Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

This makes much more sense, although I still find the original wording confusing.

That'd require a very successful EoQ push, but ~15k worldwide inventory at the end of Q2 is within the realm of possibility. 2-3k worldwide inventory at the end of Q2 definitely isn't.

I just counted off EV-TSLA.com, and there is only 2.6k listed in all of the world.

So, either they're not listing all of their stock, or it really can be that low.

 

[Singuy]

Dan Levy of Credit Suisse has long been a TSLA bear.
* In January of 2020 he raise his TSLA price target from $200 to $340 while TSLA was over $420 and rising rapidly
* In late April he raised his TSLA price target to $700

He may be gaming the Q2 Production and Delivery report by trying to set expectations too high. That's what sinister bears do as we've seen FactSet analyst estimates in previous quarters where the bears were giving some of the highest numbers.

This q is all about that dollar. I don't think it matters if any analyst is too bearish or bullish. That dollar of profit is the difference between tanking or shooting to the moon. No one cares this q if tesla missed some kind of expectation by x amount. No matter the miss, if we get that dollar than it's rocket and fireworks.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Europe May 2020

 

[Khamul]

I don't recall seeing this linked here:

BMW works council backs electric-only platform-report

Asked about the report, a BMW spokesman said the company was currently “optimally positioned” and declined to comment on speculation about internal discussions

I wonder what it is that they're optimally positioned for??

 

[Tslynk67]

Is this Factchecking on Twitter? I forgot it‘s his birthday too today...

https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1277321864101138433?s=21

Yeah, that's @FC...

Edit: And I have several times asked FC and Karen to come back here, but no luck as of yet

 

[FrankSG]

I just counted off EV-TSLA.com, and there is only 2.6k listed in all of the world.

So, either they're not listing all of their stock, or it really can be that low.

Production in Fremont is nearly 10k/week, or ~1,430/day.

Production in Shanghai is 4k/week, or ~570/day.

Total production is therefore nearly 14k/week, or ~2,000/day.

Even if there were 0 showroom cars, 0 test drive cars, 0 loaner cars, etc. 2-3k worldwide inventory at EoQ would mean that Tesla basically delivered every single vehicle produced until about mid-day on the second to last day of the quarter.

Tesla's inventory at end of Q4'19, which was the lowest it had been in 4 years, was 11 days of sales using TTM deliveries, and ~9 days of sales using Q4 deliveries. It's extremely unlikely that inventory is now suddenly at 1.5 days worth of production. Simply extremely unrealistic.

I know there's a lot of hype about Q2 being strong in spite of COVID-19 shutdowns, and about a possible S&P 500 inclusion, which would in all likelihood sent the SP soaring, but I feel like some people are getting carried away a little bit.

I love Tesla and am about as invested in TSLA as anyone, but let's all stay grounded in reality, and do our bests to be unbiased.

 

[SO16]

Maybe I'm just in a whining mood today, but tell me again why we allow all this self-promoting nonsense here? Since when is posting dbag drivel about yourself on-topic?

Full potential? Lol! At what? Guess/Gambling on stock options?

Is the goal here to drive Trend Trader away?

I hope not. I find his posts interesting. He probably wouldn’t have written what he did until he was asked. So then we get mad/jealous when he responds?

Who are we to judge him? If he’s happy and reaching his goals, great for him. I’m just glad he’s pro Tesla. That helps us all.

 

[jerry33]

Yes, following the productions and watching the demands!
You've only counted ~1.5M in 2022 for the 2 M-ish total. It seems 1.7M is more realistic by adding ~200k Y from Texas. There was a rumor that Texas will start with a general assembly line for Y. It does make sense that Texas also produces Y as Fremont space is quite limited.
It will get very difficult, if not impossible, to grow production at 50% rate when the numbers get big. "Just" growing from 4M to 6M requires 4 new GFs in full production, with each GF takes 4+ years from the announcement to the full production. There are just too many risks in the macro, demands, etc. with such a long ramp-up time required.

We've heard this kind of doom and gloom prediction before. Those predictions didn't materialize in the past either.

 

[jerry33]

I truly hope you didn't take it personally. Your contributions to this community are important. I particularly want to single out your fantastic forecasting tool for the expected 'progress' of future TSLA share price. I think of it exactly in the way in which you lay it out, in a convenient easy-to-digest chart form. Kudos, and thank-you! Brava!

Regarding rumors of the Model S refresh a year ago, try thinking of it using this analogy*:

• Your 18-yr old daughter wants your advice. She has a new boyfriend, and:
  • they are deeply, madly in love with each other
    
  • they can't wait to get married and have a baby
• She's wondering which she should announce to the family first:
  • the Wedding Date, or
  • the Baby Shower?
• Now before submitting your answer, remember: you are the FATHER, not the GROOM!

Sometimes, a year plus or minus can make a big difference...

Cheers!

*DISCLAIMER: Dear Reader, If this analogy upsets you, please consider it in jest (not to be taken too seriously)

Depends on whether or not she's announcing it by phone or in person.

 

[lascavarian]

CNBC just had a Tesla bear on camera hyping a list of troubles in such a froth that they basically had to just shut him down. Primary was L Lopez recent article. Target of $87 for the stock. Almost comical in intensity.

 

[InDaClub]

Tesla's Cybertruck greets the masses in L.A. (Subscription Required)

The Petersen Automotive Museum in Los Angeles scored a coup to mark its reopening after a three-month shutdown. It's hosting the first public display of Tesla's Cybertruck since the dystopian-styled pickup made its infamous debut last fall.

The Cybertruck exhibit, set up front and center in the lobby, was originally scheduled to last through Friday, June 26, but it has proved so popular that the museum's website said the exhibit had been extended through Sunday, July 5.

 

[Boomer19]

CNBC just had a Tesla bear on camera hyping a list of troubles in such a froth that they basically had to just shut him down. Primary was L Lopez recent article. Target of $87 for the stock. Almost comical in intensity.

who was it?

 

[AlMc]

who was it?

. Perma bear Gordo.....Latest News

 

[Boomer19]

. Perma bear Gordo.....Latest News

oh jeezus, that clown?
they really never give up. you’d swear this guy makes more money from his paid tv trolling appearances than he ever has by putting his own money at risk investing

his only claim to fame is being the worst tesla analyst of all time. oh and leaving lehman bro’s under controversy for plagiarism of another analysts report.

let that sink in. (think of how large and a-hole you have to be in order to be let go from a company run by dick fuld)

 

[Artful Dodger]

can anyone tell me the likelihood we see the P&D numbers before market open Thursday? I believe qt 1 was AH Thursday, April 2, but this go-around markets are closed Friday for 4th of July weekend.

The 2020Q1 P&D Report report came out after-hrs on Apr 2nd. Here's the Googlechart:

Note also that the SP was dn over 8% intraday as doubts lingered about the timing and content of the report. A huge gift of shares to those who exploited the opportunity.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm aware, but you have to subtract a few thousand VINs that are of cars delivered in Q1. Does anyone know the highest VIN we saw in Q1?

VINs also don't exactly match production. Isn't actual production usually closer to 50% of VINs? If someone else has better information/data on this, that'd be very helpful.

I linked both of Troy's relevant tweet's in the OP in which I tagged you. He shows his work, I've simply used his latest estimates and my est'd G.M. to arrive at Model Y gross profit.

 

[Harrito]

More on battery materials:-

As I get deeper into this topic Tesla getting into mining seems to make more sense.

EDIT::

Interesting quote:-

"We need a company as innovative as Tesla in mining, we need a company as innovative as Tesla in chemical processing".

Looking at the bigger picture it would make even hell of a lot more sense for Elon to have at least one of his companies become the innovation machine in the mining business: Colonizing Mars, mining there and on the Moon.

 

[LJS22]

Plenty of good news, good timing for Tesla to pop this morning. Market is showing a nice early direction, NASDAQ being weighed down by Facebook, but I think today has potential once volume opens up

 

[Artful Dodger]

08:00 a.m. Whistle: Mon, 29 Jun 2020

• TSLA share price: $975.45 +$15.71 +1.64%
• NASDAQ Pre-market Vol: 63,052

Comment: Credit Suisse writes "there is no longer a short thesis"

Cheers!

 

[Twooz]

Should be an exciting week! Crossing my fingers for closing above $1K end of day Thursday