Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

Tesla compares accidents with crashes used by NHTSA. What is the difference?

I once received an email that was a list of things lawyers had said in court. The one I remember is where the lawyer asked the witness

"Just how close were those cars that were in that accident?"

 

[space_s3x]

Is the Model 3 LR's range different in England? It's 322 miles in the US, not 280 miles.
View attachment 570698

FullyCharged do not use official numbers; they use the "real-world" range numbers from EV Database which collects and composites data from drivers.

 

[Todd Burch]

It's 348 in the UK. I should know. I've got one on order

Yeah, but that’s 348 British miles.

 

[lazybot]

FullyCharged do not use official numbers; they use the "real-world" range numbers from EV Database which collects and composites data from drivers.

The fine print for Polestar 2.
This electric vehicle is not available yet
All specifications on this page with a * are still estimates.

 

[Krugerrand]

It feels like the SP is being pinned down to keep it at 1,500 rather than held up. If it stays near 1,500 tomorrow, which is what I expect, I am going to add to my calls expiring Oct-Dec and add some weeklies for next week. Normally I sell OTM puts and calls and I have mostly puts expiring tomorrow, but I’m not selling any. Alls for next week. This 1,500 daily pin seems fabricated. It is likely due to a pending S&P inclusion with secondary offering as we are all expecting. I expect a healthy rise once those are announced (maybe this weekend or early next week).

‘...as *we* are all expecting?’

All I’ve heard is a bunch of speculation about what might, could, maybe happen if, when, why. I’ve heard no, zip, zero, nada concrete evidence of anything.

So, no. I’m not expecting a secondary offering or even S&P inclusion. What I am expecting is that some day at some point in the future something will happen and those who speculated correctly will take a lap and a bow.

 

[smorgasbord]

CNBC really likes to post FUD for TSLA....Here is a headline for GM who just posted huge losses:

View attachment 570712
and here is one for TSLA:

View attachment 570713

Really cant stand seeking alpha....so much FUD even when its evident TSLA is revolutionizing everything

Actually, the short-seller article on TSLA made my day:

Given the vehicle sales and profit of Tesla versus the other three carmakers mentioned above, the market appears to have erred materially in its over-estimation of Tesla versus an under-estimation of the three. This deduction would seem all the more conclusive when considering the shift in regulatory credit income, away from Tesla to the others. Despite my painful losses in my short position in Tesla, the conclusion I made has steeled my resolve to maintain my Tesla short. It's only a matter of time until the market realizes the extent of its Tesla exuberance.

Sell!

If he thinks he's hurting now, imagine what the S&P 500 pop will do to his position.

 

[OrthoSurg]

TSLA feels like a racehorse in the starting gate waiting to run. The forces keeping it at 1500 are currently keeping the gate closed.

There is going to be a take off to $2300

I was expecting in 2023 but it might be sooner

 

[Krugerrand]

Although Rob admits he is not a professional auto reviewer there are some glaring mistakes in the comparison to Model 3. Polestar 2 used in the review seems to have the performance package which has the 20 inch wheels and upgraded suspension and brakes. Whereas the Model 3 AWD he has, if I recall correctly has the default 18 inch wheels. I think this is the main reason that makes him say he is able to take a specific corner during his test drive much faster in the Polestar, than he could with his Model 3. Also when comparing the Model 3 AWD range (280 stated vs 322 actual) and 0-60 times (4.6 stated vs 4.4 actual) Model 3 specs seem to have been lowered to make it seem like it is a much closer comparison to the Polestar 2 than it is in reality. There is no way he would not have known that his Model 3 has a range greater than 300 miles. Also he did not mention the headroom in the second row and the hump in the floor for the Polestar 2 which make the second row not very comfortable for tall adults. Overall it seemed like a feel good review more than any thing else.

Besides, he lost me when speaking about the beauty of the car. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, of course. But my eye says Model 3 is in a much higher class beauty pageant than that thing, inside and out.

 

[vikings123]

‘...as *we* are all expecting?’

All I’ve heard is a bunch of speculation about what might, could, maybe happen if, when, why. I’ve heard no, zip, zero, nada concrete evidence of anything.

So, no. I’m not expecting a secondary offering or even S&P inclusion. What I am expecting is that some day at some point in the future something will happen and those who speculated correctly will take a lap and a bow.

I’m glad somebody said it. I just don’t see the connection either. Given that short interest has gone down plus the impending S&P news on the horizon the stock is just trading in a range.

Lot of us have way too much knowledge about TSLA and that sometimes leads to analysis paralysis. Guess what there are other stocks that are going parabolic and are better for trading. Traders do not want to front run this thing. They do their technical analysis and wait for confirmation. Even the hedge funds who want to front run this are probably just waiting to see how this plays out.

I expect a move for TSLA tomorrow and then if macros continue to be good we should see more accumulation next week. I also expect republicans to play nice and come to an agreement with the democrats before the weekend or early next week. There’s just too much to lose for Trump if they cannot come to an agreement.

 

[ZsoZso]

NKLA down 57% over the last month. Is that why I'm not hearing so much from their investors about how it's the next best thing?

I hear TSLAQ was "hedging" their TSLA shorts by going long on NKLA

 

[Tim S]

Tesla compares accidents with crashes used by NHTSA. What is the difference?

We use those words interchangeably in the US. They both mean the same to us.

 

[BornToFly]

I will be shocked if the actual EPA range of the Polestar 2 is over 250 miles. With no charging network, in the US it will sell worse than the E-tron.

 

[MP3Mike]

Given that short interest has gone down plus the impending S&P news on the horizon the stock is just trading in a range.

It depends how you measure it. Actual short interest has gone up in terms of dollars at risk. It used to stay at ~$10B with the share count going up and down with the stock price to keep it at that level, now it is over $17B.

 

[Anubis]

Could require an additional 25 million shares be purchased. At 1500, that’s 40 billion in Capitol. Maybe they bank 30 billion of it as available cash and start up a couple more giga factories. That scenario lands the stock price around 1780 when the dust settles. Seems logical to me...

Tesla don’t get any of that capital, unless they create an extra 25 million shares, and then it actually waters down the value of the rest of (our) shares.

 

[Gwgan]

Spoiler: OT accident crash

We use those words interchangeably in the US. They both mean the same to us.

Some years ago medicine parlance changed from MVA to MVC to avoid the implication that somebody was at fault and caused an Accident and to help focus attention on the mechanism of the Crash and its implication for injury. The crash is one part of an accident. Lawyers may make a similar distinction but I suppose they would focus on other aspects of the Accident.

 

[MC3OZ]

In the latest Now You Know video they make some interesting comments about the Tesla / Rivian Lawsuit.

If the claims Tesla are apparently making are in anyway true, this may end badly for Rivian.

Personally I have zero sympathy for anyone engaged in IP theft, so I am 100% happy for Tesla to extract the maximum penalty... assuming the claims are substantiated... In some ways this is Tesla taking Amazon money which will appeal to Elon.

I haven't got time now, but it seems that this is a substantial issue, that perhaps deserves its own thread.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After-action Report: Thu, Jul 30, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "Another Low Vol Day as Market Awaits News"

Traded: $11,374,627,698.61 ($11.37 B)
Volume: 7,620,847
VWAP: $1,492.57

Closing SP / VWAP: 99.67%
(TSLA closed BELOW today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $277.212B / $167.265B = 165.73%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $263.16B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $160.55B
Nota Bene: 2nd tranche of 2018 CEO comp. plan vested as of 2020/07/24

'Short' Report:

FINRA Short/Total Volume = 37.6% (42nd Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 54.4% (55th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 1.34% of Short Volume (52nd Percentile Rank)​

Comment: "QQQ up +1.88% After-hrs on AAPL(+6.4%), AMZN(+5.0%) earnings "

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!

 

[smorgasbord]

I will be shocked if the actual EPA range of the Polestar 2 is over 250 miles. With no charging network, in the US it will sell worse than the E-tron.

According to Polestar 2 electric car review: we drive the Tesla Model 3 rival in the UK, the Polestar 2's WLTP combined range is 292 miles.

According to Tesla Model 3 review | Autocar, the Model 3 LR's WLTP combined range is 348 miles

Both UK publications.

 

[Beltsbear]

Tesla don’t get any of that capital, unless they create an extra 25 million shares, and then it actually waters down the value of the rest of (our) shares.

I don’t think Tesla will do an offering , but an offering does not dilute the value of our stock. It will only reduce our ownership percentage, but it increases the total value. After an offering, our stock now has Partial ownership of the billions of dollars added to the balance sheet.

 

[scaesare]

New Tesla Vehicule Safety Report released for 2020Q2:


Compared to 2020Q1:

Man, nearly a 10:1 ratio compared to general accident rate...