash flow needs will be met. We'll be able to re-hire the folks we laid off already, and maybe we can even emerge stronger than before. And these loans will be forgiven if we keep people on staff.
Many countries have already seen the curve bend down. I'm not hopeful that we're anywhere near the peak of this disease. I'm sitting in my basement, isolated from my family, wearing a surgical mask as I type this. Knowing that we had a client in to office last week who is presumptively positive and now I have a cough and chest tightness, I'm taking silly precautions since I feel almost completely normal at the moment.
At the end of the day, Tesla is a multigenerational company, well-capitalized, and will likely ROAR when this is all over. Ford, GM, and the rest are in deep trouble. Right now! Who will be there to pick up the slack? TSLA>
Pezpunk
Active Member
when are you ding dongs going to realize you suck at timing the market? just buy and hold. you'll do better.
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