In most applications the magic of geometric growth is fantasy/daydreaming. Other factors interfere.Indeed, it's happening, or else!
My projections show that if Tesla is able to reach 3 TWh annual production rate by 2030, then they can also reach 20 TWh/yr by 2038, at which point Tesla produces ALL the batteries that the world needs to transition to sustainable energy.
It's the magic of geometric growth with the machine that builds the machine: those battery factories will be tooled by another, higher layer of Tesla automatio, and Tesla will build a factory that builds battery factories. That means adding one more battery-building factory every year until we win, or the Earth has enough battery capacity.
I suspect this is what Elon means when he says 'Tera-factory'.
So for bty industry players, it's literally time to build out capacity at ludicrous speed or Tesla will eat your breakfast, lunch, dinner, then have you for a bed-time snack.
Battery day was both a roadmap and a cautionary tale for other auto- and bty-makers.
Cheers!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Yeah. It's great seeing so few O.T. posts here.
You have to be kidding. That is clearly the ABC cypher.Encrypt your prediction, then release the key post earnings if you were right.
I'll go first and use the XOR cypher
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Today was FP1 & 2 for F1, but both were abandoned due to inclement weather - not that the cars could't run, but rather that the medical helicopter could be assured...
WTF do they expect in Northern Europe in October?
To continue on the FSD thought train. Imo there are a lot of different questions that need to be considered. Let’s for a moment ignore the Robotaxi potential, just assume that in 2021Q1 Tesla releases software that can drive safer than average humans from A->B 90% of the time while requiring driver supervision.
1. What would be the cost of this package? $10k?
2. What would be the take rate of this package? 50%?
3. How many new customers would change their mind and decide to buy a Tesla instead of something else just because of this? +20%?
1+2 this would add 10% margin, with 1M cars delivered in 2021 that would be another $5B in profit, with a P/E of 50x that is $250B in market cap. If Tesla can do 2M cars in 2022, that is another $500B in market cap.
Conclusion: If Elon is right, this is pretty major and certainly not priced in. And this is something that we certainly should spend some time on discussing and analyzing in the near term...
What are your figures?
1. What would be the cost of this package? $10k?
2. What would be the take rate of this package? 50%?
3. How many new customers would change their mind and decide to buy a Tesla instead of something else just because of this? +20%?
1+2 this would add 10% margin, with 1M cars delivered in 2021 that would be another $5B in profit, with a P/E of 50x that is $250B in market cap. If Tesla can do 2M cars in 2022, that is another $500B in market cap.
Conclusion: If Elon is right, this is pretty major and certainly not priced in. And this is something that we certainly should spend some time on discussing and analyzing in the near term...
What are your figures?
gabeincal
Active Member
The Island Brokers Are Overwhelmed
“Calls and emails come in at all times of day and night.”
I thought everyone was just joking about the islands!
“Calls and emails come in at all times of day and night.”
I thought everyone was just joking about the islands!
The value of FSD is not really from selling it as an add on package. Sure that will make money but the value is Tesla running their own Taxi service. That is where you start talking about building a car for $40k and getting $3k a month profit from it.
AimStellar
Member
Not too shabby. You're only off by 40 cents.
Cheers!
Quick question, can someone smarter than me (extraordinarily low bar) explain / shed any light/insight on what these entries represent? If it helps, I exported these (via screenshot) from a "Time/Sales" log from today's TSLA trading. Thanks in advance for any help providing more color on what this depicts.
My total return is about 7000%, reduced by my more recent buys earlier this year. Your criticism is valid. All I can counter with is both myself and my wife are in the process of retiring from jobs that we both now hate. My wife wasn't planning on leaving just yet, but circumstances have overtaken us, and she is now leaving at end of year. The result of this will have a very positive effect on our mental wellbeing and life balance.
Also please understand where I am coming from, I'm from a lower middle class UK background. A household income of £55k is considered very good locally, and that is what we currently live on, that is before tax by the way! If not for my TSLA investment, I would most likely not have been able to afford even a Model 3! I know to a lot of you US guys, our standard of living is probably considered a joke, but to us, my TSLA holding is literally like winning the lottery, by our more modest standards.
So whilst the value of our TSLA investment is very significant by average UK standards of wealth, it now needs to support us entirely as we will have no other income. I've recently taken out a tranche of money to support us for a year or so, and plan to take out more towards the end of the year, to give us security for a little longer. What's left is staying invested for as long as possible. We intend to live frugally for a while whilst this grows to hopefully a far more significant figure. So whilst I probably should be driving a Tesla by now, sorry, but investing significantly in a depreciating asset isn't on the cards yet, even one as nice as a Model S.
If all goes well with the growth of our holdings, we intend to improve the world with philanthropy as well as expanding our lifestyle modestly, and I promise you all I will be buying at least a Model S, and if things go as I expect them to over the next few years, that may even become a Roadster purchase.
By the way, I am not alone, some of the biggest TSLA bulls out there, including significant Youtube influencers, do not currently own a Tesla car, so do forgive me for not feeling guilty about it.
I wish you achieve all of your goals.
All the best to you!
Oddly, other than in a concluding list of the analyst's auto stock ratings, there is no specific mention of Tesla. It's more about how legacy ICE manufacturers would be affected by a Democratic sweep.
Benzinga - 13 minutes ago: Analyst Predicts 'Initially Negative Reaction' In Auto Stocks If Democrats Sweep Election
Benzinga - 13 minutes ago: Analyst Predicts 'Initially Negative Reaction' In Auto Stocks If Democrats Sweep Election
So, this is a standard problem in cryptography. In fact there was (probably still is) a USENET newsgroup dedicated to posting future predictions in the late '80s. Anyway the answer is to post the cryptographic hash of the text of your prediction. The current NIST standard hash is SHA-3, and if you don't have code for it on your computer (I guess I'm unusual in this regard...) there are multiple web sites that will compute it for you. It is not thought to be possible to calculate any input that will produce a given hash output faster than trying a huge number of inputs. This is the one I would use: SHA Calculator - Tool Slick
For example: the 256-bit SHA-3 hash of "$434.00" (no trailing newline) is e68b0abdb56ee297589db02c41b6ad962f9152a56dbc0263fb82d8a040413b01.
This is a bad example though, because if I knew you were posting just a dollar figure, I just have to try a few thousand possible numbers. You should "salt" the hash with random-ish stuff, so what you would actually feed to the hash would be more like:
"My prediction for Oct 9 closing is $434.00, but who would have thought that Audie's dog would dominate the news?"
(5006736bbfdb0e76b94bce49bcfb8a0fec98b6c35fb3a81662b8b0885bebb599)
Mod: anyone posting hash outputs in this thread will be treated harshly. Use the predictions thread Prediction Thread - "You Called It" , or create a new thread, if you're serious. --ggr
Easiest maybe just publish your predictions encrypted with a key and then at a later date publish the key. If you need to timestamp your predictions you can by writing the encrypted message in a bitcoin/eth transaction.
@Troy 's model Y tracker shows FSD take rate at ~35%. Obviously that's at a lower price but much lower capability. I like to look at it by fixing one variable and estimating where the other will land.
What can Tesla charge and get 50% take rate for FSD? Based on current 35% (but probably biased upwards from real) at $8,000, I think Tesla could charge more than $10,000 if the rewrite is that impressive. Maybe close to $15,000?
In that light, Tesla doubling in value in a year would not be surprising.
gabeincal
Active Member
Why not have some sort of a survey or google form feeding a sheet that is not accessible until a certain day? Why overcomplicate this...?
gabeincal
Active Member
I think you’ll find that it is a LOT lower % for the general buyer out there. Folks who fill out his spreadsheet are tech savvy and likely also forum members. But it’s a bullish sign for sure - esp for this quarter’s earnings.
Re>> Yeah. It's great seeing so few O.T. posts here.
Time for Weekend OT — Some thoughts on the disappearing PR department discussed a few days back...
Re: this CNET quote from the article Tesla scraps whatever was left of its PR department - Roadshow "Tesla's PR department was light at best and only sparingly responded to media requests in the past year. Tesla responded to just one inquiry from Roadshow in the past six months."
So this change seemed to have happened between 6months to one year ago.
Buzzfeednews article quoted Elon answering in Dec 2019 - How Tesla CEO Elon Musk Won His "Pedo Guy" Trial : "Do you have a large number of public relations professionals who work for you? I have no PR team personally, and we don’t really have much of a public relations team at Tesla."
And same article quoted former employees : >> Others noted that Musk sometimes tweeted about unfinished features or plans that hadn't been shared, forcing fire drills to finish or manage them. “He tweets it, therefore it is,” a former staffer told one of my colleagues.
The three quotes make me wonder if PR was disbanded because first Elon said it publicly, then somebody made it so.
Time for Weekend OT — Some thoughts on the disappearing PR department discussed a few days back...
Re: this CNET quote from the article Tesla scraps whatever was left of its PR department - Roadshow "Tesla's PR department was light at best and only sparingly responded to media requests in the past year. Tesla responded to just one inquiry from Roadshow in the past six months."
So this change seemed to have happened between 6months to one year ago.
Buzzfeednews article quoted Elon answering in Dec 2019 - How Tesla CEO Elon Musk Won His "Pedo Guy" Trial : "Do you have a large number of public relations professionals who work for you? I have no PR team personally, and we don’t really have much of a public relations team at Tesla."
And same article quoted former employees : >> Others noted that Musk sometimes tweeted about unfinished features or plans that hadn't been shared, forcing fire drills to finish or manage them. “He tweets it, therefore it is,” a former staffer told one of my colleagues.
The three quotes make me wonder if PR was disbanded because first Elon said it publicly, then somebody made it so.
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