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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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OT
I think the Canadian oil sands get picked on way too much. Would you rather get oil from countries that have no environmental regulations, no human rights, and where only corrupt governments profit. Yes it does take a bit more CO2 to extract the oil from oil sands because of the SAGD process but it’s really not that much more than other extraction techniques especially when you have to ship that oil. Steam is used in many other parts of the world to extract oil but you never hear people protesting about that. Oil companies in Canada are continuing working on extracting the oil in a more sustainable manner. Also if this pipeline is not built then it hurts the Canadian people because we will not get a fair price for are oil. Right now western Canadian select is under 10. Not having enough pipeline capacity is destroying our economy. Plus if these pipelines don’t get built then there will be more shipping oil by rail which is worse for the environment. It’s probably a better idea to pick the lesser of two evils cause this oil is going to be produced anyways.
As someone who has a relative who works in the oil sands, I say the sooner they stop burning it the better. Insanity of fossil fools must end.
 
Although it hasn't been a popular opinion around here, I'm really hoping and looking forward to the potential for a big supply deal with another auto OEM. Many have dismissed any benefits for Tesla to do this, but I see this as the easiest and fastest way to really scale to multi-million units per year. Once the TWh manufacturing capacity has been built, they could pump out and supply skateboards to other OEM'S in huge numbers. Not only will this help transition others to EV's, but it will solidify Tesla's lead in EV powertrains and bring huge amounts of revenue. I'm hoping that plans to eventually do this are alluded to or even announced during battery day.
I still don’t see this as anything but a disaster. Two options:

1). The OEMs literally add nothing but bodies and seats. I see zero value added there. In fact, any radically different body styling could (I would think) require recalibration of the Autopilot because of different camera locations and visibility. And a body with bad aerodynamics would decrease range. Would Tesla really want their powertrain associated with vehicles that get crappy range?

2). The OEMs provide additional functionality to the "skateboard" such as unique cockpit displays, suspension, sound systems, HVAC, etc. in other words, the supply chain and software integration nightmare they are currently experiencing in their EV development. Tesla would have to supply unique software integration and OTA support to each OEM. No way.

in either case, Tesla would have to expand its service capabilities to cars partially built by other manufacturers.

Bottom line : Tesla prides itself on its vertical integration and total systems integration expertise. What you are proposing destroys both. They would lose control of the total vehicle quality. It would be neither easy nor fast.
 
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I still don’t see this as anything but a disaster. Two options:

1). The OEMs literally add nothing but bodies and seats. I see zero value added there. In fact, any radically different body styling could (I would think) require recalibration of the Autopilot because of different camera locations and visibility. And a body with bad aerodynamics would decrease range. Would Tesla really want their powertrain associated with vehicles that get crappy range?

2). The OEMs provide additional functionality to the "skateboard" such as unique cockpit displays, suspension, sound systems, HVAC, etc. in other words, the supply chain and software integration nightmare they are currently experiencing in their EV development. Tesla would have to supply unique software integration and OTA support to each OEM. No way.

Bottom line : Tesla prides itself on its vertical integration and total systems integration expertise. What you are proposing destroys both. They would lose control of the total vehicle quality. It would be neither easy nor fast.

As well Tesla is cell constrained and may be cell constrained for perhaps the next 5-10 years, the best return is in using their cells in their own products.. any other solution is splitting the margin...

There is some potential for other automakers to use Tesla battery packs and motors, and some potential to license and sell other components... but that is Tesla supplying in house components unaltered in any way for a profit... that may or may not happen, but I'm finding it hard to imagine it happening with battery packs anytime soon.

Tesla energy will need a lot of cells that is also part of the 2TWh.
 
As well Tesla is cell constrained and may be cell constrained for perhaps the next 5-10 years, the best return is in using their cells in their own products.. any other solution is splitting the margin...

There is some potential for other automakers to use Tesla battery packs and motors, and some potential to license and sell other components... but that is Tesla supplying in house components unaltered in any way for a profit... that may or may not happen, but I'm finding it hard to imagine it happening with battery packs anytime soon.

Tesla energy will need a lot of cells that is also part of the 2TWh.
Even this requires the battery management and motor controller software, which once again would lead to Tesla software and OTA support for configurations outside their control. It would be like the continuous and unending Windows S/W updates and patches.
 
Although it hasn't been a popular opinion around here, I'm really hoping and looking forward to the potential for a big supply deal with another auto OEM. Many have dismissed any benefits for Tesla to do this, but I see this as the easiest and fastest way to really scale to multi-million units per year. Once the TWh manufacturing capacity has been built, they could pump out and supply skateboards to other OEM'S in huge numbers. Not only will this help transition others to EV's, but it will solidify Tesla's lead in EV powertrains and bring huge amounts of revenue. I'm hoping that plans to eventually do this are alluded to or even announced during battery day.

This is a terrible idea imo:
  1. Tesla's vehicle and energy businesses have both been severely battery constrained for a while now. Tesla could easily introduce the Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster 2, and sell a ton more Powerwalls, Powerpacks, and Megapacks, if only they had more batteries.
  2. Most OEMs have shown an extreme unwillingness to transition to EVs, and are doing the bare minimum to comply with regulations, and in many cases not even that. Furthermore, the Taycan and ID.3 problems have shown that Tesla would be best off not relying on other OEMs to transition the world to sustainable transportation. Better to do it themselves.
  3. Working together with OEMs is going to create a lot of headaches and complications. It's so much easier to supply the batteries to their own factories, and integrate the batteries into their own products, than it would be to do the same for other companies.
 
I started to notice some of my friends are starting to become Tesla bulls. Many of them are trying to buy shares at 400. They weren’t really bears but more neutral on Tesla. I think they needed to be in my car enough to understand what I’m talking about. I think this may be a trend that will start to accelerate. Should bode well for sales and share price.
 
Anyone catch what was said that’s “not true”?

Could be TSLA relevant.
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Although it hasn't been a popular opinion around here, I'm really hoping and looking forward to the potential for a big supply deal with another auto OEM. Many have dismissed any benefits for Tesla to do this, but I see this as the easiest and fastest way to really scale to multi-million units per year. Once the TWh manufacturing capacity has been built, they could pump out and supply skateboards to other OEM'S in huge numbers. Not only will this help transition others to EV's, but it will solidify Tesla's lead in EV powertrains and bring huge amounts of revenue. I'm hoping that plans to eventually do this are alluded to or even announced during battery day.
Seems logical, but that would no longer work. Tesla has become extremely integrated product. E.g. the battery heating cooling system is integrated with the cabin HVAC. Similarly motor control is integrated. Now technically they still could give the battery wihtout the HVAC system or a somewhat dumbed down system, but it no longer makes sense. There is clearly demand for traditional UI interfaced electric car, so their would be some merit, but the cons are overwhelming at this point.
 
The notion of Tesla supplying powertrains and/or batteries to other OEMs is fantastic! Focusing on the two things they do best would be the ideal scenario for the company. Depending on the terms and volumes of these deals, the stock would absolutely explode like a rocket and lead to early retirement for many of us. :)

The obvious roadblock is the battery constraint problem. One of my two biggest pipe dreams about Battery Day is Elon revealing how this is solved. (The other is a significant reduction in battery costs).

Don't worry, this doesn't mean Tesla would cease building cars.
 
The notion of Tesla supplying powertrains and/or batteries to other OEMs is fantastic! Focusing on the two things they do best would be the ideal scenario for the company. Depending on the terms and volumes of these deals, the stock would absolutely explode like a rocket and lead to early retirement for many of us. :)

I don't have any issues with Tesla becoming a battery supplier to other car makers but that's not going to happen for many years. They will ramp battery production like crazy but they will all get sucked up for years to come by Powerwalls, PowerPacks, MegaPacks, Tesla Semis, Cybertrucks, Roadster II's and Models 3 and Y (and who knows what else they will dream up in the interim).

I can't see them having surplus batteries for at least 8 years even with perfect execution of battery manufacturing ramp-up.
 
The notion of Tesla supplying powertrains and/or batteries to other OEMs is fantastic! Focusing on the two things they do best would be the ideal scenario for the company. Depending on the terms and volumes of these deals, the stock would absolutely explode like a rocket and lead to early retirement for many of us. :)

The obvious roadblock is the battery constraint problem. One of my two biggest pipe dreams about Battery Day is Elon revealing how this is solved. (The other is a significant reduction in battery costs).

Don't worry, this doesn't mean Tesla would cease building cars.

I think it will be solved to the extent that battery production is faster to scale up, can be scaled in smaller increments and is lower capex.

But even then it is not apparent to me if Tesla will scale battery production at some stage beyond what they can use for internal products..

Energy storage will use a lot of batteries as will the Tesla Semi

But assuming battery production can be scaled so quickly and cost effectively that Tesla can easily produce more than they need and sell the excess to competitors and a good markup, then that is a good idea as it will help fund the expansion and construction of car factories.

Even if we assume this is possible, I don't think it is possible anytime soon, I can see Tesla needing 5 years just to ramp to the point where their internal supply fully satisfies all automative and energy storage products.

As that may be why Elon mentioned mining, there is some limit on the rate at which additional raw materials become available.
 
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