Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

Looks like Friday $700c are back under $8. Might reload near $6 if we drift lower.

 

[15Peter20]

Yes, thanks. We know all about that. Been going on for years. Not news here. We’re VERY informed here. Like VERY. If you’re looking to educate en masse, you’re on the wrong ship.

Here’s a suggestion: sit back and simply read (preferably for a few weeks) what posters discuss here. Perhaps even peruse other threads where education can be lacking. Then jump in and add (preferably succinctly) if we’ve missed a point.

Per my earlier post: I highly recommend Norwalk79 reads this thread from the very beginning.

It is well worth taking the time to do so. They will understand how the FUD ebbs and flows (mostly flows).

 

[Krugerrand]

Ford exec Mike Levine getting mouthy on Twitter, but Ross Gerber to the rescue. Not linking the article but feel free to google Ford exec criticizes Tesla’s beta software as vaporware.

 

[kbM3]

Tesla will have run out of things to do with money....including stock buybacks, approximate completion of superchargers, megachargers, service centers around the globe. Plus Elon & Tesla would have to run out of ideas. Then, yes.


it’s Tesla, so always!

Actually Tesla’s largest money need might be to build out it’s own Robo-taxi fleet, or Megapack installations... High capital outlay, but stupendous recurring revenue. Of course after growth slows, cash flow goes Plaid, but probably not this decade.

 

[Nocturnal]

Ford exec Mike Levine getting mouthy on Twitter, but Ross Gerber to the rescue. Not linking the article but feel free to google Ford exec criticizes Tesla’s beta software as vaporware.

It was hilarious that as soon as he started getting pushback he resorted to "Hey it's Saturday don't waste a nice day on Twitter". Lame.

Actually Tesla’s largest money need might be to build out it’s own Robo-taxi fleet, or Megapack installations... High capital outlay, but stupendous recurring revenue. Of course after growth slows, cash flow goes Plaid, but probably not this decade.

Tesla has easy access to capital via the markets but when they get to the point where they have a working Robotaxi software people will be begging Tesla to take their money.

 

[SN_8]

Agreed, it would be great (for folks like this one, should they actually be sincere) if they take a week or a month break from posting and go back a year or two in the thread and read up to current.

I agree with your overall sentiment, but the thought of someone doing this made me literally lol. Not just for the time it would take to start reading from a year back, but also because of how the constant changing of sentiment on this board would look if you read an entire year's worth of posts in rapid succession.

 

[Unpilot]

Not linking any of it...but man the FUD is thick.
VW is going to beat Tesla...blah blah
China will shut down Tesla...blah blah
Tesla stock may be higher but it is not out of the woods...blah blah.

But the doozy is.."is Lucid the best ev stock"

 

[15Peter20]

I agree with your overall sentiment, but the thought of someone doing this made me literally lol. Not just for the time it would take to start reading from a year back, but also because of how the constant changing of sentiment on this board would look if you read an entire year's worth of posts in rapid succession.

If you speed read then the sentiment sort of averages out, a bit like mixing all your plasticine colours together.

Maybe not a great analogy unless the colour of the mood is bowel-movement brown....

 

[SN_8]

If you speed read then the sentiment sort of averages out, a bit like mixing all your plasticine colours together.

Maybe not a great analogy unless the colour of the mood is bowel-movement brown....

There is an emoji for that.

 

[Knightshade]

I view L3 as safe, but may get confused and need help from the driver (so safety interventions < 1 / 500k miles, but nuisance interventions much higher). If it weren’t safe on highway, you couldn’t afford to read a book, because human context switching is incredibly slow.

So if I’m right, L3 City would be very valuable even if a nuisance intervention occurred once per week.

While human context switching is slow, you have a lot more time to respond to:

"I noticed the rain is getting heavier and I'm having camera obscuration on the front right fender cam, I need to drop back to L2 and have you be "in control"- even going 75 on the highway.

Plus you generally have much better far-away visibility on highways and simply have far less "different" things that can happen on a controlled-access divided highway that the car would find itself unable to handle within its L3 capabilities.



Versus how quickly you need to react to "previously invisible kid sprints out between 2 parked cars to cross the street" even going just 35 in the city.... or the myriad larger number of different things that CAN happen on city streets the L3 system might not handle and you need to notice and react too sooner than that slow human handover time you mention.


City driving having vastly more weird/edge cases is exactly why we've had NoA for years now on the highway but even L2 city driving is only now in very limited beta use among owners.

(this is probably enough in the weeds now though it should go to one of the topics here though- or a new one there-

AI, Autopilot, & Autonomous/FSD

Discussion about AI, Tesla Bot, Tesla Autopilot (AP), the promise of Full Self Driving (FSD), as well as other Autonomous Vehicles.

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[scaesare]

Capacity at Fremont last year was 90k.

Why would you need volume of 100k Plus to justify a European line?

Because if Fremont is supporting European sales then without an increase in volume you end up with 2 factories at <50k/yr production which may not be feasible?

Unless you are taking issue with the colloquial use of "100k", in which case that just seems like quibbling.

 

[Big Time]

I think after I become absurdly rich from TSLA I’m going to devote my life to animal conservation.
Travel the world helping animals in need, I’ll pick them up and bring them to the solar pen, and let them recover from their ailments and release when the time is right. Of course for the non potty trained animals the pens will be lined with pictures of Gordo and toilet boy!

 

[2daMoon]

I agree with your overall sentiment, but the thought of someone doing this made me literally lol. Not just for the time it would take to start reading from a year back, but also because of how the constant changing of sentiment on this board would look if you read an entire year's worth of posts in rapid succession.

Yeah, it probably is Masochistic behavior at best.

Still, I did go back a year and read forward before I started posting. It was helpful for me to get a feel for the tone and content.

Though, in an instant-gratification and Twitter-driven world many may not see the potential value for themselves in doing so.

My idea of instant gratification is finding a chair in the couch cushions this morning. HODL!

 

[15Peter20]

I think after I become absurdly rich from TSLA I’m going to devote my life to animal conservation.
Travel the world helping animals in need, I’ll pick them up and bring them to the solar pen, and let them recover from their ailments and release when the time is right. Of course for the non potty trained animals the pens will be lined with pictures of Gordo and toilet boy!

We need a swear jar for mentioning any of them.

 

[woodisgood]

We need a swear jar for mentioning any of them.

Better yet, a share jar.

 

[goinfraftw]

Miami Mayor Floats Privately Financed Tunnel System

City of Miami Mayor Francis Suarez returned a believer from a Las Vegas tour of Elon Musk’s Boring Company. Suarez’s pitch now to commissioners and the community at large expanded from a small tunnel under Brickell Avenue to an entire tunnel system running north-south through the city. Under...

www.nbcmiami.com

"Suarez says the company estimates the price would be around $10 million per mile."

 

[winfield100]

Tesla will have run out of things to do with money....including stock buybacks, approximate completion of superchargers, megachargers, service centers around the globe (Solar System)(FTFY a bit). Plus Elon & Tesla would have to run out of ideas. Then, yes.


it’s Tesla, so always!

somewhat OT
But that should say "around the Solar System)

March 3rd was SN10 launch, and landing (and tiny tiny hop)
March 24 (tomorrow) is SN11 launch
(3 freakin' weeks turnaround!!)

they will need at least 1,000 of these 400ft tall (when 2nd stage attached) over at least 20+ years.
So Elon will need and use a lot of things to do with money
(have watched launches since late 1950's, things have definately improved from rockets spinning like Catherine wheels shooting fire everywhere)

(accumulating a lot slower with DCA and HODL'ing)

 

[insaneoctane]

Yes, Tesla will remain battery constrained for the next few years. It looks like Tesla will manufacture 500-1000 GWh of cells and buy a similar amount from CATL, LG and Panasonic. Of those only about 500 GWh will be used in vehicles leaving 500-1500 GWh for stationary storage. Even if Tesla sold 10 million vehicles (too high in my opinion) with an average of 100kWh per vehicle (again too high), i.e. all are long range, many of the cells that Tesla obtains from suppliers would be LFP which are only suitable for short range packs or stationary storage.

Also I think when Elon says "near future" he is thinking about the next year or two, not 2025.

Revenue and earnings per kWh might not be less for stationary storage, powerwalls have a high gross margin and both them and utility scale storage benefit from virtual power plant and autobidder income. Powerwalls are also mainly sold as a package with solar, which greatly increases the revenue per kWh. This means that ARK's assumption that Tesla would prioritize car sales over energy storage is suspect, particularly in scenarios where FSD does not work or that the robotaxi network is not launched.

All this shows the limitations of ARK's Monte Carlo model, they seem to make the assumption that there are enough batteries for however many vehicles the model spits out, but no more. They could instead have tried to model battery production and then allocated those batteries between vehicles and stationary storage, according to some extra model parameters.

Finally energy is more than stationary storage, ARK do not model solar which is known to be ramping up rapidly.

Anyone have Tesla’s public predictions (or reasonably inferred) about cell capacity? Your statement that their automotive cell capacity only requires 25% of their cells seems different than everything I’ve read...if true, ARK sure missed the boat when they literally ignored Tesla Energy,no?

 

[tschmidty]

Actually Tesla’s largest money need might be to build out it’s own Robo-taxi fleet, or Megapack installations... High capital outlay, but stupendous recurring revenue. Of course after growth slows, cash flow goes Plaid, but probably not this decade.

So I really like the idea of Tesla owning and operating Megapack installations for a guaranteed recurring revenue stream and not just an upfront sale. I really think this could be a huge driver of Tesla's growth if they can get past battery manufacturing restraints.

But I really don't see the paradigm shift in human behavior that will make robotaxi revenue be some game changer for Tesla. People like their cars and like the control of having it always there and available. I mean people drive around in huge SUVs when a compact car would make a lot more sense for a lot of reasons. They stick with ICE cars because they need it for long trips when they never drive more than 30 miles at a time.
There is a lot of resistance to even the idea of owning an electric car that is slowly being overcome, and that is just changing how you fuel it. The idea that people will give up their cars en masse to take an Uber is just not probable to me. What about a robotaxi is going to be so much more compelling than an uber? Don't have to talk to a driver?
There may be a generational shift as the technology matures and younger people are more likely to embrace the idea. But I haven't seen a single argument here or anywhere else that has me convinced that people are going to change their behavior overnight because robotaxis are now a thing. People aren't rational and changing human behavior has a lot of inertia.

 

[ggies07]

There may be a generational shift as the technology matures and younger people are more likely to embrace the idea. But I haven't seen a single argument here or anywhere else that has me convinced that people are going to change their behavior overnight because robotaxis are now a thing. People aren't rational and changing human behavior has a lot of inertia.

It's all about the lettuce. As soon as it's cheaper for them to switch, they will. They'll be able to pocket that $200-600/month car payment for other things....