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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It would be interesting to see a comparison between Giga Berlin vs Texas and all of the regulatory rules and red tape that Tesla has had to go through to build a factory. Didn't Elon just say that their needs to be a department in Germany that does nothing but eliminate out-dated regulations? I'm thinking Texas is much more business friendly.
I won’t speak to the bureaucracy/culture, but there was a stark contrast between the environment of the two sites before construction. Berlin was a tree farm (which will have numerous other species living in and around the monoculture trees) while Austin was a rock quarry (essentially devoid of any form of life larger than 1mm. It really isn’t hard to imagine a slightly more simplistic “environmental impact assessment” for Austin vs Berlin.;)
 
The savings from using cooling plates instead of cooling ducts is completely offset by the additional per-cell costs of making them tabless.
On the other hand Elon said at Battery Day that the tab is an extra step that slows down production and removing it would eliminate that issue. I'd think that going tabless reduces costs.
 
It’s his job to be critical. So no shock he finds things to be critical about. Meh.
Can't agree with you here. Those tolerances on the passenger side were simply not acceptable and should never have left the factory floor, especially this far into production. You don't need to be Sandy Munro to see those flaws. It's not just the person who installed the door, and the tail light, it was also the person/people in QC who let it pass, along with anyone along the way who actually looked at the car.
 
I made a guestimate type statement to a group of colleagues that there was about 5000 new cars per day WITHOUT GAS TANKS hitting the streets, and that at some point as that number climbs the oil industry would have to take notice.

How close do you think I was. World wide, only BEV. Opinions welcome.

Cheers
I figure it takes about 25 BEVs to displace 1 barrel per day of motor fuel demand. So at 5000 EV per day, that is an offset around 73 kb/d over a year. Given that in an ordinary year (not a Covid-19 impacted year) motor fuel growth is in range of 650 to 1000 kb/d, 73 kb/b is a material amount of demand erosion.

My guess is that another 10-fold expansion of EV production along with other rising sources of oil demand erosion will put oil demand growth into structural decline. Moreover, Tesla is the pacesetter for the BEV industry. Any competitor that doesn't want to ultimately lose share to Tesla will have to grow faster. And Tesla can achieve 10X growth in the span of 6 years.
 
Can't agree with you here. Those tolerances on the passenger side were simply not acceptable and should never have left the factory floor, especially this far into production. You don't need to be Sandy Munro to see those flaws. It's not just the person who installed the door, and the tail light, it was also the person/people in QC who let it pass, along with anyone along the way who actually looked at the car.
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues? Does anybody care other than manufacturing wonks? My guess is that almost nobody even sees these details. I know I would be irritated for about five minutes and then never even notice it again.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked. There are tiny variations in stamped parts, and everything else. Probably the mega casting reduces one area of variation. Clearly there must be automatic choosing going on, where a part that's slightly out of spec gets mated with another that is also slightly out of spec in a way that will compensate rather than exaggerate the problem. The fastening points, whether they be bolts or welds no doubt have a little wiggle room which can be exploited to true things up as well. It just has to be implemented properly, and that means not by people eyeballing things. This is how you make manufacturing better.

I'm quite sure those passenger side problems were deemed acceptable because they work just fine. And I notice that there was comparison only with perfection, not with how similarly priced cars typically are delivered. Doesn't seem reasonable to me. Did you notice how perfunctory Sandy was about perfection on the driver's side? He expected perfection.

So ask yourself about what the mission is: how is it served by slowing things down to achieve perfection? I think what you always want is to be as fast as possible while being good enough, and working on getting better in all ways. But cosmetic perfection deserves to be way down on the list of necessities. It's a nice to have, but good enough will do.
 
Oh, the excuses for more bureaucracy than TSLAQ supporters. It’s Tesla, not Enron. Ask Elon to plant trees and he says he’ll plant 3x what he took down. That’s literally a 30 second conversation. X is how much water you can have. That’s another minute discussion.

He’s for you, for Germany, for endangered species, for us all. Tell him what needs to be done now and then get out of his way already. The whole idea of needing months to study the situation and talk about it at length is ridiculous. Yes it is. There are factories all over the world that have been studied for decades and in Germany of all places. If you don’t know by now what you do and do not want to happen at said factory, you’ve not been paying attention. And I’m quite sure Elon feels the same given his past comments about what government should be about. I agree with him.

I’m German, married to a German. There’s truth in German stereotypes and those honest enough will readily admit to them. Giga Austin is going to be advancing the mission before Berlin. Shame on the bureaucrats and those who support them.

You are apparently thinking it's a good idea to let different laws apply differently to different people. Hey, I like this guy so he can do whatever.

I absolutely think these environmental laws are way overdone. But I'm not about to let some people skip over whatever laws we have because some people are deemed more important. The US is a prime example of what can go wrong then.

What's interesting though is that Berlin is about as many months ahead of Austin as when it started construction. Doing so without working more than regular 8 hour days and Sundays off it seems. Austin is working 24/7 just to keep up.
 
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues? Does anybody care other than manufacturing wonks? My guess is that almost nobody even sees these details. I know I would be irritated for about five minutes and then never even notice it again.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked. There are tiny variations in stamped parts, and everything else. Probably the mega casting reduces one area of variation. Clearly there must be automatic choosing going on, where a part that's slightly out of spec gets mated with another that is also slightly out of spec in a way that will compensate rather than exaggerate the problem. The fastening points, whether they be bolts or welds no doubt have a little wiggle room which can be exploited to true things up as well. It just has to be implemented properly, and that means not by people eyeballing things. This is how you make manufacturing better.

I'm quite sure those passenger side problems were deemed acceptable because they work just fine. And I notice that there was comparison only with perfection, not with how similarly priced cars typically are delivered. Doesn't seem reasonable to me. Did you notice how perfunctory Sandy was about perfection on the driver's side? He expected perfection.

So ask yourself about what the mission is: how is it served by slowing things down to achieve perfection? I think what you always want is to be as fast as possible while being good enough, and working on getting better in all ways. But cosmetic perfection deserves to be way down on the list of necessities. It's a nice to have, but good enough will do.
Hopefully everyone see why the critics/ bears/ “experts” / oil / dealerships focus on build quality of Tesla. It’s the very first impression. The overall ownership, driving experience, and technology is a million times better than any ICE car and it’s why they have to keep the focus one the panel gaps. They are scared $hitless that potential customer will get in a Tesla.
 
Oh, the excuses for more bureaucracy than TSLAQ supporters. It’s Tesla, not Enron. Ask Elon to plant trees and he says he’ll plant 3x what he took down. That’s literally a 30 second conversation. X is how much water you can have. That’s another minute discussion.

He’s for you, for Germany, for endangered species, for us all. Tell him what needs to be done now and then get out of his way already. The whole idea of needing months to study the situation and talk about it at length is ridiculous. Yes it is. There are factories all over the world that have been studied for decades and in Germany of all places. If you don’t know by now what you do and do not want to happen at said factory, you’ve not been paying attention. And I’m quite sure Elon feels the same given his past comments about what government should be about. I agree with him.

I’m German, married to a German. There’s truth in German stereotypes and those honest enough will readily admit to them. Giga Austin is going to be advancing the mission before Berlin. Shame on the bureaucrats and those who support them.

This reminds me of the early days of nuclear power: "Electricity too cheap to measure - free for everybody . . ." Perhaps a little bit of environmental (and other) reflections prior to rushing into Chernobyl, Three Miles Island and Fukushima would have benefited a few thousand (million?) people.
Or the 'benefits' of Love Canal could have been considered beforehand, not after it caught on fire.
 
On the other hand Elon said at Battery Day that the tab is an extra step that slows down production and removing it would eliminate that issue. I'd think that going tabless reduces costs.

I don't recall his exact words, but I'm pretty sure he was referring to a different aspect of integrating the cell into a pack. Looking at an unwound jelly-roll, the extra "flaps" in a tabless cell involves a more complicated step to produce the flaps than the "cap" for a tabbed cell.
 
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues? Does anybody care other than manufacturing wonks? My guess is that almost nobody even sees these details. I know I would be irritated for about five minutes and then never even notice it again.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked. There are tiny variations in stamped parts, and everything else. Probably the mega casting reduces one area of variation. Clearly there must be automatic choosing going on, where a part that's slightly out of spec gets mated with another that is also slightly out of spec in a way that will compensate rather than exaggerate the problem. The fastening points, whether they be bolts or welds no doubt have a little wiggle room which can be exploited to true things up as well. It just has to be implemented properly, and that means not by people eyeballing things. This is how you make manufacturing better.

I'm quite sure those passenger side problems were deemed acceptable because they work just fine. And I notice that there was comparison only with perfection, not with how similarly priced cars typically are delivered. Doesn't seem reasonable to me. Did you notice how perfunctory Sandy was about perfection on the driver's side? He expected perfection.

So ask yourself about what the mission is: how is it served by slowing things down to achieve perfection? I think what you always want is to be as fast as possible while being good enough, and working on getting better in all ways. But cosmetic perfection deserves to be way down on the list of necessities. It's a nice to have, but good enough will do.

I agree completely. We had some physical imperfections with both of our vehicles; which I chose to not even mention to my wife. I no longer see these imperfections and absolutely love both our P3 and LRX.

Sandy mentioned in a recent investor meeting that he sold all of his tesla stock to invest in “a different ev stock”. I hope he doesn’t go the way of electrek in this regard.

it also raises an issue with me of people who feel the need to sell all of their stake in any company. Unless you feel that the business or strategy has fundamentally diverged from your goals or beliefs. IMHO it’s much more sensible to trim the position. This makes it much easier to rebuild that position later whilst enjoying the financial freedoms that come with ‘cashing in’ on some of the gains/profits that have been recognized. As opposed to paying 30+% taxes on the entire position.

Selling all of a particular position creates a significant psychological barrier to re-entry, and appears to present a psychological conflict of objectivity.
 
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues? Does anybody care other than manufacturing wonks? My guess is that almost nobody even sees these details. I know I would be irritated for about five minutes and then never even notice it again.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked. There are tiny variations in stamped parts, and everything else. Probably the mega casting reduces one area of variation. Clearly there must be automatic choosing going on, where a part that's slightly out of spec gets mated with another that is also slightly out of spec in a way that will compensate rather than exaggerate the problem. The fastening points, whether they be bolts or welds no doubt have a little wiggle room which can be exploited to true things up as well. It just has to be implemented properly, and that means not by people eyeballing things. This is how you make manufacturing better.

I'm quite sure those passenger side problems were deemed acceptable because they work just fine. And I notice that there was comparison only with perfection, not with how similarly priced cars typically are delivered. Doesn't seem reasonable to me. Did you notice how perfunctory Sandy was about perfection on the driver's side? He expected perfection.

So ask yourself about what the mission is: how is it served by slowing things down to achieve perfection? I think what you always want is to be as fast as possible while being good enough, and working on getting better in all ways. But cosmetic perfection deserves to be way down on the list of necessities. It's a nice to have, but good enough will do.

Cannot agree with this assessment of the situation.

If anyone insists that this is a minor issue, then you need to open up your mind and see from out of the box.

In China, with constant attack from the public and media about supposed inferior build quality. It is somehow a fact now that Tesla is like VW, going mass market but yielding to other car makers, like Nio, on the luxury segment. It is also a implied drawback even for most of the buyers. "Yes, Tesla has built quality, but...."

If you focus on "but", then in China they sold every car they can ever built. but Nio right now position themselves to be like BBA of EV. It does not bold well with a car that is trying to compete with BBA and knock them out. If this trend continue down the road, it could only do more damage.

Like everybody else here, I feel Elon's word command authority and sincerity. Then here is what he said: " We want to achieve production perfection that if the gap is not consistent, then you measurement tool is wrong". This was said like what, 2 years ago?

Mission is critical, but you are marketing your product to the public, where most of the people care less about the mission like everyone here, including me. And to provide this type of product hurt you image, and hurt your mission. In comparison, if Starship has a gap inconsistency that does not affect the functionality, then nobody would care.

Please don't start with Tesla sold every car they made in China. That is simply not relevant. Or shall I say, they could sell more and speed up the mission more if this build quality has been eradicated? Don't agree with me? Thinks they sold every car possible in China? How about they could sell every possible S and X in China? Not being argumentative, just trying to make the point.

To defend the indefensible only makes our mission a cult mission.
 
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Cannot agree with this assessment of the situation.

If anyone insists that this is a minor issue, then you need to open up your mind and see from out of the box.

In China, with constant attack from the public and media about supposed inferior build quality. It is somehow a fact now that Tesla is like VW, going mass market but yielding to other car makers, like Nio, on the luxury segment. It is also a implyed drawback even for most of the buyers. "Yes, Tesla has built quality, but...."

Yes, if you focus on "but", then in China they sold every car they can ever built. but Nio right now position themselves to be like BBA of EV. It does not bold well with a car that is trying to compete with BBA and knock them out. If this trend continue down the road, it could only do more damage.

Like everybody else here, I feel Elon's word command authority and sincerity. Then here is what he said: " We want to achieve production perfection that if the gap is not consistent, then you measurement tool is wrong". This was said like what, 2 years ago?

Mission is critical, but you are market your product to the public, where most of the people care less about the mission like everyone here, including me. And to provide this type of product hurt you image, and hurt your mission.

Please don't start with Tesla sold every car they made in China. That is simply not relevant.

To defend the indefensible only make our mission a cult mission.
The problem with this argument is that many of us have had Teslas delivered with no problem panel gaps over the past eight years. And given the detractors' position that every flaw on a particular must be shouted from the rooftops to justify their position, it's just hard to swallow "this is a major problem".
 
Today was the deadline for the 100 million security deposit for Giga Berlin and Tesla stil has not paid. Deadline was extended by another 5 days. Not a good look on Tesla IMHO. Google Translate

In more interesting news, Tesla has finally made an application for cell production at Giga Berlin!
I was too quick, the application is only for a huge warehouse which is expected to be used for cell production eventually:
Google Translate
This might be a trick to get around environmentalists´concerns about water, hope theses tactics don´t backfire in the end.

This second article also has more details on the security deposit issue:

Security deposit done:
Google Translate
 
The problem with this argument is that many of us have had Teslas delivered with no problem panel gaps over the past eight years. And given the detractors' position that every flaw on a particular must be shouted from the rooftops to justify their position, it's just hard to swallow "this is a major problem".

The problem is because of this, Tesla is started to be positioned as VW of EV. Big volume, inferior quality. Maybe not here, maybe not between you and I, but in China, where they care about this stuff. And sadly, I don't blame them and I don't think it is only going to be China if this problem persist.

I cannot find it now from tweeter, but I remember yesterday Elon tweeted something like "constructive criticism is welcomed." We cannot blindly believe that anything, everything Tesla does is right. That hurts our mission, big time.
 
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues?
That door was so far out of allignment Sandy was surprised it wasn't binding when opened, and it might not seal well over time. This is not a minor panel gap discrepancy, it was very obvious in the video and would be even more so in person. The out of alignment tail lens might end up leaking. Tesla needs to be better than this, especially at the price point of the Model 3 but really at any price point.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked.
Tesla has been having these problems since the beginning, it should have been solved long ago, and at the very least should have been caught by QC.
 
The problem with this argument is that many of us have had Teslas delivered with no problem panel gaps over the past eight years.

Not relevant when too many flawed vehicles end up in the hands of reviewers and people like Munro. Remember Munro is a Tesla fan but is mystified that they are still dealing with these basic problems which he feels are easy to correct.
 
Is there some functional, as opposed to cosmetic, problem with these minor build issues? Does anybody care other than manufacturing wonks? My guess is that almost nobody even sees these details. I know I would be irritated for about five minutes and then never even notice it again.

And the fix is obvious and no doubt being worked. There are tiny variations in stamped parts, and everything else. Probably the mega casting reduces one area of variation. Clearly there must be automatic choosing going on, where a part that's slightly out of spec gets mated with another that is also slightly out of spec in a way that will compensate rather than exaggerate the problem. The fastening points, whether they be bolts or welds no doubt have a little wiggle room which can be exploited to true things up as well. It just has to be implemented properly, and that means not by people eyeballing things. This is how you make manufacturing better.

I'm quite sure those passenger side problems were deemed acceptable because they work just fine. And I notice that there was comparison only with perfection, not with how similarly priced cars typically are delivered. Doesn't seem reasonable to me. Did you notice how perfunctory Sandy was about perfection on the driver's side? He expected perfection.

So ask yourself about what the mission is: how is it served by slowing things down to achieve perfection? I think what you always want is to be as fast as possible while being good enough, and working on getting better in all ways. But cosmetic perfection deserves to be way down on the list of necessities. It's a nice to have, but good enough will do.

Actually, there is a functional problem.

Look at that door that Sandy pointed out. It's close enough that it almost rubs, and if that happens, paint will scrape off. I've seen this on MORE than one. I've had this problem on one of our cars, and over a month or two's time, it will rub down through the paint into the aluminum.


And ask yourself this:
How much do these dumb-ass fit and finish problems impede the mission by putting people off Teslas?
 
After watching the Munro video it seemed to me that the front right fender wasn't installed as well as it could have been. The leading edge was tight, the A-pillar mating was misaligned, and the door gap was slanted. The displacement shown by his measurements and a glance at the other panel edges appeared to indicate how rotation of the fender, ever so slight, during installation could have resulted in more acceptable gaps all around.

A casual glance could have resulted in a sticker with "gaps" or "alignment" printed on it being affixed to the offending panels and the vehicle being pulled to adjust when it exits the line. Munro was clear that this is basic stuff to address on an assembly line and something legacy auto makers have mastered a long time ago.

Tesla can isolate the issue (whether an individual or a machine) and modify the process (an alignment jig, gap inspection before turning screws, etc.?), and/or provide training and supervision, or, replacement (person or machine) if that is what ultimately solves the problem. They should be able to easily track who on the line missed it when that VIN rolled through both the assembly and the inspection stations.
 
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