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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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https://twitter.com/Hagen/status/1278388302001909762

Not sure if this news but apparently Giga Berlin production is shooting for the beginning of 2021 now instead of mid 2021. The website got updated at some point with beginning of 2021, used to be mid 2021

Late to the party - but I think this does not mean GF4 will be ready that early. More likely they´ll have enough production capacity for Y at Fremont with the GA in a new tent that they can ship to Europe. Web site only says production is supposed to start early 2021, but not where production will be (I know, Elon said Y will only will come from GF4 to Europe, but that wouldn´t be the first time he changed his mind). While GF4 construction is well on its way, I have not heard about anything pointing to it being done in half a year from now instead of one year.
 
While TSLA has just hit $1,300, Amazon has just hit $3,000!

I was lucky enough to have bought TSLA, AMZN, SQ and PTON in the late Feb/early March dip. Since then it isn't only TSLA that has more than tripled in value, Square and Peloton have too, while Amazon has nearly doubled which is incredible for such a mature company.

Now this is an important point. It seems like TSLA is rising not because of its individual results but because it is seen as a company of the future. And the Coronavirus situation is going to act as a catalyst to bring on the future more quickly than before by bankrupting late cycle companies who are loaded up with debt and make thin margins.

TSLA is the automaker of the future, SQ the bank of the future, PTON the gym of the future. It partly explains the furore over NKLA when that really is smoke and mirrors, investors are betting on anything that looks like the future.

Now, I can see a good and a bad around this. The good is that I don't even think the new Tesla battery tech or any utility or self-driving advancements are baked into the TSLA share increase, the bad is that I am not sure that anything is baked in and the share price will become as overblown in the next month or so as it was under-priced a year ago. This mini-macro of the "future" is going to blow up even further. I don't know by how much or when, but if we also take S&P inclusion into account, then TSLA may still have another 100% to run (to around $3,000 per share) before the bubble bursts and then you will then see a 50-70% drop back down to perhaps $1,000-$1,500 per share.

TSLA is obviously a fantastic long term bet, but over the next month or so I think there is going to be a great opportunity to make a quick buck while still being well positioned for the long term!

It’s so uplifting when people have to turn a good thing into a not so good thing. Always looking for the disaster to hit. The negative spin.

You know, sometimes it’s really just as good as it looks.