Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lafrisbee]

I think we owe the S&P committee an ovation for waiting until November instead of doing the smart thing in August. On a personal level, their delay allowed me to learn about options and make some huge decisions last week. I sweated it out over the weekend; yesterday's open was such a huge relief. Since then has been ecstasy.

At the moment, I'm up $650K since Friday's close (almost $400K so far just today). This is so unreal I can't believe it's happening. 8 bagger since March 19th.

Need advice from some of you call option veterans on when to sell the 15Jan2021C650 chunk. Right now, I'm thinking definitely no sooner than 14Dec. My real question is: When should I be concerned about the value going down as the expiration date approaches. Never done this before.

Also have a small 04Dec2020C545 that is up 75%. Thinking of selling quickly if there is a strong opening next Monday.

Advice appreciated.

first world prob...raging

 

[StealthP3D]

Found out why $TSLA is up AH....based on the pure ridiculousness of this article:

Is Tesla About to Get Crushed by General Motors?

View attachment 611538
I think GJ wrote this secretly and published it under someone else's name

And here is the record of the analyst's calls they decided to feature in that article:

I'm going to involk the principle of "The boy who cried wolf". Not that I pay attention to stock analysts anyway...

 

[mejojo]

Never had any doubt that FSD wouldn't be accepted by all who bought it.

What I doubt is the paradigm shift of robotaxi assuming regulatory approval. How many of you Tesla owners will be willing to hire out your Tesla to strangers when you're not needing it? Be honest.

If it is actually a cash-making enterprise, I would buy a fleet of used Model 3 and maybe a few higher-end vehicles.

 

[Tim S]

Agree, but Cathy Woods (Ark) uses Robo taxi as part of her formula for future stock price. I could see Tesla operating a Tesla rental service but not people renting out their expensive car for a way to afford the car. Too many hidden costs, IMO.

Plenty of people already do that on Turo. Tesla renters are willing to pay more and will take better care of your car than the average car renter. I paid $100 a day to rent a Model 3 while on vacation. With free supercharging, it was only slightly more than renting a crappy ICE car.

 

[jerry33]

I’m open to it depending on the details and my family’s personal situation at that time (where we’re living and how much we’re using the car).

But it comes down to execution - how will Tesla handle insurance? Do you have to be on Tesla insurance to participate?

You likely won't have to use Tesla insurance, but I suspect that insurance from traditional insurers will be way too expensive.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Possible institutional buyer tactics, given the obligation to acquire TSLA prior to December 21st:

1) get it over with early, so that if the price is higher, your fund benefits from that
2) leave it until the last few days, or even until the last minute, either because you're selling other assets to generate liquidity, or you think you will get a great deal at the end, or you just don't want to buy TSLA... or whatever other reason
3) more or less just buy at a constant rate. no point getting worked up one way or the other. Unlikely everyone starts on the same day though, as they needed to "confer" and draw up tactics.

The institutional buying is occurring with some proportion of those three possibilities... right? I can't see the SP action changing between now and December 21st. Hard to believe it will do anything other than keep on climbing.

32 trading days between announcement and joining the index. 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of $24.55/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $1,193.64 by close on Dec 21st?

Or if calculated as a constant fractional appreciation... 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of 5.27%/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $2,111.08 by close on Dec 21st?

Third possibility: the percentage of climb changes upwards towards the end, as available shares start to dry up (shorts covering, less and less stockholders selling, etc.)

I'm going to start posting periodic "keep it rational people" comments before we get too crazy.

It's super likely that further appreciation is coming, but that doesn't mean traders and MM's won't let the SP run up a bit then sell calls and short the stock before inclusion. These people don't care about Tesla as much as we think, most of them don't care at all. They simply want to make money.

This ultra-transparent opportunity based on what amounts to mandatory buying in a very well defined window is open for ALL MARKET PARTICIPANTS to leverage. These guys will take those 32 days to maximize their profits in whatever manner works. Logically that means there will be some pretty big swings both up and down.

None of us should be surprised to be sitting right at $520(or lower) on December 16th when the theoretical buying window opens. No one is selling.....but who exactly is going to be buying at $570 next week? We could be ripe yet again for manipulation with the goal of taking weekly call buyer's premiums. My guess is more like $650 on Dec 16th, but you get the point.

 

[clmason]

I was not expecting 1100% gains back in 2011.

Sharing this for education purposes:


Sorry, I don't have anyone else to celebrate with besides you all. Congrats Team!!!

 

[gabeincal]

I think we owe the S&P committee an ovation for waiting until November instead of doing the smart thing in August. On a personal level, their delay allowed me to learn about options and make some huge decisions last week. I sweated it out over the weekend; yesterday's open was such a huge relief. Since then has been ecstasy.

At the moment, I'm up $650K since Friday's close (almost $400K so far just today). This is so unreal I can't believe it's happening. 8 bagger since March 19th.

Need advice from some of you call option veterans on when to sell the 15Jan2021C650 chunk. Right now, I'm thinking definitely no sooner than 14Dec. My real question is: When should I be concerned about the value going down as the expiration date approaches. Never done this before.

Also have a small 04Dec2020C545 that is up 75%. Thinking of selling quickly if there is a strong opening next Monday.

Advice appreciated.

Check out optionsprofitcalculator.com for some useful data on when to expect and how much profit. Congrats, now it’s the hardest part: when to sell.....

Oh and a friendly advice: don’t think about what could have been, after selling!

 

[Artful Dodger]

TSLA is now up over $100 in the past week

Now up > $150 since the S&P 500 announcement (which is what the Market was waiting for...)

 

[Curt Renz]

Despite TSLA's charge to record highs, ARK has not trimmed any of its TSLA shares since it last did so on Thursday.

 

[ZeApelido]

I have calculated that if the current trend continues for the next 173 trading days, I will become the wealthiest person in the world.

 

[ammulder]

I gather poetry isn’t welcome here, even perhaps poetry on the topic of Elon Musk, so I’ll refer to this 3rd-party site:

Elon Musk By Dr. Seuss (GPT-3)

It’s worth your while

 

[electrichapp]

Never had any doubt that FSD wouldn't be accepted by all who bought it.

What I doubt is the paradigm shift of robotaxi assuming regulatory approval. How many of you Tesla owners will be willing to hire out your Tesla to strangers when you're not needing it? Be honest.

My order for two extra Cybertrucks are for robotaxi fleet. ROI is approximately two years!

 

[wipster]

Possible institutional buyer tactics, given the obligation to acquire TSLA prior to December 21st:

1) get it over with early, so that if the price is higher, your fund benefits from that
2) leave it until the last few days, or even until the last minute, either because you're selling other assets to generate liquidity, or you think you will get a great deal at the end, or you just don't want to buy TSLA... or whatever other reason
3) more or less just buy at a constant rate. no point getting worked up one way or the other. Unlikely everyone starts on the same day though, as they needed to "confer" and draw up tactics.

The institutional buying is occurring with some proportion of those three possibilities... right? I can't see the SP action changing between now and December 21st. Hard to believe it will do anything other than keep on climbing.

32 trading days between announcement and joining the index. 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of $24.55/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $1,193.64 by close on Dec 21st?

Or if calculated as a constant fractional appreciation... 6 days into that TSLA has climbed an average of 5.27%/day. Does that mean it will continue and end up at $2,111.08 by close on Dec 21st?

Third possibility: the percentage of climb changes upwards towards the end, as available shares start to dry up (shorts covering, less and less stockholders selling, etc.)

I'm leaning towards the third possibility...

 

[BornToFly]

I would not be the least bit surprised if the stock goes from ~700-800 back to 450 after inclusion is complete. People who have been front running will take their profits and run. Shorts will pile on, etc. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm mentally prepared for it and will be ready to trade for it (Only selling calls, not buying calls, waiting to sell Puts until the drop has stopped, not catching a falling knife, etc)....

P.S. - I do predict a rebound from the 400s in January when delivery numbers and Q4ER are released.

 

[Tyler34]

I have calculated that if the current trend continues for the next 173 trading days, I will become the wealthiest person in the world.

...wealthier than any one currently in the world is.

There are many people who have at least 1 more share than you do.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I would not be the least bit surprised if the stock goes from ~700-800 back to 450 after inclusion is complete. People who have been front running will take their profits and run. Shorts will pile on, etc. I hope it doesn't happen, but I'm mentally prepared for it and will be ready to trade for it (Only selling calls, not buying calls, waiting to sell Puts until the drop has stopped, not catching a falling knife, etc)....

P.S. - I do predict a rebound from the 400s in January when delivery numbers and Q4ER are released.

Eh, I don't think it'll drop back into the 400's. I think if it touches 700-800, then it'll drop probably to the 500-600's before bouncing off the Q4 numbers.

 

[2virgule5]

...wealthier than any one currently in the world is.

There are many people who have at least 1 more share than you do.

Which then becomes a race on who’s gonna buy the last remaining island is stock between the Principality of Unpilot and the Commonwealth of Krugerland...

 

[Sudre]

This might actually work. I found a free GIF app to put together the last four IO charts.

Looks like Puts are more numerous than Calls at the $500 strike as of close yesterday. There are not many Puts selling above that tho which is odd? All we get is a few $520s? Definitely seems like a push down is coming. We shall see tomorrow. Maybe with the jump today THEY are going to throw in the towel. Looks like $550 was going to be a line in the sand. THEY might not get their way this week.

 

[mejojo]

Which then becomes a race on who’s gonna buy the last remaining island is stock between the Principality of Unpilot and the Commonwealth of Krugerland...

I guess you haven't heard of Musk's new secret venture "Machines that make the Machines that make the Islands"???