Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[enzo]

Partial background: Over the last 3-4 years, I've evolved from committing 30%-40% into TSLA to being "all-in". For me, all-in has since evolved from 100% HODLing to adding leverage. I converted 16% of my TSLA to Jan 2021 calls shortly after S&P inclusion was announced and made bank. This is my last time playing the craps table (i.e, short term calls).

Two weeks ago, I put 15% of my total into Jan 2023 $900 LEAPS. TSLA has increased 21% since then while the calls are already up 80%. Just wild.

Confession: After seeing that Chamath video, I admit to being gripped by FOMO. It's the same feeling Ron Baron gave me back in 2016 that was the final push to buying shares.

Question: I'm ready to plunk another 5%-10% into Mar 2023 OTM LEAPS. Are we in another once-in-a-lifetime 2-3 year run? Not so much like 2020, but maybe a 2x-3x over a 24-36 month period (like Gene Munster said recently)?

My thought process is: Over a 24 month period, TSLA is as close to a certain success as anything can be. The Jan 2023 $900s seemed like such a no-brainer and indeed were very cautious. What's the big deal with going $1100-$1300 for March 2023, right? I can certainly afford to lose it at this point.

Thoughts appreciated. Talk me down from the ledge.

You can still obtain leverage going DITM. Many have said "I can certainly afford to lose it" but then have to endure an extreme level of stress to get through it to the other side.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How much money has to be plowed into TSLA for the stock to increase 40B? Is it the same amount, I’ve read online that 1M in investments from retail investors with no sellers would make the stock appreciate of around 7 to 8M. Has someone read and can confirm this?

Lol, you don't need to read this, you can calculate it simply (anyone with 1st Year Microeconomics should be capable of this).

The Market Cap is X. Shares outstanding is Y. SP in equilibrium is X/Y.

Add $40B to capital: (X+40)/Y = New SP

Taduh!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Nowhere near all my shares. Just 5-10% this time. Even coming close to risking my financial security is something I'd be ashamed of.

I should have done that too, but I was swept up in the euphoria of the ATM at the time, Model 3 had just launched, what could go wrong? My expectation was to ride the wave up holding leaps and swap back to shares when the run was over.

However, a sharp drop happened in just a short time and before I realized it my leaps were at 1/3rd of what I had paid. At that time I decided instead of getting out to ride it out (they were leaps). That was wrong, I should have sold at a loss. Eventually they recovered enough that I rolled them to buy myself more time.

 

[ggies07]

love it. And I remember years ago someone by the name of Gary Potter telling us to "feel the flow"....

 

[TheTalkingMule]

MM's: "Thank you for your patience as we attempted to shake out as many $800 calls as possible. We now return you to your regularly scheduled merciless ratchet upwards."

 

[WattsHappening]

I continue to be in awe of those of you who use leverage effectively to greatly increase your returns. Congrats to you all!

I'll save you all the pain by sticking to my HODL strategy. You can be sure the day that I increase leverage will be the day the SP starts dropping.

 

[adiggs]

Can't agree with this. While the percentage may not be as great, shareholders will be greatly rewarded for staying in TSLA. It's market cap is <$800B. Do you think it's not going to worth trillions someday?

Adding on - since I thought 10x from the low 400s yesterday (seems like yesterday anyway ), then that still leaves 5x from here... all by 2030.

I'm starting to sound like a bear, with only a $4T market cap on the horizon.

 

[wipster]

Keep in mind how Elon is already putting rocket thrusters on the options list for the Roadster.

Tesla cars will be autonomous flying cars in ten years... and, they will fly in and out of tunnels too.

Just don't let him contract the Sirius Cybernetics Corporation for their GPP tech, please.

Or at least everyone in the Neuralink Matrix will think they are...

 

[goinfraftw]

Of I on

Or at least everyone in the Neuralink Matrix will think they are...

...in their Boring Company tunnel cities

 

[NicoV]

I wonder who sold the calls that Tesla bought to limit the dilutive effect of their convertible bonds (I can’t quickly find the actual data, but see e.g. https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ffbffe35e26 and Tesla Raises $2.4 Billion In Capital; Is The Company Desperate?).
With the 10x run over the last year, whoever sold these must sit on monstrous losses).

 

[4chi]

809?

Let's just say that the mobile detailers working on my M3 in the driveway are getting a better than average tip today!

 

[Mike Smith]

TSLA is still the most heavily shorted stock on the market, active S&P funds still haven't even started buying based on volume, and anyone who had any serious desire to sell did so during the S&P inclusion..

 

[Big Time]

DANCE

 

[Artful Dodger]

I believe it's called "confirmation bias".

Indeed, it's one of the seven deadly sins for investors:

• Confirmation Bias
• Loss Aversion
• Gambler's Fallacy
• Availability Cascade
• Framing Effect
• Bandwagon Effect
• Dunning-Kruger Effect

Luckily, once we invested in TSLA, we can just HODL

New Intraday High just now:

 

[Discoducky]

TSLA is still the most heavily shorted stock on the market, active S&P funds still haven't even started buying based on volume, and anyone who had any serious desire to sell did so during the S&P inclusion..

And volume today isn't ridiculous either; nobody selling, only HODL

 

[mongo]

Lol, you don't need to read this, you can calculate it simply (anyone with 1st Year Microeconomics should be capable of this).

The Market Cap is X. Shares outstanding is Y. SP in equilibrium is X/Y.

Add $40B to capital: (X+40)/Y = New SP

Taduh!

The question was $ into TSLA (net purchasing), not dollars into Tesla (asset increase).

How much money has to be plowed into TSLA for the stock to increase 40B? Is it the same amount, I’ve read online that 1M in investments from retail investors with no sellers would make the stock appreciate of around 7 to 8M. Has someone read and can confirm this?

Today has been 40 million shares and a $55 share price increase. Maximum new money (high-low * shares) is < $2.22 Billion, yet market cap is up ~$52 billion ($55 * 950m shares).

The sale of one share sets the stock price which sets the market cap.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Got about 20+ texts today from people i told to buy $TSLA back in March 2020....Some said "Holy s**t, Thank you!"..some said "Congrats!", majority that did not listen said "F U"!

 

[Discoducky]

Can anybody on this board explain to me how we can have millions of flying cars safely above our heads. Elon doesn't understand how flying cars can work either. There is only one person and company talking about TUNNELS. i can just see 5 years from now the bears slaming The Boring Company and keeping the stock low just like Tesla. Most of the big money has already been made in Tesla. Go Boring Company the next 20 bagger.

Yes, but can we discuss in another thread please? We've got a whole forum for topics like that.

 

[DLAv8r]

Partial background: Over the last 3-4 years, I've evolved from committing 30%-40% into TSLA to being "all-in". For me, all-in has since evolved from 100% HODLing to adding leverage. I converted 16% of my TSLA to Jan 2021 calls shortly after S&P inclusion was announced and made bank. This is my last time playing the craps table (i.e, short term calls).

Two weeks ago, I put 15% of my total into Jan 2023 $900 LEAPS. TSLA has increased 21% since then while the calls are already up 80%. Just wild.

Confession: After seeing that Chamath video, I admit to being gripped by FOMO. It's the same feeling Ron Baron gave me back in 2016 that was the final push to buying shares.

Question: I'm ready to plunk another 5%-10% into Mar 2023 OTM LEAPS. Are we in another once-in-a-lifetime 2-3 year run? Not so much like 2020, but maybe a 2x-3x over a 24-36 month period (like Gene Munster said recently)?

My thought process is: Over a 24 month period, TSLA is as close to a certain success as anything can be. The Jan 2023 $900s seemed like such a no-brainer and indeed were very cautious. What's the big deal with going $1100-$1300 for March 2023, right? I can certainly afford to lose it at this point.

Thoughts appreciated. Talk me down from the ledge.

I'm the same way..been staring at leaps for a bit and just trying to make the right move. It's already cost me. I'm thinking ITM is more on the mark..there will potentially be some consolidation ahead.

 

[elasalle]

Option prices doubled in 3 days
Jan 22 1425 now at 115, 3 days back was at 74 ...