Alphacrux
Member
Doesn't the 'x' in 30x stainless steel refer to the last digit of the specific type of stainless? 301, 302, 304, 309, etc? and not the number of times it is rolled? Unless I read your post wrong..
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Doesn't the 'x' in 30x stainless steel refer to the last digit of the specific type of stainless? 301, 302, 304, 309, etc? and not the number of times it is rolled? Unless I read your post wrong..
Krugerrand
Meow
Okay, I was trying not to go down this rabbit hole but it’s apparently necessary.
This will not work. They have to trial from HIGH volume production material. Trialing from LOW volume production material will yield different results, in some cases hugely different results.
The recipe for a small batch of material is DIFFERENT than the recipe for a large batch of material. This is not double the recipe to make 4 dozen cookies instead of 2 dozen.
Part of these recipes beyond the actual elements is heating temperature, heating time, cooling time, funnel size and shape, distance to drop the molten metal, flow cadence, and on and on and on. It’s complicated, it’s intricate, it’s an art form. These recipes take as long as years to perfect.
And no, you can’t order from different suppliers. The recipes will vary even when starting with the same material parameters and thus the end result will be different causing variations in strength, formability etc...
Everyone can start with the same amount of eggs, flour, sugar but each batch of cookies will vary. Oven temperature varies, time cooking varies, the cookie sheet varies, was the dough worked by hand or with a beater, the amount of dough used to make the cookie. Try it. And now complex that times 100 for making steels.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
We went through this entire dividend debate a year ago. People are still confusing *not paying a dividend* with *no dividend can or will be paid, EVER*.
Gold and silver have intrinsic value e,g.useful to make jewellery. Short of a corporate buyout, a share certificate has no intrinsic value. All you can do is frame it and wall mount it - not really worth $1500. Its value is its promise of future reward (dividend), even if that point is more than a decade away.
Krugerrand
Meow
Yes, but Elon also specifically said at one point they’d rolled the SS 30xs to get it bulletproof. That sounds right. I don’t recall them specifying which SS they started with but logically it has to be a lower one because as I said before 311 & 316 right off the bat is too hard to form for the body panels.
Weekend is coming to a close, so this will be my last comment on dividends, happy to continue if you wish to start a new thread.
A stock's value is what you can sell it for at that moment. Nothing more, nothing less.
The promise of a future reward, has no affect on the value. Especially since the "promise of a future reward" is more nebulous than the fiat currency our economic system is based on.
Also, if a company might pay a dividend in a "billion years" (as stated by another poster) or even 50 years, that does NOTHING to add to the value I attribute to the stock today, as that is past my lifespan.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Yes, but no right thinking person would attribute any value to a share that had no conduit (the concept of dividend) to reward its owner.
The other conduit is during corporate buyout. I would not own TSLA if that were the only conduit, as I do not wish to see the company broken up or sold.
mblakele
FSD Beta (99)
This might help: seems to be a custom alloy.
But does “creating” = manufacturing at scale?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
"30x" does not mean it was rolled 30 times - it's a reference to the alloy belonging to the 30x series of SS. This is a reference to the composition of the alloy and not anything to do with the cold-rolling process.
It's possible Tesla makes it themselves but I suspect Tesla will just work with a supplier and order it. I don't expect it will need special equipment to form it since it will probably have properties in between those of existing alloys. Sure, more volume of business means suppliers will need to expand if they are already at capacity. Without a deeper look, that is not a given. Depending upon the business cycle they could have enough capacity. Or not. This is how businesses grow, by taking on new customers. Either way (purchased or vertically integrated), it's a given that Tesla already has the ball rolling.
The Cybertruck will not be made of 304 SS and I thought you knew that. So it's not clear why you are attributing those qualities to the Cybertruck. The initial Deloreans were made out of 304 SS (only 0.8mm thick) and it wasn't cold rolled so it required frequent polishing. That's why Delorean switched production to 316 SS. Don't think those lessons are lost on Tesla, that's probably one reason they are developing their own alloy.
We know Tesla is not using any existing alloy because they all have at least one disadvantage or another that prevents them from being ideally suited. That is precisely why they are developing a proprietary alloy! Also, the cold rolling process of any 30x series SS tightens up the metal's grain structure which makes the surface harder and more corrosion resistant. At 3mm thick (wow!) this treatment will extend well below the surface of the metal so simple polishing will not remove it. None of us know the exact alloy that will be used but my money says it will be very good in the corrosion department and it won't be turning brown easily or quickly.
And, yes, 316 SS could be formed into Cybertruck shapes because those shapes are less demanding than the compound curves present on the Delorean bodywork (which used this precise alloy). But it's a moot point because we know the CT will not be made out of any existing SS alloys!
Sheesh! I never said they won't have to give advance notice if they will be relying on an outside foundry! That's a given whenever you work with a supplier to deliver a custom product.
On that we agree! And as someone who is anxiously waiting on on at least one Cybertruck, I hope the delivery is somewhat in line with the announced timeline. But I have mentally added in another year for delays to avoid being emotionally crushed when it's late! But it probably won't be because they couldn't get the metal in time. The difficulty of this project goes far beyond that - it's likely not even at the top of their list of concerns.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Not necessarily. In this context, "create" means "develop and validate".
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StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Yes, aluminum casting. And we don't know what else. Certainly they won't be doing volume production of the cold rolled SS there but they might be developing and validating it there.
While I love the idea of vertical integration I've always suspected they will farm out the manufacture of the rolls of SS.
I think the question of whether or not Tesla is going to pay dividends ever is getting a bit ahead of itself. We're in the middle of a pandemic, the beginning of autonomous driving, the late stage of a super debt cycle, the rise of populism again which is splitting the country in half. Hell, I don't know if anyone can tell with a straight face what we're gonna look like 5 years, much less, 20 or 30 years, at which point they expect to see Tesla pay a dividends. For all I know, we might see a new paradigm in which something else replaces dividends as a way to return capital to investors. For now, let's just agree that Tesla is the best vehicle to carry us through this storm. That, to me, is more valuable than the prospect of receiving dividends.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Tesla Cybertruck's steel body can be heated to get different colors - Electrek
Elon is saying it is possible not that colors will be offered.
Elon is saying it is possible not that colors will be offered.
But surely Tesla would have been aware of these issues before the reveal because SpaceX is using the same SS?
So there is a plan, whoever is making batches has to be able to make the same stuff each time within tolerance...
Vehicle production machinery has some tolerance, some adjust-ability and some fail-safe mechanisms, and it takes sometime to set up and test the machinery... Again I'm sure there is an intended schedule and a plan, not that it will necessarily go smoothly. But the intention should be to have raw materials arrive in time to test the machinery..
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CyberDutchie
Active Member
I see some members are feeling a bit down due the stock price action...here is something to cheer you up
Freight Train Arriving ……. Demolishing the Bear Thesis
The naysayers may downplay S&P Inclusion (“it won’t have a lasting effect”) and poo-poo Battery Day (“remember Autonomy Day?”) but there is one coming event that they are sweating…..Q3 Results !!
Here are the headlines we will see in October:
- Tesla Delivers 145,000 Vehicles; 50% Increase over Prior Year
- Tesla Delivers Record Earnings of $490m GAAP Profits ($736m non-GAAP)
- Tesla Reports Record Sales $8.3 Billion
- Tesla Achieves GAAP Profit excluding Regulatory Credits
- Impressive Operating Leverage as Tesla Delivers Operating Profit Growth of 188%
See Q3 financial projections in these 2 posts"
Near-future quarterly financial projections
Near-future quarterly financial projections
To play devil's advocate: why do you believe market action after a great Q3 ER be different than what we say last week?
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
The positive market reaction might happen before the Q3 financials are released, just like this quarter!
One other difference is Q3 will likely be record breaking numbers on ALL fronts. The Coronavirus induced factory shutdown for half the quarter kind of stepped in to make sure that didn't happen in Q2.
To be frank, I think investors will be slowly coming to the realization (any day now) that Q2 was pretty incredible considering Fremont was shut down for almost half the quarter.
The share price doubled between Q1 earnings and Q2 earnings. I'd venture to say if the share price doubles again between Q2 and Q3 earnings, you're going to see the same kind of sell off.
I'm pretty amazed at people being disappointed about a 10% sell off after a 100% gain in 3 months......and this coming from someone who uber bullish on where the stock is gonna be at the end of the year
(Not saying you're saying you're disappointed or complaining about the share price action)
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I give you... "SPOILERCEPTION!"
Mike Smith
Active Member
You can't just look at the few days before or after the ER to judge how the market reacted to earnings. The SP was up around 100% in Q2. If the Accountants early Q3 projections are close to the actual numbers I think it's safe to say the SP will be up significantly from here.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
The share price doubled between Q1 earnings and Q2 earnings. I'd venture to say if the share price doubles again between Q2 and Q3 earnings, you're going to see the same kind of sell off.
I'm pretty amazed at people being disappointed about a 10% sell off after a 100% gain in 3 months......and this coming from someone who uber bullish on where the stock is gonna be at the end of the year
Not disappointed, just puzzled about the market reaction. I think most people didn't expect this, especially after several analyst firms upgraded the next day.
That's fair, a week from now will bring more clarity.
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