Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ameliorate]

It is so that any random spectator can have confidence that you are not changing the result before the reveal.

So this will validate your prediction in X amount of time if nobody knows your prediction until that day? I suspect your estimate will be in the ballpark hence my curiosity, Your calls in the past have already earned credibility in my book so I'm not entirely sure what this exercise is proving? If you legitimately think your opinion can move the market, why wouldn't you?

 

[Prunesquallor]

It isn’t FUD. SpaceX did ink a military contract to study delivering cargo worldwide within an hour.

U.S. Transportation Command to study use of SpaceX rockets to move cargo around the world - SpaceNews

They probably see Starlink as a bigger threat.

 

[Singuy]

PSA to all Robinhood users. There has been an increase in hackers liquidating people's account lately. They first hack your email, and use that to target Robinhood security. 2 point Authentication via SMS in Robinhood is not going to stop them. 2 Point Authentication using an app seems to do the trick. Also use 2 point authentication for your email just so they wouldn't break into the first line of defense.

 

[durkie]

PSA to all Robinhood users. There has been an increase in hackers liquidating people's account lately. They first hack your email, and use that to target Robinhood security. 2 point Authentication via SMS in Robinhood is not going to stop them. 2 Point Authentication using an app seems to do the trick. Also use 2 point authentication for your email just so they wouldn't break into the first line of defense.

This is good advice in general: 2 factor authentication based on you receiving a text message is far less secure than 2 factor with an app (or security key). If you have a choice, don't do the text message option.

Unfortunately lots of financial places are still bad at this.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

This is good advice in general: 2 factor authentication based on you receiving a text message is far less secure than 2 factor with an app (or security key). If you have a choice, don't do the text message option.

Unfortunately lots of financial places are still bad at this.

How do they get past the email notification? What app would be used for 2 factor ID?

 

[Green Pete]

How do they get past the email notification? What app would be used for 2 factor ID?

Two-Factor Authentication | Robinhood

Frankly I hate those apps. But yubikeys only work for some many things. Non-sms based mfa is a must in 2020

 

[Singuy]

How do they get past the email notification? What app would be used for 2 factor ID?

I downloaded the first app that popped up in the play store. Tested it and works

 

[lafrisbee]

Here is a week end topic about TSLA....
So Tesla buys Spodumene from a mine in NC and then refine it in TX. A whole lot of tons of Spodumene are going to need to be railroaded(?) to TX. From what I have gathered the spodumene in NC can be refined to yield about 1/8th Lithium compound by weight.
A refinery right next to the mine would reduce the freight charges by 7/8ths. So why not build the refinery at the mine? And then ship the finished product to the battery factories?

I don't know the answers but these are some of the options:
The cost to build and run a refinery in Texas is much less than one in NC.
NC has much stronger rules concerning what to do with the waste leftovers from refining.
Tesla sees Piedmont as a short term source so putting the refinery there means once the switch to another source would make the mine in NC a logistical complication($).
Tesla is building the refinery where it logistically makes sense concerning future sources of Lithium (Besides CO?).

Does someone have another?

 

[Causalien]

So this will validate your prediction in X amount of time if nobody knows your prediction until that day? I suspect your estimate will be in the ballpark hence my curiosity, Your calls in the past have already earned credibility in my book so I'm not entirely sure what this exercise is proving? If you legitimately think your opinion can move the market, why wouldn't you?

It's a secret.
At this stage of my life, stuffs I think about are no longer just for/about myself anymore.

 

[Causalien]

They probably see Starlink as a bigger threat.

Wouldn't it be great if they preannouce ipo of starlink, but the amount of shares you can buy is based on your tsla stocks times a multipler that is based on the amount of years you've held tsla stock.

This should cause a short squeeze, but we don't really have much shorts to squeeze anymore.

 

[steve3]

Two-Factor Authentication | Robinhood

Frankly I hate those apps. But yubikeys only work for some many things. Non-sms based mfa is a must in 2020

I just set up mfa on my Etrade account using the VIP Access app on iphone - double tapping the code in VIP Access clips it for easy paste in login screen, skips having to enter the 6 digits. Even got it to work with FaceID after a bit.

 

[Oveeus]

Tesla’s 4680 battery cell production facility is ramping its operations

• Tesla Semi packs were apparently going to come from GF Nevada (shipping 4680 cells from Fremont to Nevada is odd, but possible)

If you take into consideration how trucking business works, it actually makes a lot of sense on logistic.

GF1 in Nevada makes all the batteries Fremont needs for 3/Y... all those trucks or whatever cargo method that go from Nevada to Fremont need to transport something in the opposite direction. Of course Tesla is able to negotiate a deal somehow given the volume so that might not always be the case.

But that cost would decrease even further IF Tesla actually has stuff for all those trucks to carry BACK to Nevada. In that aspect, it'd make perfect sense for them to make 4680 in Fremont (Elon talked about having a better manufacturing line requiring less space, so maybe manufacturing space like Giga Nevada is no longer needed, or if such space exists, the output is much higher)

 

[SPadival]

Amazing. He can see the future but cannot spell *than*.

Obviously, you haven’t hear him speak. It would have been obvious that English isn’t his main language (I can’t understand a word.)

Pierre is a good man. Love how he supports charity & gets his 5 kids to pack food for the homeless.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Not really. Insurance products are indeed regulated at a state level rather than Federal but there are some rather definite criteria about how the income and expenses are conducted. Were ti possible to just commingle the manufacturing and distribution with the insurance there might be some version of 'lots of wiggle room'. Tesla, however, has very conservative income and expense recognition policies, including warranty reserves. Given the Tesla accounting approach they would never try to 'game' the system. Other OEMs, maybe, but not Tesla. @The Accountant might shed further light on this.

I haven't the foggiest idea what you're talking about. Whatever Tesla's accounting practices, they did tons of stuff on my 2014 Model S and called it goodwill and charged me nothing and made me a happy customer. I'm quite certain that the same sort of thing can happen with insurance, and Tesla, being the source of cars and parts, has lots of wiggle room on how and when those appear and what they cost. I don't believe that "regulation" will make that too difficult.

But perhaps I'm simply naive.

 

[Causalien]

On a slow day.....

I am going to abuse my powers as first, the namesake ‘owner’ of this thread but more implacably, as its Moderator, to place an entirely Off Topic post, immediately following this one. As I don’t countenance others doing the same, please indulge me by confining any responses to the “vote” choice - thank you.

How about a more defined separation between Pre-market to Market hours = On topic, Post market hours = off topics. Something we are already doing but not as clearly defined. This way, ppl who don't want to read the fluff can just skip the post market posts.

 

[kengchang]

Tesla’s 4680 battery cell production facility is ramping its operations

I did strongly suspect Elon and Drew were sandbagging, however you can't tell the production rate and yield rate of a factory, from the car park.

2 other interesting things we were told or that were rumored. (before Battery Day)

• Tesla Semi packs were apparently going to come from GF Nevada (shipping 4680 cells from Fremont to Nevada is odd, but possible)
• GF Nevada apparent had one line converted to a new higher density formula.

Prior to Battery Day I concluded this new line at GF Nevada was probably making cells for the Semi
But like most people I now think the Semi has new High Nickel 4680s...

Then we comes to an older rumor (news report in a Korean paper), Tesla buying battery formation equipment apparently for Fremont, Berlin, Shanghai and Nevada.

At the time I also thought that rumor was significant, but now we learn at Battery Day that Tesla has their own cell formation equipment.

My best guess now is this is a fluid and rapidly changing situation, even if we guess right and read the tea leaves correctly at a point in time, plans will change as soon as Tesla discovers a better option, or hits an issue.

So overall I've still got some niggling suspicion of sandbagging, or more accurately conservative estimates. If something goes wrong, that might just chew up a built in project buffer. Because this is all new, things can still go wrong/right and things can still change.

Having truck dropping off 2170 pack and motors then pick up 4680 cell/pack makes sense.

 

[CorneliusXX]

@gabeincal have you had a chance to fly over Kato road in the last couple of weeks? Any chance you could do a new video? would be interesting to see if there are any cells being moved.

 

[RobStark]

 

[mongo]

Here is a week end topic about TSLA....
So Tesla buys Spodumene from a mine in NC and then refine it in TX. A whole lot of tons of Spodumene are going to need to be railroaded(?) to TX. From what I have gathered the spodumene in NC can be refined to yield about 1/8th Lithium compound by weight.
A refinery right next to the mine would reduce the freight charges by 7/8ths. So why not build the refinery at the mine? And then ship the finished product to the battery factories?

I don't know the answers but these are some of the options:
The cost to build and run a refinery in Texas is much less than one in NC.
NC has much stronger rules concerning what to do with the waste leftovers from refining.
Tesla sees Piedmont as a short term source so putting the refinery there means once the switch to another source would make the mine in NC a logistical complication($).
Tesla is building the refinery where it logistically makes sense concerning future sources of Lithium (Besides CO?).

Does someone have another?

Rought numbers off Wikipedia and web:
The smaller end of bulk rail cars hold 3,000 cu ft or so, and 100 ton net capacity. At 1/8 lithium call it 11,400 kg.
A Model 3 pack is estimed to have 11.6 kg of lithium, so one load yields nearly 1,000 cars worth. A 500k vehicle per year factory would need 10 cars a week (more for semi and CT), but still not a lot. Plus the raw material is easier to transport. At $70 a ton, it's only $70k a week, or less than half a million a year total.

I think Tesla mentioned making cathodes also (they get doped with the lithium), so being close to the cell plant is helpful.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Has anyone done the math regarding electrical cargo ships? Could 4680 make it feasible or is carbon based the only way to cross the ocean with a full load in the near future?

Yeah, 2 years ago:

#57228

TL;dr about $1.5B USD for the 30 GWh battery @ $50/kwh with Tesla prices in 2030.

Gonna need another order of magnitude cheaper batteries to make that work financially. So, 2038?

Even at a "Wright's Law" pace of 17% drop in price per year, that's still a $5/kwh bty by 2045:

1.17^15 = 10.5​

We'll get there. By 2050, even trans-oceanic shipping will be well underway to the EV transition. I hope to live to sea that day.

Cheers!