Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Lbkmxp100d]

Well, AH $867 now. I knew $880 level is hard to maintain and probably not realistic at this point... but that was a good time

TSLA will be over 900 tomorrow on its way to 1k+ next week short of complete meltdown by macro. there is too many good things out of this ER

 

[SebastianR]

Very nice results in ver difficult times. Well done TSLA. Cheers to the longs!

 

[EVNow]

That's a lot of credits. InsideEV's reported 21,225 Teslas sold in Q1 in Europe.

Europe: Tesla Model 3 Sales Surged In March To #1 In Q1 2020

so that would be $16,700 per vehicle! Per some earlier analysis I did, those would all be "Supercredit" vehicles with a maximum penalty reduction value of $21,194 each (19,490€) which would imply FCA is paying Tesla ~80% of their penalty reduction value. That seems like an awfully lot.

There are a lot of variables in those calculations, mainly the number of FCA ICE vehicles sold. I may try to dig that up when tonight's hangover wears off.

Also, not all of $354M is from FCA Europe. Some of that will be from US and other places too.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

It's weird when something happens and I think "Damn, I should have risked it all" on calls. Wait, that happens all the time with TSLA. MAYBE ONE DAY I'LL LEARN TO STOP DOUBTING ELON'S VIBE. /slaps self

Well, what calls I do have are going to print. So enjoy the small victories, I guess.

 

[wipster]

why would not you buy tomorrow at $900

I didn't sell at 940... I think he was regretting his sale...

 

[hershey101]

TSLA will be over 900 tomorrow on its way to 1k+ next week short of complete meltdown by macro. there is too many good things out of this ER

The report is good. Yes.. But those numbers are not realistic, unless $TSLA magically added a bunch of crazy shorts during the march dip who haven't covered yet.

For those who are talking about S&P inclusion... Can you explain to me how we get to a profitable Q2? What's the path to profitability this quarter?
Q1 profits are primarily derived from credits (which may not be this large). They lost ~1month in Q1. They have already lost 1month in Q2, and will lose another 2-4 weeks (if not more)...

Also S&P inclusion has historically been a ~5-10% movement... Which in the $TSLA world, is just another Tuesday... So may not be as big a deal. If anything, it would dampen volatility, which would suck honestly.

 

[kbM3]

The real firework is 25.5% GM. Less car sales = higher GM. Unreal.

Holy Crap Batman.

To be fair, the regulatory credits help account for that gaudy gross margin.

Tesla also lists gross margins not including regulatory credits, and they are right around 20%, basically flat from the last 2 quarters.

Although considering the circumstances, the reduced deliveries, the product ramps..., this is still a magnificent result.

 

[johnm6875]

I may soon regret selling 50 shares at 940 a couple months ago

It's not the selling at 940 but the the not buying at 540 a month later.

 

[Khamul]

Does anyone know when the call is? Debating if I should go to bed or not.

 

[Cherry Wine]

With regard to the timing of Fremont reopening, and consequently possible S&P500 inclusion, I think it's important to consider two things:

• As far as I can tell, there currently is no coherent plan for exiting lockdown in California, or anywhere in the US (or most of the western world for that matter), without causing a sharp second wave, forcing us right back into lockdown. This, combined with the extreme political pressure of the situation may well lead to rushed and/or poorly thought out policies, i.e. extreme political volatility wrt COVID-19.
• In the current political climate, "maintaining lockdown" is seen as a democratic policy and "opening the country" as a republican one. This may well lead to California erring on the side of ending lockdown too late, purely for tribal signaling.

In short: Predicting the end of the Californian lockdown is basically impossible, but I expect it to happen late rather than early.

I disagree with some of the points within this post, including the final takeaway. Governor Newsom has shown a pragmatism that goes beyond catering to his base at every opportunity -- case in point, praising Trump as needed in order to secure resources/assistance from the federal government (a sad reality, but here we are). Also, he hasn't gone out of his way to bash the President/Feds when he easily could have (broken vents). I also think Newsom is savvy enough to understand that he is enjoying a bump in opinion polls for taking decisive action when needed, and that any such goodwill would rapidly vanish in the face of widespread perception of an unnecessary lockdown. I think he badly wants to get the economy going again as soon as possible based upon the input of public health experts -- in fact, he is already telegraphing that the process will begin sooner than later, with comments like schools could resume as early as July, etc., etc.

If California residents remain smart and diligent in their approach to dealing with SARS-CoV-2, meaning reasonable distancing measures, proper use of PPE, etc., and we don't get a spike in COVID-19 cases, and we have the testing/tracing capabilities widely thought of as necessary to move to a stage of life beyond lockdown, I think this state could open up sooner than later. I wholeheartedly disagree with the notion that Newsom would keep California on lockdown simply for throwing meat to his base -- that would be political suicide. Democratic voters are much more quick to turn on their representatives when said reps make choices not supported by the facts.

Unfortunately for Tesla, I believe California's Executive Order is superseded by more restrictive local orders, and Bay Area county health officials, who have shown that they are willing to take risks and err on the side of caution, will likely feel less public pressure to open earlier than later. We could be in a position where a California-wide order is loosened and Tesla production is still sidelined by a more restrictive Alameda county-specific order for awhile longer. If I were Tesla, I would be having conversations with county officials now, asserting my experience with this issue as evinced by GF3, and arguing for an exemption from an extended lockdown order contingent upon best practices to limit the risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within the factory.

 

[ggr]

Does anyone know when the call is? Debating if I should go to bed or not.

15:30 Pacific time, which is an hour later than usual. 15 more minutes.

 

[smorgasbord]

Tasha Keeney on Tesla's 2020 Q1: ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney on Tesla's Q1 earnings report

She said Ford just killed their partnership with Rivian.
Other traditional auto companies "are just going to have to push Pause."

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Tesla's Earnings Look Great on All Fronts

--Except This One --

Would it be large enough for Tesla shares to meet the criteria for S&P 500 inclusion ??

 

[wipster]

Tasha Keeney on Tesla's 2020 Q1: ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney on Tesla's Q1 earnings report

She said Ford just killed their partnership with Rivian.
Other traditional auto companies "are just going to have to push Pause."

Wow! That's big. Good for Tesla, but bad for EV's in general. Hope Rivian can find some other sources for cash.

 

[Khamul]

15:30 Pacific time, which is an hour later than usual. 15 more minutes.

Thanks! Guess I'll stay up

 

[LJS22]

Tasha Keeney on Tesla's 2020 Q1: ARK Invest's Tasha Keeney on Tesla's Q1 earnings report

She said Ford just killed their partnership with Rivian.
Other traditional auto companies "are just going to have to push Pause."

I think this is a much bigger deal in terms of what Tesla has at their disposal. They may be able to ramp up China for higher production as more batteries will be available following these delays. I’m not sure the contract Ford and Rivian had with battery producers so I wonder if Tesla needed the batteries from an LG if they could sweep in and acquire more batteries.

might be a stretch but it seems this puts a void in the EV space that Tesla could fill for their demand as they prepare Semi.

 

[Todd Burch]

For those who are talking about S&P inclusion... Can you explain to me how we get to a profitable Q2? What's the path to profitability this quarter?
Q1 profits are primarily derived from credits (which may not be this large). They lost ~1month in Q1. They have already lost 1month in Q2, and will lose another 2-4 weeks (if not more)...

Also S&P inclusion has historically been a ~5-10% movement... Which in the $TSLA world, is just another Tuesday... So may not be as big a deal. If anything, it would dampen volatility, which would suck honestly.

I don’t know about profit, but some positives compared to Q1:

-Higher production from Shanghai w/ higher gross margins. Shanghai was also shut down a few weeks in Q1 that hopefully won’t happen in Q2.

-Higher mix of more profitable vehicles (Model Y, MY performance).

-Higher production/install rate of solar roof, with likely higher margins.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Profit is profit.

Indeed. Wife and I have been enjoying the fruits of our February sales immensely -- even if it sits in the garage most of the time these days.

 

[Mkorpal]

The music is so relaxing...

 

[Reductionist]

Governor Newsom has shown a pragmatism that goes beyond catering to his base at every opportunity

Completely agree with you an that. I didn't mean to imply that Newsom would literally be building COVID-19 policy based on whats politically fashionable. But I think it's reasonable to assume that more liberal states would be more cautious in relaxing lockdown measures than more conservative ones on average, which is what I meant with my original comment.