Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FrankSG]

$5B at $640/share is 7,812,500 shares, so if the selling pressure is from Tesla doing their cap raise, we should see that flush itself through the system fairly quickly given the volume.

I'd imagine it's spread out over at least 2, if not 3 or 4 days. They might also spread it out over stock price intervals, like $620, $640, $660, $680. Or 50% on the first day, then 25% on the second and third. There's a couple of possibilities, and there's no way to really know for sure. But the cap at $640 seems to still be in place even after that 20 minute macro dip, so $640 being the lower limit for the offering for today seems quite plausible.

They might prefer to get it done before the weekend, so that the new number of outstanding shares can be taken into consideration by the S&P.

 

[traxila]

I'd imagine it's spread out over at least 2, if not 3 or 4 days. They might also spread it out over stock price intervals, like $620, $640, $660, $680. Or 50% on the first day, then 25% on the second and third. There's a couple of possibilities, and there's no way to really know for sure. But the cap at $640 seems to still be in place even after that 20 minute macro dip, so $640 being the lower limit for the offering for today seems quite plausible.

They might prefer to get it done before the weekend, so that the new number of outstanding shares can be taken into consideration by the S&P.

Yes, it makes sense to me that all of these shares will be sold before the weekend.

Tesla did not waste any time with the last filing either. All this speculation at the time that the at market offering was waiting for the S&P inclusion to ease their pain. Turned out completely wrong. The moment Tesla filed they began to dump shares.

I suspect they are doing very much the same right now. They are happy with the price and they made the decision. That is my take.

 

[AperiodicCoder]

Rode QuantumScape from $23 -> $70. Took all that and grabbed 163 TSLA @ $640.

Edit: I love this thread because we have so many people paying attention to the whole competitive space. This is where I learned of QS doing their SPAC right when they announced it, and of course was confident enough to buy some shares due to JB's involvement.

 

[viridi]

As TSLA approaches $640 again, large orders getting put in and pulled at $640 or near. At some point, volume hopefully will overrun the capping.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

You weren't replying to me, but to the OP...

I bought low & I continued buying at stupid high prices.

The stupid high prices would be regarded by most as a bargain NOW.

In my opinion, there are no better performing companies than Musk's.

I expect future stock price will be higher, I define near future as 5-10 years. Future... rest of my life unless something key changes.

Agreed...i think a lot of us on the board can concur that $550 last week was a 'bargain'

 

[Model S M.D.]

Yes and No . Judging from your posts, you seem to 'worry' a lot about $TSLA dropping. I do not know what your investment time line is, however, there is no way you can time the market, let alone $TSLA. If i had an extra $100k, i would probably be buying on down days like this and save some dry powder later on. The price difference will be a moot point in the future...it is impossible to time the highs and lows.

@SeaNile This is sage advice (but do your own research, put your big boy pants on, blah blah).

For high growth companies the best thing to do is DCA, so you can catch the exponential growth curve at the beginning when it comes. There is no way to time this. I just buy on red days whenever I have cash over time and it has worked out really well. Make a spreadsheet and keep track of your overall cost basis across accounts and you will see the power of DCA rather than trying to time the market. Today’s prices will look like a typo/rounding error in 5-10 years.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Upgraded $TSLA from $80 - $90...at least he has more 1/8 starts than GJ

 

[Tim S]

TSLA down about $10 but these calls are all up over 20% today. Lots of people betting on another $300-400 rise.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

Option trading seems to have decreased today from yesterday. 297k calls versus 137k puts being traded today.

11,161 call option trade went through for dec 24, 2020 calls at $660 strike for a $55 premium. That's a $61+M trade. Possibly a spread with the trade shown below it but the quantity is off.

IV is continuing it's steady climb and is currently at 109%. Historically we have had higher IV rates 51% of the time in the last twelve months with a high of 186%.

 

[Sancho]

As TSLA approaches $640 again, large orders getting put in and pulled at $640 or near. At some point, volume hopefully will overrun the capping.

If yesterday is any guide, TSLA will breakout skyward within the hour.

 

[Krugerrand]

Cushion money. 10 shares bought at 633.03.

What, is your couch located in a brothel?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

If yesterday is any guide, TSLA will breakout skyward within the hour.

Or when the $5B shares have been gobbled up

 

[Krugerrand]

TSLA down about $10 but these calls are all up over 20% today. Lots of people betting on another $300-400 rise.

View attachment 615936

They must be following Mom on Twitter.

 

[Mo City]

Why is my 1224C800 up 8% while all of my Jan and later calls are down?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Figured out why the JP Morgan said "Tesla Inc.’s shares are now “dramatically” overvalued and investors thinking of raising their holdings in the company ahead of its impending addition to the S&P 500 Index should not"...JP Morgan isn't one of the brokers Tesla used for the last (2) $5B offerings correct? Saltiness confirmed

 

[Zero CO2]

@SeaNile This is sage advice (but do your own research, put your big boy pants on, blah blah).

For high growth companies the best thing to do is DCA, so you can catch the exponential growth curve at the beginning when it comes. There is no way to time this. I just buy on red days whenever I have cash over time and it has worked out really well. Make a spreadsheet and keep track of your overall cost basis across accounts and you will see the power of DCA rather than trying to time the market. Today’s prices will look like a typo/rounding error in 5-10 years.

really pay attention to what Model S M.D. said above

as evidence here is my actual DCA over last 2 years ... i thought $ 443 and $450 were mistakes these purchases were Pre SP500 announcement ... a week or so later i looked like a genius

 

[generalenthu]

View attachment 615934

Option trading seems to have decreased today from yesterday. 297k calls versus 137k puts being traded today.

11,161 call option trade went through for dec 24, 2020 calls at $660 strike for a $55 premium. That's a $61+M trade. Possibly a spread with the trade shown below it but the quantity is off.

IV is continuing it's steady climb and is currently at 109%. Historically we have had higher IV rates 51% of the time in the last twelve months with a high of 186%.

I think the timestamp gives it away. Can't have 2 large trades go thru the same second.

Also it looks like a roll to me. Some is rolling their 600 calls to 660 calls for the same $ amount

 

[Remster32]

Here's a view of the JPMorgan note if anyone wants a laugh.

 

[kanweg]

Tidbit: for December (8) in the Netherlands Model 3 is merely at position 1 in both the all cars and BEV rankings with only twice as many cars delivered (1055) as the runner up.
Total cars sold so far is 6055, so an 20% overall market share in 2030 is within reach.

 

[Todd Burch]

Tidbit: for December (8) in the Netherlands Model 3 is merely at position 1 in both the all cars and BEV rankings with only twice as many cars delivered (1055) as the runner up.
Total cars sold so far is 6055, so an 20% overall market share in 2030 is within reach.

That sounds like speculative fervor!