Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

It's already started: Tesla’s "Full Self-Driving" beta is here, and it looks scary as hell

The narrative they are pushing is that FSD is dangerous and that you should be afraid of it.

Warning, this a link to The VERGE - long time Tesla haters.

 

[avoigt]

Ark Invest estimates that autonomy will cause an equity shift of $8 Trillion and that Tesla is the leader

Quite impressive.

A leader would possibly be about 20-30% of that value so let's say $1.6 Trillion moves over to Tesla in the next decade which means autonomy alone would give Tesla 400% of the today market cap

 

[HG Wells]

Any day time FSD videos ?

 

[avoigt]

Any day time FSD videos ?

Yes but not well done and less impressive. There will be certainly many more and better videos coming soon

 

[UCF3]

Any day time FSD videos ?

Search for Tesla Owners Club Silicon Valley on Twitter. They drove yesterday afternoon and posted at least one daytime video of a roundabout taking the third exit

 

[Compton]

Any day time FSD videos ?

Here's one. Generally impressive but contains a pretty obvious wrong lane selection around 6:15. Good that they release the FSD slowly to iron out issues before wide release.

 

[Richard34212]

Any day time FSD videos ?

 

[Huskyf]

Any day time FSD videos ?

Yes this one

 

[Huskyf]

Here's one. Generally impressive but contains a pretty obvious wrong lane selection around 6:15. Good that they release the FSD slowly to iron out issues before wide release.

Yes but the car correct itself is error impressive !!!!!

 

[Unpilot]

It's already started: Tesla’s "Full Self-Driving" beta is here, and it looks scary as hell

The narrative they are pushing is that FSD is dangerous and that you should be afraid of it.

Yeah that one is from a known Tesla hating rag.


Edit...beat by @Lycanthrope

 

[RobStark]

 

[ggies07]

Kinda OT but there’s a new shirt available in the Tesla Shop. Sums up my reaction to Q3 results. haha yes 

View attachment 601506

Wait, they can make this one, but not a Battery Day one!?! C'MON Man. Still getting this one though.....

 

[ZachF]

Very impressive FSD Beta video. Robotaxi is coming....

Amazing.

I've always put self-driving in the "cool if it happens" category, but FSD would allow EV passenger-miles to replace ICE passenger-miles at a much faster rate.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ark Invest estimates that autonomy will cause an equity shift of $8 Trillion and that Tesla is the leader

Quite impressive.

A leader would possibly be about 20-30% of that value so let's say $1.6 Trillion moves over to Tesla in the next decade which means autonomy alone would give Tesla 400% of the today market cap

I think 20-30% for the market leader is probably a little low. It might wind up being more of a winner take most kind of deal.

Yes. Check out May-July.View attachment 601553

I'm not a TA guy but you can really see the wedge patterns there.

 

[ZachF]

I think 20-30% for the market leader is probably a little low. It might wind up being more of a winner take most kind of deal.

When it comes to software, the market leader seems to take over 50% of the market.

 

[Unpilot]

TSLA moving opposite of futures so far....pretty low volume.

 

[Words of HABIT]

Thank Thor it is Friday. While of course the end of the week makes today a bit special, to me this day is a bit more special. Today is my first anniversary as a Tesla investor. On this day last year, I purchased my first 100 (20) shares. The main motivation was my financial problem for when I retire (very small pension). I have a couple of years to go before I can retire, and apart from buying a house (with a modest mortgage) the plan was and is to save any Euro I can. In view of a zero interest rate, I decided to look into shares. I wasn't raised that we. My family saved money, didn't do loans (except for a mortgage) and at most a tiny bit in an investment fund. And that was what I did. I did stray away from that. When at university, together with two fellow student I did buy a couple of shares but knowing little about the company, that was gambling. Lost a few tens of Euro's and stopped doing that.

I was always interested in innovative / start up companies, and I happened to read in a newspaper I found in the train about a penny stock. I bought it with most of the savings (2.5k) I had, forgot about it, and landed a 10 bagger about two or three years later. I bought a 400 cc used motorcycle, and put the rest in a savings account. At one point I thought I should invest it, so I put it in the investment fund and that was a few days before a significant crash. My shares didn't recover for years.
I have been an Apple fan (less so these days, but will pick it over Windows that I have to work with for my job and was frustrated that this investment fund didn't do very well. Didn't they see how well Apple was doing. I closed the account for a downpayment for a (lousy) apartment.
At some point I started noticing that people were starting to wear white earphones, like I did. I thought I should invest in Apple. Looked into it a bit but didn't find a way. Investing in a foreign company wasn't as easy as it is these days. Should have been more persistent. You know how it ended up with Apple.

Last year, I didn't pick Apple for my investment. Tesla was my pick because I was enthusiastic about the company for years, spotting that very rare roadster on the road and model Ses that became less and less rare. At some point you would see one every 30 miles on average! And then came Model 3, which grew in popularity quickly. A company that is helping to reduce CO2 emissions and being innovative ticked boxes that are important to me. And clearly there were getting more and more on the road. So Tesla it was. At that moment I didn't know what I was getting into. I was (and to a major extent) am still a naive/novice investor. I did learn a bit, like HODL, not trying to time the market, and market makers. But let's get back to at that day one year ago where I bought my first 20 (100) shares.

Today the situation with Tesla is different from what it was one year ago. Back then, when you invested in Tesla on the 23rd of October, you would get a 20% welcome premium the next day. These days they punish you with just 0.75% to rub it in for not investing more and earlier. (I'm not complaining, just practicing at what I'm not good at: Making jokes). In any case, that raise did easy my nervousness a bit. Well, not for long. I invested more, and found out that the stock price was a roller coaster. I worried a lot about the stock price going down and having bought the shares at too high a price. Don't we all wish we could travel back to last year to invest a bit more. The number of shares grew, also because money that I had planned to spend on my new house (the first nice house I live in for decades) got repurposed. By the next quarter or so I had more money that I had planned to accumulated by the time I'm officially allowed to retire by saving diligently. That lead me to shift the goal post almost a quickly as a theist in a discussion on the validity of his religion. The originally planned amount to be saved would still not give me anything near a comfortable living (I've never bought a new car, and probably never would be able to do so). This new goal would allow me to go on a modest holiday once a year or so. And then I started to dream about retiring earlier (things changed at my job as a result of which this has become a more and more important thing).

But events escalated quickly, I had started to buy on margin (3.3% interest rate) and in February the stock price peaked. It was more money than I'd ever seen. By that time I had learned about the HODL mantra, and I saw the stock price drop and drop and drop (of course accelerated by the margin multiplier). Well, I did still have a sizeable paper profit, and life goes on.

That may be, but not for long. Covid came along, and with it the crash. I did reduce the margin a bit. The broker reduced the percentage coverage for the shares from 50% to 30% and being afraid of getting margin called, I sold shares until I no longer had the margin. The stock price kept falling. I had kept tally about how much money I had put in, and this amount was reached on the 18th of March. Fear struck that I would lose it, and I thought that if I sold then I could buy back cheaper. The seasoned veterans on this site knows that this paragraph will end up in tears. I sold all of them (except one), and in the days after I watched the stock price bounce back. I did start to buy in quickly but gingerly. Margin was soon used again and here I am now, with fewer shares and more debt than before, but also with a net amount that I couldn't have dreamt of one year ago, let alone the 18th of March.

Looking back, on that fateful day I squandered my chance of retiring really early. Currently I'm considering a wild idea: Sell my (nice) house, and use the proceeds to buy more $TRSLA shares. Live somewhere cheaply and if the stock price goes up 100% buy a new house and retire a live with modest means but without the stress of my day job which may be affecting my health currently. But in that $TRSLA joke lies the rub. People love certainty. I could close my account and have more money than I would have had otherwise. But it is not enough for what I really want, given my current situation. Having said that, I'm pleased with how things are looking. I AM Tesla. I have a great future and the volatility and uncertainly will subside.

@kanweg, a lot of us sold out at the bottom of the March 2020 CV-19 drop. Glad you were able to get back in, albeit at less shares. I would never recommend people sacrifice their current lifestyle for potential gain in TSLA shares. Continue to slowly accumulate monthly using dollar cost averaging, HODL, and let compounded returns work for you. IMHO those who initiated their Tesla investment one year ago are spoiled with 10X returns. This is NOT to be repeated annually. Having gone through the 2013 - 3019 period of zero TSLA growth (but 10X Tesla growth) was very disheartening, however looking back it reinforced my view of not to be concerned with the day to day, month to month share price. This is a multi year play. Those that think they can continually time the market are only fooling themselves.

 

[jerry33]

I think 20-30% for the market leader is probably a little low. It might wind up being more of a winner take most kind of deal.

Especially because the competition has to go through a painful rollout process in each area they cover--city by city. And it's not just "I can do Dallas" or "I can do Houston" because most urban areas are made up of multiple cities with their own city counsels.

 

[ZachF]

How is it acceptable for the uberlame analyst who slowly adjust their SP to always be lower than $TSLA is already? How many IQ points are necessary to simply adjust the SP target to be 70% of the current SP every 6 months? Seems lazy and if you were a coach with that record, you would be fired.

Modern-day Wall Street is about 70-80% rent-seeking and useless.

Why growth in finance is a drag on the real economy | VOX, CEPR Policy Portal

Every time the hand of the market starts to cull the financial herd WS cries to the Gov/FR for a bailout.

 

[joh01652]

This is the latest from Brandonee916. I am kinda dissapointed that he had to take over multiple times during the turns

Yeah I wonder how much driving at night vs day affects FSD's ability to see. The 15 min video a few posts above taken during the day seems to do very well.

This is a massive improvement nonetheless. Smart Money will take notice once this update gets into more hands. Sure, it's far from robotaxi-ready, and mainstream media will have a field day pointing out the missteps along the way, but it's a huge leap forward and demonstrates that Tesla is making very significant progress. Exciting times.