Runarbt
Active Member
3 large after hour orders - 150k to 193k?
Some funds starting to buy?
Some funds starting to buy?
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
asburgers
Sell order in at $8008.5
The company is going to be broke with all the $100 cheques they will be sending out. /s
Cybertruck production hell already!
Don't understand all this stuff about inclusion dynamics, but Rob's analysis was very eye opening
Great use of time for me and would suggest to anyone who is HODL or option trading TSLA.
My takeaways are (and I'm writing this down to make myself feel better about not understanding, but hazarding a guess anyway):
1. It just doesn't seem possible for the closing cross tomorrow to rectify all the imbalance for index funds. I find it highly probable that a huge percentage of shares (20M+) will have buyers with no sellers.
2. AH trading will then be very interesting and it would seem that to rectify this imbalance we should see an increase well into the 10% to 20% range in an attempt to find sellers. But I just don't see how that many shares will find new homes by market open Monday.
3. Pre-market would also then be interesting and would assume that it will continue to rise as index funds attempt to find a way to minimum %'s.
4. Really no idea for benchmark funds, but can't wait to see how that plays out in total.
Super exciting stuff is going to happen and I'm hoping that it ends with a $1069.42 price at some point.
*Not advice
My takeaways are (and I'm writing this down to make myself feel better about not understanding, but hazarding a guess anyway):
1. It just doesn't seem possible for the closing cross tomorrow to rectify all the imbalance for index funds. I find it highly probable that a huge percentage of shares (20M+) will have buyers with no sellers.
2. AH trading will then be very interesting and it would seem that to rectify this imbalance we should see an increase well into the 10% to 20% range in an attempt to find sellers. But I just don't see how that many shares will find new homes by market open Monday.
3. Pre-market would also then be interesting and would assume that it will continue to rise as index funds attempt to find a way to minimum %'s.
4. Really no idea for benchmark funds, but can't wait to see how that plays out in total.
Super exciting stuff is going to happen and I'm hoping that it ends with a $1069.42 price at some point.
*Not advice
I can’t get the hang of this ‘trading shares’ thing.
I bought some for the first time a number of weeks back, but I want all of my shares just the same whether ‘core’ or ‘trading.’ Have never parted with a single one and don’t want to (well maybe a few in 2024 or so).
Here I’m supposed to close on that disused cabin on Monday. Pretty sure I’ll not be selling shares to send any money to escrow by then, lol.
Probably ask for an extension with a disclaimer that I’m still not sure about the purchase. Like as not I’ll ‘promote’ those trading shares to core shares and walk away from that real estate deal.
Can you borrow against your portfolio? Most brokerages allow that and offer very reasonable rates. Some even allow borrowers to pay only the interest each month, and let the loan ride as long as the borrower wishes. That way you can benefit from your TSLA holdings without needing to liquidate any of them.
EDIT: Technical difficulties, no live show.
Tesla Daily going live in a few minutes:
Tesla Daily going live in a few minutes:
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I don't think indexers will attempt to find shares in the AH. This totally defeats the purpose of the closing cross, even making it worse. If there's a shortfall, I think they'll just repeat it Monday, with VWAP increased until they can find enough sellers.
We have been so focused on inclusion that I think we are forgetting how solid the fundamentals have become.
Many of us would have strongly considered selling all of our shares for 3k a piece not so long ago. Now? I’m not really even considering selling my leaps, at least not at this level. Tesla is eating the world and I want to be along for that ride. I’ve seen plenty of solid bulls talk about how the big gains are behind us but I don’t think that’s the case.
The applications and TAM for EVs, autonomy, grid storage, and solar are far larger than we can comprehend.
Many of us would have strongly considered selling all of our shares for 3k a piece not so long ago. Now? I’m not really even considering selling my leaps, at least not at this level. Tesla is eating the world and I want to be along for that ride. I’ve seen plenty of solid bulls talk about how the big gains are behind us but I don’t think that’s the case.
The applications and TAM for EVs, autonomy, grid storage, and solar are far larger than we can comprehend.
I was thinking this as well. Liquidity in AH is super low, and I would think they'd avoid it. Monday's opening cross might be a better option for them in terms of minimizing dispersion, but that is also less liquid than the closing cross.
There actually might be an interesting dynamic in Friday's AH trading wherein speculators that have let the price get bid up seek to offload shares in AH, punching through the shallow order book and driving the price way down without the forced buying of indexers there to prop it up.
Just thinking out loud.
EDIT: Come to think of it, this scenario might be playing out AH right now.
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fwiw -- I called TD Ameritrade to get some clarity on (currently) OTM $700 options I have expiring tomorrow (in a Roth account).
My question was: What happens if they are OTM 5 minutes before close, but then TSLA runs up and the options become ITM in the last minute and I don't have a chance to close them.
TD Ameritrade told me that 1) since there is no margin in a Roth, and 2) since I don't have the free cash available to exercise the options, that they actually would most likely be monitoring and would sell me out (i.e. close my position) 30-45 minutes BEFORE market close.
They said if I don't want this to happen to me (i.e. if I'm planning for a rise in the last 10 minutes), that I should call them an hour before and let them know.
I share this info in case applicable/helpful to anyone else. You may have different intel than I, but something to be aware of.
As for my original question about the options expiring ITM before I have a chance to close (and with no cash available to exercise), sounds like not an ideal situation. But seems like there may be a way they can exercise/immediately sell in some type of seamless transaction.
My question was: What happens if they are OTM 5 minutes before close, but then TSLA runs up and the options become ITM in the last minute and I don't have a chance to close them.
TD Ameritrade told me that 1) since there is no margin in a Roth, and 2) since I don't have the free cash available to exercise the options, that they actually would most likely be monitoring and would sell me out (i.e. close my position) 30-45 minutes BEFORE market close.
They said if I don't want this to happen to me (i.e. if I'm planning for a rise in the last 10 minutes), that I should call them an hour before and let them know.
I share this info in case applicable/helpful to anyone else. You may have different intel than I, but something to be aware of.
As for my original question about the options expiring ITM before I have a chance to close (and with no cash available to exercise), sounds like not an ideal situation. But seems like there may be a way they can exercise/immediately sell in some type of seamless transaction.
Yes...i intend to do so in the future to hold on to my $TSLA chairs...its called a SBLOC (Securities Backed Line of Credit)
agastya
Member
Can you not put a sell limit order for your options? If they are ITM for even a slight moment before close, I'm hoping there is good OI and liquidity on the calls especially at a round number like 700 for someone to take them off you.
Couldn't agree more.
I bought my first shares in 2017. At the time, there was a lot of upside, but the risk was still very high. Looking back, sure it's easy to say that was the time to go big. But I'm a conservative investor and I couldn't do it. I've been adding to my holdings all along as I feel risk is decreasing steadily. Clearly we don't have a 20 bagger ahead of us. But I think what we have is an easy 3-5x with a decent chance at much greater returns. And most importantly, with VERY LOW RISK! I can't imagine a better risk/return opportunity.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I think they will attempt in the opening cross on Monday as well.
But the larger issue is the same - to the degree that they aren't buying today/tomorrow, and come up short at end of day on Friday with their market on close buys, they'll be scrambling after that to acquire shares as expeditiously as possible.
I figure we'll have some insights by Friday evening and into Saturday on the closing cross volume as well as the size of TSLA positions the ETFs at least were able to acquire. We can compare the %s across those ETFs to get a feel for how evenly distributed the universe of funds is in their acquisition, and probably make an estimate of how far the funds have to go to acquire what they need.
Of course, that's what everybody else will be doing as well.
NPR - hour ago: In Historic Move, Biden To Pick Native American Rep. Haaland As Interior Secretary
Excerpt:
In an interview before her nomination, Haaland told NPR that would be her priority, too.
"Climate change is the challenge of our lifetime, and it's imperative that we invest in an equitable, renewable energy economy," she said.
A shift in priorities at Interior could have major implications for global climate change and the United States' outsized contribution to it. About one-quarter of all U.S. carbon emissions come from fossil fuels extracted on public lands, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That includes emissions from drilling, transporting and refining those fossil fuels before they're burned.
Excerpt:
In an interview before her nomination, Haaland told NPR that would be her priority, too.
"Climate change is the challenge of our lifetime, and it's imperative that we invest in an equitable, renewable energy economy," she said.
A shift in priorities at Interior could have major implications for global climate change and the United States' outsized contribution to it. About one-quarter of all U.S. carbon emissions come from fossil fuels extracted on public lands, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. That includes emissions from drilling, transporting and refining those fossil fuels before they're burned.
Bill Wright on Twitter seems* to have confirmed an SR+ Model Y. https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1339474667808018434
*there was a lot of confusion on this and still is. Judging from Bill's "likes," it seems he is confirming an SR+ Model Y. Follow the link above to see why this isn't 100% clear. If it's not SR+ Model Y, it's recycled materials into 3/Y packs...or both. So, one of those three!
*there was a lot of confusion on this and still is. Judging from Bill's "likes," it seems he is confirming an SR+ Model Y. Follow the link above to see why this isn't 100% clear. If it's not SR+ Model Y, it's recycled materials into 3/Y packs...or both. So, one of those three!
Ok, the very low risk is my opinion. And no doubt there will be some pain along the way. But given what we know about the markets Tesla is going after, the success Tesla already has, what the competition isI don't know about VERY LOW RISK! but i do agree with 3-5x or greater...easy...ummm...that's up for debate
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