Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[NicoV]

SR+ indeed February, LR and M3P November.

I can imagine the US sales of SR+ could just go berserk now...

The Dutch probably bought all the SR+ cars available for the end of the year, since the tax rules change again begin next year.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

A bunch of posts about cow farts have been deleted. I don’t think I need to explain why.

 

[computerchuck]

Dry powder ready. Order in at $433. If she goes to 'the number which shall not be named,' will buy some call options for sure.

Bring it you MM bast**ds. You will pay! I will win, and will celebrate with your money.

 

[Knightshade]

A bunch of posts about cow farts have been deleted. I don’t think I need to explain why.

Didn't feel like mooving them?

 

[YAWD]

Not sure if any of you guys are watching this:
StorageX Symposium Livestream | Energy

VP of Battery technology, GF Nevada just confirmed:

1. Cells with 5% improved energy density in production. Faster charging is also expected.
2. Over a 5 yr period, energy density will improve by 20% from Panasonic cells.
3. Redwood Materials is partnering with GF Nevada to help with the recycling problem

JB Straubel: Repurposing a used car battery for battery storage is not optimal and will not be competitive with a purpose built home battery storage solution. Best to recycle the materials.

Battery swap is a dead end and a costlier solution for cars as more batteries need to be manufactured. Battery charging times are speeding up.

 

[Curt Renz]

My hands are bloody but I keep picking it up down here. Seems like free money but I could end up in jail. lol I simply can't imagine it not heading up later today or Monday.

Friendly Yahoo finance just sent a think about TSLA performing a bearish continuation wedge.

View attachment 599199

Actually it appears to be what I called in my book a "Bullish Wedge Formation". It formed after a strong uptrend. The implication is that as the wedge's volatility settles toward calm, the previous uptrend should soon resume.

 

[Beltsbear]

The US standard is.

The European standard is to NOT do that.

(it's why German cars usually "outperform" their MFG numbers noticeably when US car mags, which use the US standard, test them).

But that said- in both places- Industry standard is to use the same measuring stick for all your models.

Dodge and Ford and GM report everything they sell with 1 foot rollout

BMW reports everything they sell without it.

It lets you compare different trims of a car apples to apples.

Tesla is the only company that does not do that and uses different measurements for different trims- and they don't even clearly indicate it on the website with an * like they used to back in the P85 days.

It's dishonest and there's really no other way to put it.

No. If they over reported capabilities it would be dishonest. Under reporting something like an acceleration factor is not dishonesty.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Dry powder ready. Order in at $433. If she goes to 'the number which shall not be named,' will buy some call options for sure.

Bring it you MM bast**ds. You will pay! I will win, and will celebrate with your money.

That's what I need to do, pick a price. I think you might get it today but that's pretty low considering next Wed ER. I could try for $433.01 just to have one up on you, but $440 seems more realistic.

ARK just sold some yesterday. I sold 300 on Wed (beat them to it). I saw how it was trying to go higher all day Wed and just not happening. So Thurs became Wed for me... and I was planning to wait for Thurs but the pandemic EU news was hitting the macros already.

But if I got back in (core is smaller than used to be), I'd make about 300 * (462-440) = $6,600. Meanwhile, I am risking that these shares are not in play during a rocket launch anyday. My brother and I were talking about his day trading and how I could easily make about $600/day with about $20K daytrading. I told him my porfolio changes by $20K-100K everyday. Why bother, and why risk missing the upside.

Instead, I'm all for Week trading, with buys on Friday typically. More fun that way. Bigger moves.

 

[SOULPEDL]

And now I see it struggle to go down further since the 11am slam.
This might be the low?

 

[Unpilot]

using the future as a ground truth

Just catching up.
Please explain...like you would to a child.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

I got more @ $449 to help

I missed the biggest push down (too busy reading TMC), but managed to catch a smaller dip at $445. I’ve got another open order for $442, but I don’t think that one will hit. Damn, I need to set an alarm.

 

[AudubonB]

OT:
I got an internship offer from Tesla to work at Giga Berlin. Super excited, starting November
Probably won't be able to post here anymore...

Looking forward to lots of posts from new member RocketPaul.

 

[heltok]

Just catching up.
Please explain...like you would to a child.

Is the car in the lane next to us changing line? Just wait for the future to happen and see if he did or not. Then use to to train the algorithm to detect cut-ins.
Is it a stop sign behind the tree? Drive a bit further into the future and check behind the tree and use that to label the sign.
Is the pedestrian intending to cross the crosswalk? Just let the future happen and find out.
How many lanes are there in the interesection further ahead? Check the future when the car is in the center of the intersection and use that to label what he car should be guessing a long time before it reaches the intersection.

Watch this video starting 19min into the video:

 

[graphite]

You don't appear to understand what they're actually doing.

If they used the SAME measurement for all cars, and it was the less aggressive one, you'd be right.

They're reporting Non-P numbers using one measurement method.

And they're reporting P numbers using a different measurement method.

(and they no longer even clearly tell you they're doing that- they used to on the S a few years back but they removed the disclaimer there too)

That's absolutely 100% dishonest, and something nobody else in the car industry does.

I think more to the point is that they are making the performance edition look better by comparison, presumably in an effort to increase sales for the higher priced model.

We are talking relative shades of dishonesty here, but I think it still falls under the general headline of a deceptive business practice. They should be consistent in methodology, and perhaps find a more legitimate way to make the PE stand out a bit more if that's what they want.

 

[Mike Ambler]

I would hold off until they get a heated touchscreen. On cold mornings, I can feel the tip of my index finger getting cold when I have to scroll the map. Very unpleasant.

/s

We really need a "hilarious" button!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Model 3 with 353 mi range, black trim, all model 3s now come with power trunk lift gate. Damn we gonna sell buku cars! Let’s go Tesla!

...and the Model S even better for $69,420. Here's a theory.

As we already know, Tesla needed to fill some Q4 demand on S, and X I believe. (IMO, this may be in response to early signs of battery Osborning.) So Tesla dropped the price, but not too far that could trigger FUD on how Tesla is getting desperate. So Lucid counters to $69,900 which ALLOWED Tesla to drop their price even further, and with the full excuse as "competition." Meanwhile, the S is likely still the cash cow and they're just throttling demand to an art.

Thanks Lucid - 500K is that much easier now. Remember, it's not about the money at this stage, it's the # of cars. Think about it, why would any company drop the price on a competitor that cannot produce until AT LEAST 2022? It's because Tesla needed to, could, and did. I bet they have all the direct materials for the brand lined up, and all cylinders (or cells) have to fire (conduct) to meet that 500K goal.

 

[gabeincal]

Historical ^DJI data for 2016 elections:

Oct 17, 2016 - 18,086
Oct 24, 2016 - 18,223
Oct 31, 2016 - 18,142
Lowest point in this period: Nov 4, 2016 - 17,888 (MILD DOWN)
Nov 7, 2016 - 18,259
Nov 8, 2016 Election day - 18,200
Nov 14, 2016 - 18,868 (STROOOONG UP!)

Same for 2012:

Oct 16, 2012 - 13,551
Oct 23, 2012 - 13,102
Oct 31, 2012 - 13,096 (QUITE A DROP FROM 16TH)
Nov 6, 2012 Election day - 13,245
Nov 13, 2012 - 12,756
The day DJIA reached Oct 16, 2012 levels again was Jan 17, 2013

Conclusion based on numbers only is that a dip during October is expected but it's a short-term one for sure. How that drop coincides with major bullish TSLA news (like earnings, FSD, range upgrades, credit upgrades, even potential S&P inclusion) is a question.

I'm inclined to hold my positions, including calls. If there is a big drop, I will most likely be buying options 6-9 months out in the $700-800 price range expecting the market to come back stronger than ever.

Not advice.

 

[gabeincal]

And an (IMHO) unusually bullish article from seekingalpha.

Tesla: The Story Unfolds

Tesla is building the sort of loyal and expanding customer base that most companies would love to have. People like the products and feel good contributing to a piece of societal transformation.

Tesla has gone through some profound growing pains and survived questions about its leader’s personality. Production issues dogged the company, and, for a time, the Coronavirus crisis added to those pressures.

Overall, Tesla is a remarkable story. Yes, it has a ‘crazy’ valuation but that is because investors clearly view it as a major disruptive force and a paradigm-changer along the lines of an Amazon. The doomsday predictions for Tesla have fallen away as it has met production challenges, built dispersed and powerful factories, and created new models to attract customers.


Viewed from the perspective of evaluating a traditional company, Tesla is overvalued, but in the context of its progress and role, I believe that Tesla is a ‘buy’ for long-term investors. If you have a horizon of 5-10 years, Tesla may turn out to be one of the strongest pieces of a portfolio. I own Tesla and plan to slowly build my stake slowly over time.

 

[Prunesquallor]

...

So if the difference between buying a Model 3 (or Y) and another EV from a "traditional" automaker comes down to such creature comforts rather than intangibles such as energy efficiency (and, due to wide availability of these convenience features on cars sold at these price ranges, combined with the pervasive instant gratification in our consumerist society, it does come down to the availability of such features for many buyers), then it makes perfect sense for us as investors to expect Tesla to add them to their cars, particularly if it's a simple implementation from a technical standpoint and it's something that people in the Northern Hemisphere directly interface with every time they get in their cars, for 3-6 months every year.

...

Noooo, I can't think of another EV from a traditional automaker I would buy because it had a heated steering wheel. Nope, nada.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Is the car in the lane next to us changing line? Just wait for the future to happen and see if he did or not. Then use to to train the algorithm to detect cut-ins.
Is it a stop sign behind the tree? Drive a bit further into the future and check behind the tree and use that to label the sign.
Is the pedestrian intending to cross the crosswalk? Just let the future happen and find out.
How many lanes are there in the interesection further ahead? Check the future when the car is in the center of the intersection and use that to label what he car should be guessing a long time before it reaches the intersection.

Watch this video starting 19min into the video:

Wow, I underestimated after reading your examples. I used to just think in terms of merging or predicting collisions. Thanks!