Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mo City]

Any new EV credit would likely be in the massive infrastructure bill the dems want to do.

And would likely pass via reconciliation.

And Manchin has actively supported EV credits in the past FWIW

That said, the infrastructure bill will be huge, expensive, and likely months away from passing if it does at all.

Manchin has a history of being a yo yo, particularly when he knows he's the decisive vote.

It's near-certain there will be a huge "infrastructure" bill passed this year. My point in responding was if anyone thinks MORE than some kind of extension of the $7,500 rebate is possible, they should think again. Would not shock me if the new rebate is less than $7,500.

The 50-50 Senate means 2021 is the year of Joe Manchin. He knows this and will make sure everyone else does also.

 

[ZsoZso]

The Deep Dive: Episode 6 | Dalhousie University​

In Episode 6, Dr. Saini speaks with renowned Dalhousie scientist, Dr. Jeff Dahn, about his transformative work in lithium-ion battery technology, his partnership with Tesla, and his commitment to teaching and student mentorship.

You can hear the history of the Tesla collaboration from Jeff.

 

[Krugerrand]

This is a very real impact from climate change. Hops in particular are sensitive to climate, nearly as much as grapes. Sure you can make beer with just grain but you won't enjoy it.

I'm a pacifist myself, though I dabble in being a jerk here and there. That said, if beer, coffee, and wine become impossible to source or just cost prohibitive, I will fully support any climate denier being given the Marie Antoinette treatment. I'm not willing to deal with people under forced sobriety.

I’ll have moonshine.

 

[MC3OZ]

We have direct information from the environmental Minister about the timeline for Giga Berlin permit approval from his latest committee meeting.

People who have direct responsibility talked

There is no need to rely on media reports in that respect

Did the minister say anything specific about the timeline for cell production permits?

I'm not blaming the German regulatory system, Tesla could have applied for the permits earlier.

I'm trying to determine whether cell production at Austin will be happening before Berlin.

People keep asking what is happening with the Fremont 4680 cells, Tesla has told us they are being shipped to Berlin, and that seems like a good interim solution.

 

[MikeAtkinson]

At the start of the year I did an evaluation based on product roadmap, production plans, competition, margins, expected free cash flow and various other factors that a fair market price for TSLA was in the $700 - $900 range. With reasonable execution and absent vast improvements by the competition and with no contribution from Tesla network their revenues would grow by 70% and free cash flow by a bit less than 100%. This would continue for several years. So that by the end of the year a fair market price would be $1350 - $1900.

Since then execution has been excellent (not just reasonable), the roadmap still looks good, production plans seem ahead of schedule, competition has been a big disappointment and margins on the Y look very good. So I would now put the end of year TSLA price at $1600 - $2200 and for the end of 2021 as $3200 - $4400. Similarly for 2022, after that I expect Tesla and TSLA to grow more slowly, but still much faster than their peers (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon).

If this evaluation is correct then the current share price is not high and even $2000 is only ahead by a few months, and being at such a price could continue without a significant drop until after Q4 earnings. A share price of $3000 in the next few months would be ahead by a year or so and one of $4000 by 18 months in both cases I would expect a correction back to something around $2000 by the end of the year.

For the share price to reach $4000 or above might happen due to a short squeeze and S&P 500 inclusion, but to stay there would be irrational. However "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" applies in this case.

My current thoughts on strategy are to sell 1% of my holdings at $3500 and then another 1% for each $200 raise above that. The on the way down buy back shares. As I plan to buy a house in the next year it doesn't matter too much if I am left holding some cash, my UK capital gains tax allowance would allow selling about $30000 worth of shares tax free, which would be enough for a deposit on the house. That however is second best as I really plan to HODL with most of my shares.

The inclusion spike is still occurring!

I had assumed a few months ago that benchmark funds would buy before or within a few days of S&P 500 inclusion, in which case the share price would spike over 700 and probably over 800.

It turned out that benchmark funds mostly decided to wait, now they are being forced to buy with FOMO. So the inclusion spike is still going on. I would not be surprised if TSLA peaks at over 1000. I think that the share price will drop from its peak, probably sometime around Q4 earnings, back to between 600 and 700.

I'm normally pretty bad at short term predictions, so the above is probably completely wrong.

Someone asked for year end share price predictions, my last two (above) have been fairly prescient so I'll try again, get it totally wrong and loose my winning streak.

I think there will be a peak of about $3,500 around Q4 earnings (mid-January 2022), year end will be in the midst of the run-up so about $2,500.

The reason for this is a mixture of FSD, robotaxi, Model 2 and production ramp. By mid December analysts will have plugged Q4 and year production and delivery estimates into their models and come up with blow-out expectations, there will be clear paths to double production in 2022 and again in 2023, it will also be obvious that the energy business is growing even faster than automotive. With FSD at or near level 5 and Tesla network roll-out occurring even if not operational, analysts will be starting to make estimates of robotaxi revenue.

After this I think the stock will be overvalued and will take a year or two to catch up, so a fall down to under $2,000 then spending a couple of years wandering around between $2,000 and $4,000 while Tesla's earnings increase enough to justify its valuation.

 

[NooB_cat]

This thread is full of folks that bought low and are dealing with tolerating a lower paper gains, though it sounds like the people who have been here for a while have tolerated being underwater and survived. They give me strength, whereas I have learned how to cope with buying high and not flinching at my paper losses, and to keep throwing money into a dark dark hole with no end in sight. It's exhilarating but it may get old when the shut power off if it keeps up. I still have good kidneys (one for sale and the other on margin) and I'm going to have like 5 kidneys if it turns around. Then who will be laughing? Me.... awash in kidneys up to my eyeballs! hahahaha! Wait where are y'all going?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372649200383524865

 

[avoigt]

Did the minister say anything specific about the timeline for cell production permits?

I'm not blaming the German regulatory system, Tesla could have applied for the permits earlier.

I'm trying to determine whether cell production at Austin will be happening before Berlin.

People keep asking what is happening with the Fremont 4680 cells, Tesla has told us they are being shipped to Berlin, and that seems like a good interim solution.

Yes. Tesla considers applying for the battery factory in a space of the already erected hall.

There is no hurry for Tesla to file the battery production application. Kato road will do the job until 2022

If you want the latest follow me on twitter since I am not often here and don't repeat what I already reporte

 

[MikeAtkinson]

I'm trying to determine whether cell production at Austin will be happening before Berlin.

Almost certain that Austin will be first.

The cell and battery segment of the factory is being built now. They are really getting a move on, at this rate the building shell will be up end-April and production start about September.

 

[Discoducky]

Max Pain was still at $650, but a quick look at the chart (yes, it's always a snapshot of previous day's close, I know), indicated still that between $680 and $685 would be the most profitable

Of course the event-horizon the of the 10Y singularity might prove too much even for the mightiest of the MM's, we shall see!

I do believe we could fo 10% either way tomorrow or somewhere between the two. I am quietly confident that the 31x cc's I have at $720 and $780 strikes will expire worthless... But I won't cry if they don't ether

What are your thoughts for next week?

Cc's at 750 and 800?

Puts at 620 and 650? Buy or sell?

 

[SpaceCash]

Not trying to drive the conversation OT so just a quick update on my 3
Insurance is calling it totalled and is offering me either
- $18K and the car back as is
Or
- $58K and no car back

I paid cash and have no outstanding liens.
Honestly pretty reasonable options. Gonna sleep on it. Lusting after my Plaid X and considering just taking the 58K and throwing it on the Xlines.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the 3 is actually more fun to drive than any X due to ground clearance, but ground clearance is exactly what screwed me here in the ROCKY Mointains.

 

[MP3Mike]

Insurance is calling it totalled and is offering me either
- $18K and the car back as is
Or
- $58K and no car back

Wow, so they think the salvage value of the vehicle is $40k, and that the repairs would cost more than $40k? Wow...

 

[Yuha]

The Deep Dive: Episode 6 | Dalhousie University​

In Episode 6, Dr. Saini speaks with renowned Dalhousie scientist, Dr. Jeff Dahn, about his transformative work in lithium-ion battery technology, his partnership with Tesla, and his commitment to teaching and student mentorship.

You can hear the history of the Tesla collaboration from Jeff.

Nice interview, worth watching. It includes a story of how Jeff came to work with Tesla:

"I had an industrial partnership for 20 years with 3M from 1996 to 2016, and around 2014 Elon Musk made his announcement that he would be making the gigafactory in Nevada, and I just thought this is absolutely fantastic because it's going to bring lithium-ion battery production to North America in a huge way and up until that point, you know, the majority of cells were made in Asia.
So I just said, you know, I have to be part of this, and I contacted some people at Tesla and said, look my contract with the 3M is going to expire in summer of 2016 and I'd like to work with you guys because your mission really is what I'm interested in and what I believe in.
So I approached them, they didn't approach me, and they checked me out and agreed to go ahead, and I tell my students, you know, the students that were here in the 3M era and then transitioned to the Tesla era, they and I realized it's like Dorothy landing in Oz, we're not in Kansas anymore because the work rate and the passion are just incredibly different working with Tesla compared to 3M, and it's been fantastic I must say."

 

[2daMoon]

Damn son, that's some Sun Tzu stuff right there. You are dangerous my friend. I like it. It makes my decisions look super smart.... hope you are right cause I'm drinking this kool aid all day!

Just to put all the cards on the table, I'm retiring tomorrow and in all honesty am going into it living a little dangerously.

FWIW, I did wear a Solving the Money Problem "Don't bet against Elon" t-shirt to the luncheon the company held yesterday to wish me farewell.

It wouldn't have been possible without my getting on the TSLA train in 11/2019. I ain't rich yet, but could be modestly comfortable for many, many years with what is there. The bet has been placed based upon the hand I'm holding. You got to know when to HODL 'em and know when to fold 'em. It looks like a good hand to me.

My thanks go out to this forum, Stephen Mark Ryan, and Teslarati for keeping me on the straight and narrow, and especially to Elon's vision and tenacity for making this possible.

 

[2daMoon]

Not trying to drive the conversation OT so just a quick update on my 3
Insurance is calling it totalled and is offering me either
- $18K and the car back as is
Or
- $58K and no car back

I paid cash and have no outstanding liens.
Honestly pretty reasonable options. Gonna sleep on it. Lusting after my Plaid X and considering just taking the 58K and throwing it on the Xlines.
I have a sneaking suspicion that the 3 is actually more fun to drive than any X due to ground clearance, but ground clearance is exactly what screwed me here in the ROCKY Mointains.

I've read that any Tesla VIN registered with a Salvage title may be denied use of Superchargers. Might want to look into whether that will affect your decision.

 

[Dreadnought]

JHC on a crutch, that guy's tiring to listen to, he talks like his hair's on fire...

He's got 4 million subscribers and the video has more than 800k views meanwhile. He was bashing EVs on more than one occasion. With this kind of reach, I found his level of ignorance even more annoying than his style. Good to hear that he changed his tune.

Here is a sample of seekingalpha.com, the most concentrated hub of Tesla shorts/writers, also a PARTNER of CNBC.com

This is about what Dr. Lomborg, he has been speaking and writing about climate science for almost 20 years, said about electric vehicles in a recent interview:

Quote “So the reality is that these cars will typically, over their lifetime, cut maybe 10 tons of CO2. Now, to most people that doesn't mean anything. But actually, on the standard marketplaces for CO2 emissions in the U.S, you could cut a similar amount for $60 right now. So spending $7,500 on subsidies to get that amount over even ten years is a really bad idea”. So you can cut 10 tons of CO2 for $60 ? Elon can give $100M to anyone to remove/suck CO2 from our atmosphere in a recent tweet/news.

Bjorn Lomborg says subsidies for electric cars are "really bad".


Read the Tesla shorts’ comments in this article:

I had to post our Tesla hot video using beta 8.2 to educate/fight back their garbage

Tesla's (TSLA) Autopilot lands in the spotlight again

This tells me that emission certificates are still way too cheap.

 

[Joe F]

I’ll have moonshine.

What, not catnip?

 

[Krugerrand]

What, not catnip?

Catnip flavored moonshine, duh.

 

[buttershrimp]

Just to put all the cards on the table, I'm retiring tomorrow and in all honesty am going into it living a little dangerously.

FWIW, I did wear a Solving the Money Problem "Don't bet against Elon" t-shirt to the luncheon the company held yesterday to wish me farewell.

It wouldn't have been possible without my getting on the TSLA train in 11/2019. I ain't rich yet, but could be modestly comfortable for many, many years with what is there. The bet has been placed based upon the hand I'm holding. You got to know when to HODL 'em and know when to fold 'em. It looks like a good hand to me.

My thanks go out to this forum, Stephen Mark Ryan, and Teslarati for keeping me on the straight and narrow, and especially to Elon's vision and tenacity for making this possible.

You are straight gangsta

 

[ggies07]

Nm....

 

[StealthP3D]

This is a very real impact from climate change. Hops in particular are sensitive to climate, nearly as much as grapes. Sure you can make beer with just grain but you won't enjoy it.

I've put up with a lot of crazy sugar on this thread today without busting a sweat, but I'm going to have to put my foot down on this crazy BS.

It ain't "beer" if it don't not got no hops in there! That's one fact you're not gonna be switching my mind about!