Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Why?
FSD is a VISION based system. You can see the potholes. So will FSD. It's just another thing to recognize and react to. I would change your timeline from 10 years to maybe 10 months.
Dan
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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FSD is a VISION based system. You can see the potholes. So will FSD. It's just another thing to recognize and react to. I would change your timeline from 10 years to maybe 10 months.
Dan
This sort of driving may trigger a training video upload.
The Tesla solution will want to know why your behavior varied from what Autopilot would have done.
Perhaps humans need to label potholes, the NN needs to be trained to recognise potholes and they need to adjust the rules.
E.g. Aviod potholes when there is sufficient clear driveable space. That is no different to avoiding other stuff. If there is debris on the road FSD also wants to avoid that.
Surely it could be automated following feedback from sensors in shocks or steering. Surely it wouldn't be too difficult to Retrieve vision data from x seconds prior to the sensor reading then compare it to instances where there was no similar reading to determine what to identify.
No, (maybe 0.0001% chance). The idea behind a factory on each continent is to avoid shipping costs and reduce time from manufacture to payment. No logical reason for it to happen, and every new GF will use the most improved methods, so cars made from the latest factory will always be improved over cars made from the second latest.
Not possible for systems that use LIDAR because it's not scalable nor is it a general purpose solution. There's a significant cost to always updating maps and to rollout each tiny area, which are the only way that LIDAR works. Eventually others will start using cameras, but Tesla will be so far ahead by then those companies will only get a tiny fraction of the market. Technically, Waymo was already first, but that lead just vanished last week. Tesla has basically put them in dead man walking status.
You want me to give exact numbers?
Hmm...I will get back to you in exactly 3 years. How's that?
ZachF
Active Member
$20 trillion? I'm a bull, but that is absurdly silly unless you are expecting a large bout of inflation coming.
You do realize that the entire market cap of all companies in the US is about $26 trillion?
Afaik. The difference between Mobileye and Tesla is quality of data and what that data is used for. Mobileye plans to use their data to continuously update HD-maps that their self driving cars rely on. Tesla is using their data to train an AI that doesn't have to rely on HD-maps to be able to drive.
Tesla's strategy is more difficult to develop and requires higher quality data but once it's mature enough for commercial use it will likely be far easier and cheaper to both scale and maintain.
Link to Mobileye’s Road Experience Management Technology: The Why and How of Making HD Maps for Automated Vehicles | Intel Newsroom
Frothy? Sure. $26 tril is today’s market cap. In 10 years, it will be higher. Especially if you add in TSLA at $20 tril market cap.
You left out the part at 6:44 where the narrator says that they will use lidar and radar to supplement the system. There are videos out showing Tesla’s newest beta version of FSD doing wonky and dangerous things still. It’ll be interesting to see if Tesla’s camera and radar-only system compares to other systems.
ZachF
Active Member
If it (total US market cap) grows to $40 trillion (~62%) by 2030, that means Tesla would be half of the entire US market cap and all the rest of the other companies would have declined in value by some 25%...
I realize this is probably (hopefully) sarcasm but still, lets not let the real bull case be discounted by silliness.
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Krugerrand
Meow
Not all of those are the same; some are pure unadulterated poos and giggles, some are make life on earth easier, and one is have an emergency plan.
That they all (will) make money is simply a byproduct of giving to mankind things that make life fun or better or adventurous.
What other reason/s are you (general) possibly living for? To be stressed out, constantly angry or fearful, to slug out an existence drowning in debt/pain/negativity/fill in the blank with whatever applies. Sign me up!
Say what you will about the imperfections of Elon Musk, but let’s be very clear on this point: absolutely nothing he does or will do is done on behalf of lining his pockets with money. He has zero motivation to create personal wealth. He knows he needs money to get to the end goal, but he does not think, ‘Hmm...what can I do today that will get me more money?’
The accumulation of wealth (how to do it) has been discussed here before. In a dog zen nutshell, you must leave the treat, to get the treat. You must not be married to the idea of ‘I need’ money to attract money.
Do you know what you are talking about, or are you promoting some conspiracists’ unfounded suspicions?
MTL_HABS1909
Active Member
Some people still don’t understand how machine learning works.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
For future reference my rates for research will be $100 per request going forward since your google appears broken, but here's 5 states for free (and this list is not complete, even more states than this allow it- and an even larger list allow some amount of automation with restriction)
Colorado has allowed self driving cars as long as they otherwise comply with all driving laws since June 2017.
Florida- already mentioned as doing same
Georgia- also allows this since July 2017
Nebraska- allows this since April 2018
Nevada- allows this since 2012
So again, the idea Tesla is only waiting on regulators somewhere to "allow" something that's already allowed in a number of states simply ain't so.
They're waiting on the system to be safe and reliable enough to move higher than L2.
Which as a shareholder I sure as hell am GLAD they're doing.
But once they ARE ready, they can turn it on immediately in a number of states (and some additional ones just by filing some paperwork under laws that already are in place too...)
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In this list I think you should distinguish between "use LiDAR" and "rely on LiDAR as the primary sensor" or whatever. I mean, Tesla uses radar, and couldn't you just use LiDAR as a high-resolution radar? Basically, use it as an auxiliary or sanity-check sensor rather than to replace the camera as the main sensor. I don't think that's out of the question.
lafrisbee
Active Member
From historydaily.org-
"January 13th, 1946 that the character, Dick Tracy was seen wearing the iconic 2-way technologically advanced and futuristic gadget on his wrist - the Wrist Radio"
Was Dick Tracy The Character Who Invented The Smart Watch?
People | May 30, 2018
Portrait of Dick Tracy Creator Chester Gould (Getty Images)
Apple came out with their invention of the Apple Watch as the first Smart Watch on April 24, 2015, wowing wrists everywhere. However, the idea of wearing a tech gadget on your wrist was really seen worn first by a comic strip character named Dick Tracy.
Dick Tracy was his name and fighting crime was his game, depicting the battles between law enforcement and the violence of Chicago-style gangsters. He was a ruggedly handsome square-jawed detective who fought against the worst and most dangerous criminals.
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It wasn’t until January 13th, 1946 that the character, Dick Tracy was seen wearing the iconic 2-way technologically advanced and futuristic gadget on his wrist - the Wrist Radio.
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