Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Don´t know if this was posted, probably not going to be popular here...
Newsom's $1.5 billion plan for electric cars shifts rebate money to equity programs

I dont see this as being bad. Its to support clean cars 4 all. I looked into the details here:
Eligibility
So for a household with 4 people, buying a BEV, they get a $5,500 grant $2k for a home charger if their income is $100k and they cash in an old car. Sounds ok
for a household with 4 people to get the max $9,500 grant, they cant have an income over $58k.

This might have been bad timing 4 years ago with Tesla just offering the S and X, but with the 3 and Y, Tesla are moving down the price bracket a bit. Once Texas is up and running, I reckon the 3 and Y will get a price cut.

Average 2020 new car price was $38k. A new model 3 standard range is $37990, so $28,490 for our theoretical max-grant $58k income household... but then how many people in that situation or buying brand new cars anyway? i suspect most of that money will go to the >$100k households.

edit: found some interesting relevant stats:
(Automotive Trends: New Car Buyer Demographics 2020)
New Battery Electric (BEV) Buyers by Household Income
Under $50,000 20%
$50,000 to $74,999 16%
$75,000 to $99,000 4%
$100,000 and up 60%

and for sedans of all types:
Under $50,000 39%
$50,000 to $74,999 18%
$75,000 to $99,000 9%
$100,000 and up 34%

Looks like new car buyers are basically 2 categories: Wealthy people (who already buy a tesla!) and the 'under $50k income' crowd. Not much to be gained between the two price points. The question is, can tesla produce a car a $50k income person can afford before they saturate the top segment? I reckon yes.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

for a household with 4 people to get the max $9,500 grant, they cant have an income over $58k.

I'm sniffing opportunity here. If I retire at the end of this year, live off savings and Rule 55 money in 2022, then buy a Cybertruck in 2023, I get the 9,500?

 

[Featsbeyond50]

I dont see this as being bad. Its to support clean cars 4 all. I looked into the details here:
Eligibility
So for a household with 4 people, buying a BEV, they get a $5,500 grant $2k for a home charger if their income is $100k and they cash in an old car. Sounds ok
for a household with 4 people to get the max $9,500 grant, they cant have an income over $58k.

This might have been bad timing 4 years ago with Tesla just offering the S and X, but with the 3 and Y, Tesla are moving down the price bracket a bit. Once Texas is up and running, I reckon the 3 and Y will get a price cut.

Average 2020 new car price was $38k. A new model 3 standard range is $37990, so $28,490 for our theoretical max-grant $58k income household... but then how many people in that situation or buying brand new cars anyway? i suspect most of that money will go to the >$100k households.

edit: found some interesting relevant stats:
(Automotive Trends: New Car Buyer Demographics 2020)
New Battery Electric (BEV) Buyers by Household Income
Under $50,000 20%
$50,000 to $74,999 16%
$75,000 to $99,000 4%
$100,000 and up 60%

and for sedans of all types:
Under $50,000 39%
$50,000 to $74,999 18%
$75,000 to $99,000 9%
$100,000 and up 34%

Looks like new car buyers are basically 2 categories: Wealthy people (who already buy a tesla!) and the 'under $50k income' crowd. Not much to be gained between the two price points. The question is, can tesla produce a car a $50k income person can afford before they saturate the top segment? I reckon yes.

This is interesting. It's pretty common knowledge it's foolish to buy new before your wealthy enough to splurge. It make sense, but I didn't know, young and naive haven't figured this out so they spend on new cars.

 

[ZeApelido]

As we see in the composite image below, the "undercover" car spotted by drone this week is estimated to be approx. 14% longer than a Model Y:

I too often tell people that certain things are 14% bigger than they would think.

 

[aubreymcfato]

A custom Tesla Model S Cabriolet

View attachment 629969

By Ares Design in Modena, Italy.

Thought this would be useful for those of you wanting something to drive around in on your private islands. And a fun weekend read for the rest of us.

More pics and info in this Norwegian article: Skreddersøm fra Modena

Or a googly translation to English: Google Translate

I personally don't like it, but of this car is where I think I can go check It out.

 

[Singuy]

This is interesting. It's pretty common knowledge it's foolish to buy new before your wealthy enough to splurge. It make sense, but I didn't know, young and naive haven't figured this out so they spend on new cars.

It's pretty common knowledge that if you drink sugar water, eat at buffets, and bathe yourself in junk food all day you'll be fat. Yet we have an obesity epidemic.

Americans doesn't like to be inconvenienced by forgoing our indulgences okay? It's perfectly find to spend 1.5x your yearly salary on a new car.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

It's pretty common knowledge that if you drink sugar water, eat at buffets, and bathe yourself in junk food all day you'll be fat. Yet we have an obesity epidemic.

Americans doesn't like to be inconvenienced by forgoing our indulgences okay? It's perfectly find to spend 1.5x your yearly salary on a new car.

But you're painting with broad strokes. The data cliffski posted shows one segment of the the population screwing up.

Btw, I eat junk food all day but I could be one of those 50+ year old dudes on Youtube pushing testosterone supplements (though the only thing I take is creatine).

 

[Singuy]

But you're painting with broad strokes. The data cliffski posted shows one segment of the the population screwing up.

Btw, I eat junk food all day but I could be one of those 50+ year old dudes on Youtube pushing testosterone supplements (though the only thing I take is creatine).

The amount of people who are classified as obese in the U.S mirrors the amount of people who are screwing up based on the statistics you showed above. Of course not everyone is fat or buy cars beyond their means. However the number is always shocking even though like you said, it's common knowledge.

 

[MC3OZ]

There's been very litte speculation about the purpose of the of the new steel-frame building currently under construction on the immediate North end of the Model Y assembly building. So let's speculate.

I suggest that Tesla already has all the major component making facilities in place (Model Y deliveries have already begun across China so we know they're building cars). What they don't have yet is a novel, high-speed, efficient, and low-cost method of loading their production onto car carriers before being trucked to delivery centers.

I speculate that the new building in question is a high-tech car-park of sorts, but with the ability to sort and deliver 6-8 car batches of vehicles suitable for loading onto transports, as follows:

• Tesla produces 3 variants of Model Y, with 2 interiors, and 5 body colors
• speculating that "Performance" Y is only available with white interior (advice?)
  
• that implies 25 combinations of options for Model Y, or 25 separate 'bins'
• a car sorting/delivery structure would need at least 25 lines fed by the factory

Do we see any of this in steel? Let's look at 2:59 Jason Yang's Jan 21, 201 video:

• Building is of exceptionally sturdy construction (lot's of steel)
• it appears there might be truck bays on the North side (closest to camera)
• there are 12.5 of those 'bay' looking openings (one 'bay' is half-width)
• if each bay is backed by 2 lines of sorted cars, that's 25 lines
• bay width appears to support this (compare to mobile cranes for scale)

View attachment 629980

Of course (and I repeat), all this is speculation. So far:

• no evidence yet of any elevator structures as required to move 2 ton vehicles from top floor to bottom (possible at top-right of image is an external structure)
  
• throughput would have to be very quick:
  • appears to be length to buffer ~32 cars in each bin, or 800 total
    
  • that's about 1 day's worth of production @ 275K units/year
• not obvious yet how batch sorting for 6-8 cars per trailer would work, although construction continues on the North side.

Not saying this will happen; am saying this this the kind of 'out-of-the-box' solution I've learned to expect from Tesla engineering.

Cheers!

From memory this area is where the ramp used to be, whatever used to come up / down the ramp might come in / out of this building.
It could be parts in, and/or cars out.

One advantage I can see with a building is a potential for dual level loading, driving cars onto the top and bottom levels of a carrier at the same time. That in turn means a quicker turn around for the carrier, the truck driver can be one loader, they need some sort of specialist driver to load the say top level cars on. (I'm not sure if the building structure supports this).

I can't see why cars can't all line up for loading with some very precise version of smart summon.

I did think they might be able to use land East of the new bridge in the old water melon farm for logistics, but land in Shanghai is relatively expensive. No reason why they can't build another 1 or 2 of these over in the East if needed.

I've always expected multi-level car parks at Fremont and Shanghai, that uses less land and keeps the cars cleaner.

The far east might be a good location for a service and delivery center, that is a better use than a logistics car park,

 

[Dave EV]

Well that's strange, we were told that Sandy is intent on bashing Tesla because he sold all his shares...must have bought back in, until he finds something he doesn't like, then I guess he sold again. Hard to keep track.

Hah, nice one. Seriously though, it does show that Tesla can build cars to tight tolerances, but there are too many cases of them building cars to wide tolerances. Right now while they have more demand than supply, it's not a big deal. But at some point in the future, their factories will be able to exceed demand, at which point improving overall build tolerances will be important. I would argue that it's important now while Tesla is building their reputation, as it's exceedingly difficult to turn a reputation around.

More free advertising. 100k world record attempt today. My man missed it by 13 seconds. Could you imagine?!?

View attachment 630074

I love seeing EVs (Teslas especially) being used as pace vehicles for running and cycling events. I've always wondered why the Tour de France, for example, insists on using gas/diesel vehicles as support vehicles. It's no fun to breathe car exhaust while pushing high exertion levels and it's great marketing exposure, too.

 

[RobStark]

Weekend O.T.

This rich guy wanted to live at a Gas Station.

Texas Gas Station Mansion offered for sale at $8M

 

[2daMoon]

But, is the guy selling it to build a mansion based on a charging station?

 

[H Mak]

Just wait until the Cybertruck is out. Every athlete/musician around will be driving one.

And Premier League footballers. They will lap it up. Once the first footballer turns up at the training ground in a Cybertruck it will be splashed all over the tabloids here in the UK.

 

[15Peter20]

And Premier League footballers. They will lap it up. Once the first footballer turns up at the training ground in a Cybertruck it will be splashed all over the tabloids here in the UK.

Ugh. I might just cancel my order now.

 

[abasile]

I'm sniffing opportunity here. If I retire at the end of this year, live off savings and Rule 55 money in 2022, then buy a Cybertruck in 2023, I get the 9,500?

The eligibility criteria for the "Clean Vehicle Assistance Program" are here: Eligibility - Clean Vehicle Assistance Program

A number of middle class California families, plus some retired Teslanaires, should qualify. The income threshold appears to be identical to the federal Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) threshold. If you have a spouse and three kids, it is about $122k. At that income level, the point-of-sale rebate amount appears to be $5k.

Combined with a likely $7500 federal tax credit or rebate, this would make it possible for a family to purchase a base Model 3, with included Autopilot, for only about $27,000 before sales tax and registration. Add in the fuel and maintenance savings, plus the safety benefits, and this could be a very sensible purchase for many.

At $40k, the base Cybertruck should also qualify. However, I'm happy that our intended purchase of a tri-motor Cybertruck won't be eligible for a state rebate because I'd hate to be tempted to apply.

 

[Nocturnal]

Instead, he’s asking lawmakers to spend big in two other areas: building a large network of vehicle charging and refueling stations, and increasing subsidies to help lower-income buyers afford the higher price tag of electric models.

Publicly funded charging stations would help new Tesla owners if Tesla were to switch to CCS in North America. This would give Tesla owners more charging choices and also reduce Tesla's cost burden of SC expansion. The feds and other states might also spend on charging networks, so this might be a good move.

Just the attention and visibility will help Tesla move cars. I wouldn't mind Tesla moving to CCS and their own connector (assuming there is value to keeping the Tesla version at all) but I'm positive that I will like the Tesla stations better than what Papa Biden builds us. Assuming he isn't smart enough to just write Tesla a very large check to build them. Hey, miracles happen...

 

[Mo City]

Joe's latest Giga Austin drone video. The first 5 mins is pure gold. An absolute must watch!

 

[MXWing]

What is "money on paper"? How is that distinguishable from "money"?

Giving investing advice to friends and family ends in grief and broken friendships far more often than in happiness.

It's just semantics between "realized" and "unrealized" gains.

At least it was anyway.

Biden and Yellen are looking to take your unrealized gains to fund their stimmie checks.

Source:
'Act big' now to save economy, worry about debt later, Yellen says in Treasury testimony

 

[MikeC]

Which one of you here is Nancy?

 

[UncaNed]

More Sandy Monroe, Model 3 Frunk. His positive assessment of the rate of Tesla change.

I'll delete this if somebody tells me it was already posted here with the link.