Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[M|S|M MYP]

We do know a little bit extra: The former S/X lines have now been completely merged into a single line, and apparently the saved floor space in the factory as been reallocated for something else.

Can't remember if we've heard what the "something else" might be: Paging @MP3Mike

Cheers!

Saved the floor space for another Tent

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Not trying to nitpick, just actually curious, where did they say that? I didn't notice it in the press release, and they didn't say that in the last ER call, but I might have missed something.

I was wondering that too, because as I recalled they said “50+% for this year, and that’s all we’re giving you.“ I think it comes from that hit piece article by Lora on CNBS which states this:

Musk and Kirkhorn declined to give specific guidance for 2021 deliveries during that call but said they would offer more clarity during the second quarter. Kirkhorn said on the call: “We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021.”

The link there is to a Jan 27 article about the Q1 earnings call. That states:

The fuzzy guidance also comes after Musk fanned hopes during an October earnings call. Asked by an analyst whether Tesla aimed to deliver 840,000 to 1 million vehicles in 2021, based on its factories’ current maximum capacity, Musk responded the target was “in that vicinity,” while another Tesla executive said the company would provide guidance next quarter.

They said on the October call they’d provide 2021 guidance “next quarter” (i.e. In January), which they did: 50% or more. The assertion by the not-at-all-biased “journalist” that they‘ll give more specific guidance is likely due to her lack of reading comprehension.

 

[stealthyc]

I was wondering that too, because as I recalled they said “50+% for this year, and that’s all we’re giving you.“ I think it comes from that hit piece article by Lora on CNBS which states this:

Musk and Kirkhorn declined to give specific guidance for 2021 deliveries during that call but said they would offer more clarity during the second quarter. Kirkhorn said on the call: “We continue to expect a long-term volume CAGR of 50%, of which we may materially exceed this in 2021.”

The link there is to a Jan 27 article about the Q1 earnings call. That states:

The fuzzy guidance also comes after Musk fanned hopes during an October earnings call. Asked by an analyst whether Tesla aimed to deliver 840,000 to 1 million vehicles in 2021, based on its factories’ current maximum capacity, Musk responded the target was “in that vicinity,” while another Tesla executive said the company would provide guidance next quarter.

They said on the October call they’d provide 2021 guidance “next quarter” (i.e. In January), which they did: 50% or more. The assertion by the not-at-all-biased “reporter” that they‘ll give more specific guidance is likely due to her lack of reading comprehension.

Thanks, that aligns with my memory of things. I much prefer this vague and somewhat sandbagging method of guidance, and I hope they continue. Exact numbers serve no beneficial purpose.

 

[Yuri_G]

Tesla would likely crack the top 20 in auto manufacturers if they can make and deliver 1 million cars. Incredible considering It took about 10 years to go from 0 manufactured cars to where we are now.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1250209436989370370

 

[Pezpunk]

this is simultaneously Tesla's best quarter ever, and the worst quarter Tesla will ever have moving forward.

 

[dgodfrey]

Hey!
What you’re supposed to be posting is the band warming up.

Maybe this time I can perform my bassoon solo, unless he calls for another G-D polka.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also agree the miniscule rate hike should not impact much to company's growth. I attribute recent hi tech/hi growth stock sell-off to lofty valuation, and those already saw huge gain locked in profits.

The U.S. dollar will be diluted by about 5% total if Congress passes the 2nd "infrastructure" spending bill.

Telsa's inflation hedge in Bitcoin currently has increased their cash position by about 5.9%. Winning.

Thanks, Zach. U da Master of Coin.

Cheers!

 

[ByeByeJohnny]

The U.S. dollar will be diluted by about 5% total if Congress passes the 2nd "infrastructure" spending bill.

And yet the dollar seems to do fine lately. Haven't checked that many currency's but it does seem to be up since January against the Euro, the Yen, whatever the chinese are using and several others.

So it's not like spending €5 trillion in these latest two bills wrecked the value.

Certainly helping the value of my trading account.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The U.S. dollar will be diluted by about 5% total if Congress passes the 2nd "infrastructure" spending bill.

Strange then that we've seen such big gains against the EUR this last month we've been discussing it. And +.15% today too. Weird.

 

[SN_8]

GoJo and I were right all along! Most of y'all had no faith and just copied Troy's homework. Please join me in congratulating him on his first tiprank star...which should be coming sometime...

Let's not go overboard... first he needs a half star. Congrats Gordon. You deserve it!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Not sure how any legit analyst or tesla bull can't figure out that 1 million for 2021 has a very high probability percentage at this point. When you factor in the headwinds for this quarter,

- No S/X production
- 2 down days of Fremont production due to Giga press fire
- 3-4 down days of Fremont Model 3 production due to parts shortage
- Chinese New Year taking away about 4-5 days of production
- Q1 has 1(or is it 2) less production days than any other quarter

If all those headwinds weren't there, this would have been a 205-210k production quarter. As long as S/X ramps up decently in Q2 (I'm thinking 12-15 P/D), then 215-220k should be in the cards for total P/D for Q2.

With the caveat that Tesla has to keep executing of course. But I mean come on.....look at how they just executed this quarter

 

[thx1139]

Can someone please post Gordo's twitter post if he posts? A lot of us, including myself have been blocked for no apparent reason

He was already saying yesterday that his 188K is a disappointing number because 188K isnt the capacity at Fremont and Shanghai. He said that Q4 was disappointment because capacity at plants is 262K (his number). So I suspect he will do the same. He will also cherry pick some of the European nations where sales were down. Already see him using Netherlands numbers

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Sure, 185K deliveries is pretty impressive, but Mach-E sold about 6000 over that same period. Competition is clearly killing Tesla.

 

[Curt Renz]

MarketWatch - hour ago: Tesla "drop the mic" moment

Excerpt:

Tesla “yet again defied the skeptics and bears,” Dan Ives with Wedbush said in a note Friday.

The strength in the quarter was driven by Model 3 and Model Y sales, he said. Wall Street had braced for the impact of shortages on Tesla sales, making the above-expectations sales “a massive homerun in the eyes of the bulls,” Ives said.

 

[nativewolf]

Not sure how any legit analyst or tesla bull can't figure out that 1 million for 2021 has a very high probability percentage at this point. When you factor in the headwinds for this quarter,

- No S/X production
- 2 down days of Fremont production due to Giga press fire
- 3-4 down days of Fremont Model 3 production due to parts shortage
- Chinese New Year taking away about 4-5 days of production
- Q1 has 1(or is it 2) less production days than any other quarter

If all those headwinds weren't there, this would have been a 205-210k production quarter. As long as S/X ramps up decently in Q2 (I'm thinking 12-15 P/D), then 215-220k should be in the cards for total P/D for Q2.

With the caveat that Tesla has to keep executing of course. But I mean come on.....look at how they just executed this quarter

Of course people mentioned the Chinese New Year as a reason for decreased production confuse the heck out of me. As if it never happened before and won't happen again. Oh..this year the Christmas shut production in Freemont....Oh...we won't have a leap day this year so production will be less....etc etc. WTF do people write things like that for? New Year is a huge deal in most East Asian countries and always has and always will shut down production for several days. No different this year than last year or next year.

 

[henchman24]

Not sure how any legit analyst or tesla bull can't figure out that 1 million for 2021 has a very high probability percentage at this point. When you factor in the headwinds for this quarter,

- No S/X production
- 2 down days of Fremont production due to Giga press fire
- 3-4 down days of Fremont Model 3 production due to parts shortage
- Chinese New Year taking away about 4-5 days of production
- Q1 has 1(or is it 2) less production days than any other quarter

If all those headwinds weren't there, this would have been a 205-210k production quarter. As long as S/X ramps up decently in Q2 (I'm thinking 12-15 P/D), then 215-220k should be in the cards for total P/D for Q2.

With the caveat that Tesla has to keep executing of course. But I mean come on.....look at how they just executed this quarter

The only way I really see under 900k at this point, is if Berlin and Austin don't come online at all and there are some issues. Even low production in Q3 and moderate in Q4 from Berlin/Austin should make 1+m attainable. 1.1-1.2 could be in the sights.

 

[Pezpunk]

Of course people mentioned the Chinese New Year as a reason for decreased production confuse the heck out of me. As if it never happened before and won't happen again. Oh..this year the Christmas shut production in Freemont....Oh...we won't have a leap day this year so production will be less....etc etc. WTF do people write things like that for? New Year is a huge deal in most East Asian countries and always has and always will shut down production for several days. No different this year than last year or next year.

and it impacts deliveries every Q1. i don't understand your point.

 

[PV4EV]

To celebrate this win I'm posting the results of my consultations about whether I can actually follow through with that Plaid + reservation. As you can see things have changed often this year. Jan - April 2021.
View attachment 650281

I had the same dilemma on Battery day. When in doubt I always reach for the 8 Ball, and it was suspiciously conclusive. Weird ehh ?

.

 

[Christine69420]

Strange then that we've seen such big gains against the EUR this last month we've been discussing it. And +.15% today too. Weird.

The EUR has been down against the Norwegian krone (NOK) too. And the USD/NOK hasn't moved much.

 

[geometro]

But, but the competition is coming... Mach-E, VW, Nio. Just wait.

When will these clowns get the fact that Tesla is competing only with itself!