Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

Or maybe Elon just overhypes how amazing everything is?

Remember how enhanced summon went from MIND BLOWING to "it almost doesn't suck"? as they were almost a full year late delivering it?


Or, to be more fair-maybe he has a deeper understanding of the engineering and the impact it'll have to future Tesla efforts- so it's mind blowing to HIM but not so much to the famous Mr. Market we all talk about who doesn't know WTF an anode is he just knows "amazing batteries in our $140,000 car, off this tiny prototype line.... and coming later in stuff not yet on the road and built in the factories that aren't done yet in germany and texas" isn't TODAY EXCITING stock news.

I think battery day will give analyst some color in the infamous 50% yoy growth Elon guided for. Autonomous day couldn't really do this. In house battery production is another way to reduce cost, especially with a manufacturing break throughs. Elon will probably share information not only on batteries but all the manufacturing breakthroughs they have been working on including how gigafactories are being built in record time, the cost difference between the factors, expected car output after giga press and a reduction by a factor of 10 in complexity..etc etc. Recent execution at least give this part of Tesla a lot of credibility vs autonomy.

 

[neezer]

This Ben Sullins' first impression review of the Lucid Air. Overall, it's mostly positive. He likes the tech but not so much the interior or exterior.

He also really loves Peter Rawlinson.

Does Ben realize what Elon recently tweeted about Rawlinson?

 

[killianss]

So again- cool from a geek engineering perspective, but a non-event in a very similar way to autonomy day in that it's mostly great news about stuff that won't actually be in public hands for a while (apart from plaid)

Cool geek engineering perspective that MM snubs on will make us wealthy
Never bet against uncle Elon. I panicked sold my shares in March only to got back in at much higher price.

 

[smorgasbord]

I know this tweet is a week old, but for those that still think Rob didn't destroy GJ in his interview, just look at this one snippet:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1301626904445964288

 

[anthonyj]

I’m VERY confident that this will be the case next week. Will write some puts for the smooth brains

 

[Artful Dodger]

In cheerier news, NKLA is getting dat azz spanked again today:

NASDAQ: NKLA
31.65 USD −5.92 (15.76%)
Sep. 11, 1:36 p.m. EDT​

Now, where is that damn 'Uptick Rule' when you need it?

/S

 

[Nocturnal]

At this point if we don't get a leaked email telling employees to push hard to make it a record quarter I'm going to consider that extremely bullish.

In cheerier news, NKLA is getting dat azz spanked again today:

NASDAQ: NKLA
31.65 USD −5.92 (15.76%)
Sep. 11, 1:36 p.m. EDT​

Now, where is that damn 'Uptick Rule' when you need it?

/S

My NKLA puts are the only thing keeping my trading account from bleeding out today.

 

[Green Pete]

For whoever mentioned KCAC before I just realized their Market cap is 0.5B. If it turns out to be the real deal that company has a ton of room to run on valuation.

Is there a thread somewhere for non tesla investment stuff? I swear there used to be.

 

[jhm]

I'm not predicting where Tesla will end up. Your scenario is theoretically possible. (In my view, Tesla does not need robotaxis at all to reach $7,000).

Regarding the huge gap, their two major outcomes suggest this is exactly will happen. It's either very good success or the so-called "holy grail". Think of a pharma company that, among other things, searches for a cure for cancer where success in that one facet makes them 5-10x more valuable. Ark projects robotaxis to have a similar effect on TSLA.

Despite the "Expected Value = $7,000" box, the $7,000 value doesn't even exist on Ark's own chart below. It's a worthless amalgam created by multiplying outcomes x percentages and adding them together. It is not a scenario.

It may be more helpful if ARK described their scenario uncertainty in term of timing rather than amount. Specifically, the autonomous scenarios depend critically on the time to develop the tech. Autonomy by 2024 is a risky bet, but autonomy by 2027 or 2030 is much more likely. Indeed over a long enough horizon the essential risk to the autonomy scenario is simply that competitors will beat Tesla to autonomy buy a wide enough margin that Tesla never brings its own autonomy to market. That is, we want Tesla to be the first to scale up robotaxis and the like before the competition. It matters little when they do this so long as they are first.

There is certainly scope for Tesla to be sufficiently close to autonomy by 2024 that valuations in 2024 benefit from autonomy even if robotaxis are a few years from circulation.

I suppose within a year ARK will update these scenarios advancing them to 2025. The bear cases will likely move up in price points, while the autonomy scenarios will likely increase in likelihood. So we should keep our eyes on the rise in expect value from 2024 to 2025. These mean are important even if there is a substantial bifurcation of scenarios in 2024.

 

[Singuy]

People need to realize that the majority of retail investors doesn't do a lick of DD. It's all based on trends and hype. Someone heard it from uncle Jeremy so it's a buy buy buy. Anyone here got asked constantly about if Tesla is a good stock or not as it went parabolic? I had groups of people asking me. I hear people talking about it at Disney World's parking lot. I heard nurses and doctors talking about it in the lunch room. Not only that but I hear about Nikola and Nio as well, how they will be the next Tesla.

People are not informed AT all. They literally think a stock split as something Tesla decided to do to turn back time and grant these people another opportunity to 10X again by next year.

Is it their fault? Yea sure but most people have little idea about macroeconomics, taxes, or any of the policies touted by government officials they voted in for. This society is so ignorant it's laughable.

So yeah, it's not fun seeing people losing their savings to fraudulent companies or bit coin scams.

 

[Mo City]

It may be more helpful if ARK described their scenario uncertainty in term of timing rather than amount. Specifically, the autonomous scenarios depend critically on the time to develop the tech. Autonomy by 2024 is a risky bet, but autonomy by 2027 or 2030 is much more likely. Indeed over a long enough horizon the essential risk to the autonomy scenario is simply that competitors will beat Tesla to autonomy buy a wide enough margin that Tesla never brings its own autonomy to market. That is, we want Tesla to be the first to scale up robotaxis and the like before the competition. It matters little when they do this so long as they are first.

There is certainly scope for Tesla to be sufficiently close to autonomy by 2024 that valuations in 2024 benefit from autonomy even if robotaxis are a few years from circulation.

I suppose within a year ARK will update these scenarios advancing them to 2025. The bear cases will likely move up in price points, while the autonomy scenarios will likely increase in likelihood. So we should keep our eyes on the rise in expect value from 2024 to 2025. These mean are important even if there is a substantial bifurcation of scenarios in 2024.

I assume we should get their update on TSLA by the end of January. Agree their bear case forecast should increase, by a lot. IMO, nearly impossible to quantify the bull case because robotaxis would flip the world upside down.

 

[CyberDutchie]

It may be more helpful if ARK described their scenario uncertainty in term of timing rather than amount. Specifically, the autonomous scenarios depend critically on the time to develop the tech. Autonomy by 2024 is a risky bet, but autonomy by 2027 or 2030 is much more likely. Indeed over a long enough horizon the essential risk to the autonomy scenario is simply that competitors will beat Tesla to autonomy buy a wide enough margin that Tesla never brings its own autonomy to market. That is, we want Tesla to be the first to scale up robotaxis and the like before the competition. It matters little when they do this so long as they are first.

There is certainly scope for Tesla to be sufficiently close to autonomy by 2024 that valuations in 2024 benefit from autonomy even if robotaxis are a few years from circulation.

I suppose within a year ARK will update these scenarios advancing them to 2025. The bear cases will likely move up in price points, while the autonomy scenarios will likely increase in likelihood. So we should keep our eyes on the rise in expect value from 2024 to 2025. These mean are important even if there is a substantial bifurcation of scenarios in 2024.

I feel the ARK Invest $7000 (pre-split) price target for 2024 is too low. I just watched Zac & Jesse's latest video about 2025: The future of Tesla with IMO highly plausible predictions (they see FSD ready by 2025):

Jesse's forecast, which he himself calls conservative, for TSLA in 2025 (post-split) is:

Spoiler

$4000

 

[ggr]

For whoever mentioned KCAC before I just realized their Market cap is 0.5B. If it turns out to be the real deal that company has a ton of room to run on valuation.

Is there a thread somewhere for non tesla investment stuff? I swear there used to be.

What other tech stock to consider?

 

[jhm]

I assume we should get their update on TSLA by the end of January. Agree their bear case forecast should increase, by a lot. IMO, nearly impossible to quantify the bull case because robotaxis would flip the world upside down.

Indeed, autonomy is enormously disruptive. I suspect that part of the reason ARK would like to see Tesla start a ride sharing service is that is would start to fill in some of the details about the potential for robotaxis.

 

[Intl Professor]

Fewer tasks or teeth?

More tasks but lovingly many assisted by my wife. She won't let me cook anymore. "You shake too much—the knives, baby!"

 

[Intl Professor]

Not as of last Monday. Officially retired...again. 58 years old and still have some serious hiking to do. Went looking at tiny (and I mean tiny) camping trailers yesterday to pull behind the model 3. Undetermined how long I’ll be retired this time. .

Congrats.

 

[mickificki]

https://twitter.com/thirdworldtesla/status/1304439264395038721?s=21

 

[Yragorn]

I feel like jumping on the GIGA bandwagon lol

 

[Unpilot]

Is GIGA listed on the NYSE?

 

[lafrisbee]

This is something I am looking forward to. Current home hvac systems look so primitive -- one thermostat controlling the whole house. I want bluetooth temperature and humidity sensors in every room and one outside, control of individual vents, dampers, and windows, and a central piece of software that lets me vary the details. If all this isn't standard now that's because of inertia.

HVAC Octovalve!
24 yrs ago I had to do a paper about technology in relation to energy consumption within building management. The main jist of ALL the information I could gather was that employees would only have to carry a device no larger than a deck of cards (it turned out to be the size a cell phone is). And this device would somehow talk (bluetooth/wifi) a control center that would adjust HVAC and lighting specifically to where the employees would be and where they were expected to be, and what activity they were going to be doing. HVAC decisions could be set by each individual (within limits), and the control center would adjust temperatures based on your position, where you were expected to be, and what you would be doing.
My biggest example was if Bobby Bowden (a prominent head coach at FSU at the time) was scheduled to speak to the team in the Projection room after a mandatory team meeting had taken place an hour before the room would take the average of the assistant coaches desired temperatures and maintain the room at that temperature until Bobby Bowden started walking to the room. At that point it would go to the Bobby Bowden Default temperature...and as he walked to the room the lights in the hallways would come on in front of him and go off after he passed.
Why this hasn't been normalized is all Elon's fault. he needs to get to work!