Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johann Koeber]

Something's up:

Just got an Tesla survey email. They are inquiring if I want a TESLA energy provider contract. They would deliver the electricity using solar, powerwall etc and I only pay per use.

Looks they are preparing to become a utility in Germany.

Or they are just doing a survey ..

 

[StealthP3D]

Don’t forget that these companies currently have fairly low valuations, because of Tesla, decarbonisation, bad strategic decisions, and other bad things that have caused investors to stop believing in a rosy future for these companies. Instead, add up the valuations of these companies at a time in the past when the sky was their limit. That’s the potential valuation of Tesla, which is currently going towards it’s ‘sky is the limit’ period.

Exactly! My jaw always drops when someone compares the value of TSLA to the very companies that TSLA is eating for breakfast, lunch and dinner! Do they not stop to consider for a moment why the market is valuing those other companies so low?

I know, I know, it's just not fair!

 

[Paracelsus]

MarketWatch - 8 minutes ago: Why the S&P 500 may now be easier to beat and what this means for your investments

Excerpt:

Tesla would be the latest example of how inclusion in the S&P 500 weakens a company's stock performance

It would be ironic if Tesla's stock price peaks just as it joins the S&P 500.

While it isn't a certainty that Tesla (TSLA) will become part of the U.S. benchmark stock index, there is widespread speculation that it will happen.

As my MarketWatch colleague Andrea Riquier recently pointed out (Tesla shares have surged on hope of inclusion in the S&P 500. But does being added to an index help a stock?), a new academic study has found that, beginning around a decade ago, getting added to the S&P 500 causes a stock to drop.

"The positive announcement effect on the stock price of index inclusion has disappeared and the long-run impact of index inclusion has become negative," this new study's authors report (Does Joining the S&P 500 Index Hurt Firms?).

@Curt Renz - this seems like a reasonable 'blanket' analogy for the S&P 500 as a whole, but how does it address the issues unique to TSLA's inclusion.......particularly the % of the Float that will soon not be available for Shorts once index funds accumulate? It would be interesting to know how the stocks that were included in that study ranked among the list of 'most shorted stocks' that are publicly traded.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Global Top 20 June 2020 sales are online:

"With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September."

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@Todesbuckler, thanks for your post and the link to Global EV Sales. This metric is the new world order for EVs, soon to be new world order for all autos. Tesla's Model Y is expected to sell more than Model 3, so expect the 19% overal EV market share to go up between 25% - 30% and stay in this range with for the forseeable future with onset of Model Y ramp up, Cybertruck and smaller World Car. Ten years out I can see Tesla having 25% - 30% of all auto sales World wide. And auto manfacturing is just one of Tesla's many tentacles.

This battle for SP at $1,500 is irrelevant. Too many of us are getting fixated on a random access point. There is so much good news to look forward to including Battery Day, potential for S&P inclusion, Q3 results, Q4 results, Shanghai Model Y factory opening, progress with Giga Berlin and Giga Lone Star, Solar Roofs, Battery Storage... For short term Traders the current SP is relevant, not to Buy and Hold Investors. The trend over time continues and remains upwards. The future is bright.

 

[Garlands]

Is Elon on air somewhere first squwak just posted this on twitter but I can't find where he said this

https://twitter.com/FirstSquawk/status/1289220780866154496?s=19

interview here:
DAILY DRIVE PODCAST: July 31, 2020 | Elon Musk one-on-one exclusive: Tesla is 'finally legit' (Part 1)

 

[vikings123]

what was the ticker that someone posted that got in to the S&P100 or something and was up 24% in a day?

PRK

 

[chronopublish]

I'd be really disappointed if Tesla raises funds before SP 500 inclusion. If the SP 500 index board makes fund raising a condition, then I'd prefer Tesla to ignore that, and skip this opportunity. The longer Tesla grows while not being included, the bigger the mismatch will become, and the big players (should I say Shorts enablers?) will have to pay big bucks to get an entry ticket. Screw Wall Street, they never cared about the mission anyway.

Tesla will reason from first principles. Either they conclude that raising money will accelerate the mission or they won't. I trust that whichever decision they make will be what's best for Tesla, regardless of what Wall Street wants.

 

[smorgasbord]

No Intel was being guarded because they still print lots of money because the datacenter is like ice buyers. It takes awhile to turn around the ship even when there are products better out on the market. Also just like legacy, people think they will eventually spend their way out of their current slump.

Kind of OT, but Intel's business model became antiquated with ARM. The big thing about ARM, IMO, wasn't the chip architecture as much as it was the license business model. That enabled companies like Apple to take an ARM design further and customize for their specific purposes, and companies like Samsung to produce chips cheaply at scale. Intel's business model was "we design and build the chips - you buy them," and when they were basically the only game in town (AMD copycat notwithstanding) that was a good model for them.

Many people still think it was ARM's power/cooling requirements that won. Yes, that was an early advantage, but at least 5 years ago, if not more, Intel's chips for mobile were as good at running at low power, low heat - but by that time the customization and fab independence offered by ARM was too compelling to get people to switch back.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

youtube interview with a fairly big TSLA investor, just watched it, in a rush, sorry if posted before., some very interesting commentary i thought: (esp regarding the shorts)

 

[Nocturnal]

Something's up:

Just got an Tesla survey email. They are inquiring if I want a TESLA energy provider contract. They would deliver the electricity using solar, powerwall etc and I only pay per use.

Looks they are preparing to become a utility in Germany.

Or they are just doing a survey ..

View attachment 570968

Might that just be the rental option like they have in the States?

@Curt Renz - this seems like a reasonable 'blanket' analogy for the S&P 500 as a whole, but how does it address the issues unique to TSLA's inclusion.......particularly the % of the Float that will soon not be available for Shorts once index funds accumulate? It would be interesting to know how the stocks that were included in that study ranked among the list of 'most shorted stocks' that are publicly traded.

I also suspect that stocks have tended to drop recently because of the (irrational?) excitement of inclusion, or a company squeezing every drop out of profit to get over the finish line and then retrenching for some time. That may or may not be the case with Tesla. Far too many variables to make any of that data meaningful.

 

[capster]

May I suggest Tesla does a stock offering to satisfy the S&P committee and then disperses the proceeds, which it has no use for, as dividend to stock holders. That should end two lingering TMC discussions.

Hmmm, a forced reduction in the already minuscule percentage of the company I own along with a taxable event? I’ll pass thanks.

 

[Curt Renz]

@Curt Renz - this seems like a reasonable 'blanket' analogy for the S&P 500 as a whole, but how does it address the issues unique to TSLA's inclusion.......particularly the % of the Float that will soon not be available for Shorts once index funds accumulate? It would be interesting to know how the stocks that were included in that study ranked among the list of 'most shorted stocks' that are publicly traded.

Indeed, that's a huge factor not being considered by the study. Perhaps even more significant is the fact that the governance and innovative outlook of Tesla is far different from that of a typical S&P 500 company. The central thesis of the study is that the managements of new entries in the S&P 500 soon start mimicking the behaviors of other S&P 500 executives. Elon and his team would not be likely to suddenly start doing that.

 

[Knightshade]

@Curt Renz - this seems like a reasonable 'blanket' analogy for the S&P 500 as a whole, but how does it address the issues unique to TSLA's inclusion.......particularly the % of the Float that will soon not be available for Shorts once index funds accumulate? It would be interesting to know how the stocks that were included in that study ranked among the list of 'most shorted stocks' that are publicly traded.

Index funds happily lend their shares- so they'll still be available for shorts.

Further, only about 18% of float MUST be bought by the funds, and total short interest is like 7.5% from Ihors last post... (and a fair bit of that 7.5 is gonna be delta hedging of options, not TSLAQ short behavior)

This isn't a VW short squeeze situation where overnight there's significantly fewer floated shares than open short interest or something. There's still plenty of shares, even if the price might go a bit higher by some of em being bought by funds.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Something's up:

Just got an Tesla survey email. They are inquiring if I want a TESLA energy provider contract. They would deliver the electricity using solar, powerwall etc and I only pay per use.

Looks they are preparing to become a utility in Germany.

Or they are just doing a survey ..

View attachment 570968

Octopus are launching in Germany and Octopus have a Tesla tariff in UK. Octopus mentioned Germany and Australia (not Austria) as next countries.

 

[jerry33]

Indeed, that's a huge factor not being considered by the study. Perhaps even more significant is the fact that the governance and innovative outlook of Tesla is far different from that of a typical S&P 500 company. The central thesis of the study is that the managements of new entries in the S&P 500 soon start mimicking the behaviors of other S&P 500 executives. Elon and his team would not be likely to suddenly start doing that.

Most executives are professional executives. They have little knowledge or interest in what the company actually does. They have great interest in their compensation and golden parachutes.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Stock valuation is a matter of human perception. Yes, the numbers matter but those numbers are put into context by humans with all our bias and subjectivity. Some people actually believe the narrative that Elon is a charlatan, a showman, a snake-oil salesman. Bringing the astronauts home safely in Crew Dragon helps demonstrate how amazing of a leader that he really is. A man who can make difficult things happen.

You have never seen Mary Barra, Lee Iacocca, Bob Lutz, Jim Hackett, et. al. putting astronauts in Space or anything remotely as challenging! A CEO can never have too many feathers in their cap! Go Crew Dragon!

Was it my comment you were intending to reply to?

 

[Tslynk67]

PRK

Good job, I was about to post $OHFFS

 

[StealthP3D]

Was it my comment you were intending to reply to?

Ha! No! Sorry about that - it's beyond the editing window.

 

[tinm]

interview here:
DAILY DRIVE PODCAST: July 31, 2020 | Elon Musk one-on-one exclusive: Tesla is 'finally legit' (Part 1)

Wait, Elon, who's very jolly in this interview, says there were 5 people working at Tesla in 2014, to 60,000 people working at Tesla in 2020?

Maybe too jolly?

 

[StealthP3D]

Wait, Elon, who's very jolly in this interview, says there were 5 people working at Tesla in 2014, to 60,000 people working at Tesla in 2020?

Maybe too jolly?

What do you mean?