Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Cattledog]

I disagreed with this because I cannot find a single instance where Elon or ANYBODY from Tesla said this was going to be in the Model Y, let alone "on day 1" but I'm happy go be corrected.

There was a PATENT for this super duper wiring that I'm sure was made into an "article" on that eclectictrick site with a whisper-down-the-lane "ZOMG it's going to be in the Model Y fo sho!!!" but this was just the internet deciding it was going to be in there, not Tesla, not Elon.

I don't have the time to track it down right now but he said it, I believe on an earnings call, annual meeting or perhaps the unveil. My memory is he said less than 100 meters wiring, which would have been about 15 times less than Model 3. But as stated above, they went for commonality of systems and speed to market. They can now integrate this into the 3 and Y at some moment in the future.

Fun day.

 

[Pezpunk]

somebody tell TSLA the market is closed, it can stop going up now

 

[dl003]

I've seen this movie before so I'm gonna hold my excitement till Friday.

 

[Nocturnal]

Still going up? Weird but I'll take it. TSLA gonna TSLA I guess.

 

[Zero CO2]

I have noticed a marked improvement in the mood of the contributors on this thread today ... go TSLA green

 

[Zero CO2]

I'm all for clean/cleaner air and EV's everywhere, but this type of bolded 'anaylsis' is barely an anecdote. SoCal has has a LOT of wind and rain storms in the past few weeks (unusual in April), and even without the COVID slowdown, the air would have easily been clean on one day.

it is still fun to point out ... all i know is I am outside in NYC and and i can see stars at night ... and the air is crisp and clean ... this is real ... lets see how it compares

so there have been constant storms since mid march?

pretty big difference showing up here that does not look anecdotal

 

[junas]

I haven't seen any indication that Tesla can't deliver the entire China production in China for as far as the eye can see. If and when they have excess production at GF3, they will sell them in the greater Asian region before shipping them to Europe. I don't see that happening until well after they have the GF3 factory expansion complete and are pumping out lots and lots of Model Y's.

While you are probably right that Tesla can deliver all their MIC production locally, it's not necessarily their best option financially.

European FCAU pooling deal should be worth at least $600M this year, but to get that money Tesla needs to sell the cars in Europe. If Fremont reopens soon enough the problem is solved, but if not... then MIC cars are more than badly needed. For example: If Tesla planned shipping 80,000 cars this year to Europe the deal ($600M) makes $7500 extra profit per car. It doesn't matter if those are produced in Fremont or in China, but Tesla is not so stupid they leave that kind of money on the table.

Of course, as discussed many times here, we don't know the exact details of the deal. It could be worse or better than estimated. How many cars exactly must be delivered to reach $600M or $800M pooling compensation? We simply don't know. Recently Ben Kallo estimated that the deal is $150-200M per quarter: "The Italian-American automaker reached an agreement with Tesla last spring that could cost Fiat Chrysler an estimated 1.8 billion ($2 billion) through 2023. That breaks out to about $150 million to $200 million per quarter and will pad Tesla’s profit margins starting in the first three months of this year, according to Baird analyst Ben Kallo."

I still hope you are right and Fremont reopens soon enough to handle all this, but just giving one more perspective.

 

[Etna]

My key takeaway from Munro's videos so far is that Model Y is much simpler than Model 3 and should costs substantially less to manufacture. I can also see a lot of those improvements making their way back into the Model 3, like that cable-in-a-tube going from the charging port to the battery.

The team is clearly focused on lowering costs and increasing operating margins. And fast.

 

[Intl Professor]

Finally, astounding $5 increase over my last purchase at $645! Go long!

 

[wipster]

Can you say 671? At this rate it'll be over 1,000 by tomorrow's opening!

 

[Mo City]

650.95! What an incredible day. The chatter last Thu evening was how TSLA exploded after hours. Today made that look like nothing. The momentum continues after hours (for now).

With all the growth that appears to be on the table, coupled with Elon’s sense of urgency, I am beginning to think leading the way to sustainability is no longer the goal. I think it’s more like world domination.

I don't think Elon's goal has changed. He still wants the other auto companies to join him. The fastest possible transition to renewable energy remains his primary objective.

Some of us said early on C19 might put Tesla in a much stronger market position going forward. Seems like that bandwagon is loaded now. At the same time, this is a competitive business and Elon will attempt to capitalize. If domination is achievable, he'll take it.

I repeat: The day is coming (not soon) when the other auto companies will demand the government protect them and reign in Tesla.

 

[gerebgraus]

Checking the historical record, Elon mentioning an FSD-related timeline is evidence that it should be dismissed.

Elon's publicly declared goals used to be the same as the extremely inspirational internal goals. In the last year, he separated the two and the public goals are now similar to the customary method of conservative targets that can be beaten.
I am still skeptical about the end of the year, but I start to believe next year.
I suspect that while major new advances were necessary before, now refinements and learning will do the trick.

 

[wipster]

My key takeaway from Munro's videos so far is that Model Y is much simpler than Model 3 and should costs substantially less to manufacture. I can also see a lot of those improvements making their way back into the Model 3, like that cable-in-a-tube going from the charging port to the battery.

The team is clearly focused on lowering costs and increasing operating margins. And fast.

Now that the Shanghai plant is rolling, I wonder what other improvements we'll see in the near future? We Americans have a tendency to think we're the innovators and the Asians are just the manufacturers, but I would bet the staff that Elon and crew have hired over there are extremely smart as well and have the ability to see things from a different angle. I'm looking for to some really surprising innovations and improvements in the future!

 

[hobbes]

I disagreed with this because I cannot find a single instance where Elon or ANYBODY from Tesla said this was going to be in the Model Y, let alone "on day 1" but I'm happy go be corrected.

There was a PATENT for this super duper wiring that I'm sure was made into an "article" on that eclectictrick site with a whisper-down-the-lane "ZOMG it's going to be in the Model Y fo sho!!!" but this was just the internet deciding it was going to be in there, not Tesla, not Elon.

LMGTFY:

In today's 1Q conference call, Elon stated that Model Y will not use a CAN bus, and instead use a new high speed bus. He said that while Model S used 3 km of wiring, and the Model 3 uses 1.5 km of wiring, the Model Y will use 100m.

He also said they will finally discard the legacy 12V power, which he derided as saying wasn't the right voltage for anything.

Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) Q1 2017 Earnings Conference Call - Final Transcript | Alphastreet

 

[printf42]

I disagreed with this because I cannot find a single instance where Elon or ANYBODY from Tesla said this was going to be in the Model Y, let alone "on day 1" but I'm happy go be corrected.

There was a PATENT for this super duper wiring that I'm sure was made into an "article" on that eclectictrick site with a whisper-down-the-lane "ZOMG it's going to be in the Model Y fo sho!!!" but this was just the internet deciding it was going to be in there, not Tesla, not Elon.

Have to set the record straight, Elon did say “Model Y wiring is going to be 100meters” on Q1 2017 call.(starting at 36:40)

But that was before Model Y reveal, even before Model 3 ramp, and they seemed to be planning to build Y off a new platform.

Many things changed after that, and Model Y timeline has been fast tracked greatly, probably the reason they decided to use the same platform instead.

Or, probably the model Y eventually became CyberTruck. And they decided to lift Model 3 to fill the gap.

 

[Mo City]

Elon's publicly declared goals used to be the same as the extremely inspirational internal goals. In the last year, he separated the two and the public goals are now similar to the customary method of conservative targets that can be beaten.

Completely agreed with the exception of his statements about AP. IMO, those still fall under "inspirational" and are unlikely to happen.

 

[dw4ngg]

Intraday calls were pretty easy today! Wish it were like that every day. Closed them out end of day, even though I think TSLA will continue higher at least in the morning tomorrow, because well, I don't want to get greedy with short term plays. Great day for TSLA longs! And a fitting rise up, given its the Monday after Easter Sunday. Cheers.

 

[JustSaying]

Not sure if the Octo bottle or the bottle of Canadian Club is the more interesting find...

After selling a few more little bolts and tables , there might be a bottle of Gentleman Jack in future videos.
Actually these daily videos contain great info and I contributed a few bucks to Munro live.

 

[Sancho]

One more thing that might be contributing to the fast SP rise: if you are a short, one of the most painful months of your entire life was just 3 months ago when TSLA shot from $400-800. What was great fun for us was cataclysmic for shorts.

How could they not have PTSD for a wound that is still fresh?

So while they were more than happy to jump on the stock when things were looking down last month, they have to be pretty skittish about getting run over again. So it’s not surprising to now see a hasty retreat.

 

[Pras]

Just a reminder for future. The day T(C)hanos decided to go maximum short, it was a buy signal.