Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chenkers]

Maybe a little OT but still relevant to TSLA given the amount of FUD directed at Elon in particular.

I noticed this link to a survey of 30,400 Americans opinions of Elon Musk in a @KarenRei/Nafnlaus tweet. Shows that even a massive amount of FUD can have limited impact.
The Musk factor What do Americans think of the Tesla guy? - Piplsay

 

[Knightshade]

An easier solution is add a button to report ICEing to Tesla uploading WebCam footage...

Tesla just needs to forward the footage to local law enforcement, who can simply send the offender a fine via mail.

AI could extract number plate details and photographic evidence from the video footage before sending to law enforcement.
In turn law enforcement can have a fully automated infringement processing system..
Law enforcement can decide if they want to tow / impound the cars of repeat offenders...

Sadly, the vast majority of US states it's not even illegal to ICE a charger. Even in the handful of states where it is, towing is only authorized in 3 of em last I checked... (CA, IL, MA)

 

[MC3OZ]

Sadly, the vast majority of US states it's not even illegal to ICE a charger. Even in the handful of states where it is, towing is only authorized in 3 of em last I checked... (CA, IL, MA)

The first step is lobbying to the laws changed, then displaying appropriate warning messages at Superchargers.

 

[The Accountant]

Wonder if the stock is going to get slammed tomorrow. The fake Giga Berlin delay and the fake China government hit piece seem awfully coincidental in their timing.....right as the stock gets back above key technical levels......

Psst...psst I just completed my Q2 2021 financial forecast and all I can say is "wow". Will publish tomorrow. If the stock is down tomorrow, find that loose change in the couch....let's keep this between us otherwise the bear trap may prematurely fall apart.

 

[Paul_SF]

How efficient is a high tech village with the factories inside?

 

[gabeincal]

I just did my flight over at Fremont. Probably the last one I'm doing on a Sunday - the factory is so quiet, I started to become a little worried hahaha

The delivery lot was empty and closed, the employee parking lots were about 10-20% occupied. The good news is that Roadrunner's parking lot was full to the brim with cars, so there is something going on there.

I feel that it is my responsibility as an investor to NOT upload the video that I took today to avoid FUD. I did see, however, Semi and a refresh S on the track - probably parked there for the show. I will keep that footage and merge it with a busy factory day perhaps Tuesday this week. There is some suspension testing nearby the semi also, based on the humps that were installed on the road.

Perhaps it is an expanded sensor suite on the top windshield of the semi?



Cheers

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Maybe a little OT but still relevant to TSLA given the amount of FUD directed at Elon in particular.

I noticed this link to a survey of 30,400 Americans opinions of Elon Musk in a @KarenRei/Nafnlaus tweet. Shows that even a massive amount of FUD can have limited impact.
The Musk factor What do Americans think of the Tesla guy? - Piplsay

View attachment 659031

18% of Americans do not know who Elon Musk is. I guess that's a larger number than I would have guessed.

 

[Robertj]

Car Fires BMWi 3 name does not even make the headline in our New Zealand paper

It was a fiery end to what should have been a leisurely Sunday drive, after a hybrid vehicle was burnt to the ground alongside the state highway between Nelson and Blenheim.
Occupants' lucky escape as vehicle destroyed in highway blaze

 

[Robertj]

Same paper The headline then changes , when a non local reporter is published to get clicks

Ex Bloomberg

OPINION: If Tesla wants to live up to its market valuation it needs to start appealing to more than just its fans.
Tesla can't just keep preaching to the converted

 

[StealthP3D]

Same paper The headline then changes , when a non local reporter is published to get clicks

Ex Bloomberg

OPINION: If Tesla wants to live up to its market valuation it needs to start appealing to more than just its fans.
Tesla can't just keep preaching to the converted

As long as the number of "converted" continues to grow faster than production, Tesla really can continue preaching to the converted.

 

[lascavarian]

Even then, there would be no cash in flow to Ford, just an accounting entry to release accrued liabilities for warranty reserves.

I have no inside info on how Ford models their business. I do know that I made a profit from warranty service. Whatever is not pulled from reserves for warranty for actual service at the end of warranty is income dollars from the customer to the bottom line.

Warranty service can be a loss if the product is poor. Reserves are real money and a quality product that exits warranty with minimal draws against reserves delivers profit.

Warranty is really a service contract (simple view) purchased by production divisions for the product they deliver to Marketing. Marketing sets pricing by simply adding the warranty into the MSRP. With every sale, deferred revenue flows in for these multi-year contracts.

I would also guess that dealers are obligated to purchase repair parts from the mothership for out of warranty repairs and this is also profitable for the mothership In most cases.

Can this save the mothership, no. But it may provide extra months to figure out how cut back and fix the business, merge, etc

 

[Chenkers]

OT but one of the more bizzare examples I've seen of a news article that would only get written because it involves a Tesla.

One of the main news organisations in Australia published an entire article today about someone leaving a note on a Tesla because it was parked just 20cm (2/3 of a foot) outside its bay at a supermarket carpark.

Angry driver slams Tesla ‘selfish’ parking in Woolies carpark

 

[Chenkers]

A little more on topic, we're starting to finally see some EV incentives being rolled out by States in Australia. The Victorian government that was copping flack for an EV road users charge, yesterday came out with a $3,000 rebate for new EV purchases plus other funding. The rebate is limited to $69k value and 20,000 rebates initially but that's enough to cover most Model 3 SR+ configurations. There's also a pledge from the new Tasmanian state government to remove sales tax on EV's ($2650 for a Model 3 SR+ and about $3200 for a Model 3 LR), plus a few reducing rego. (Btw Tesla currently has around a 2/3 EV market share in Australia). Still nothing in the way of any real incentives from our Federal government but at least we're starting to see some positive progress at state level.

 

[PeterJA]

OT but one of the more bizzare examples I've seen of a news article that would only get written because it involves a Tesla.

One of the main news organisations in Australia published an entire article today about someone leaving a note on a Tesla because it was parked just 20cm (2/3 of a foot) outside its bay at a supermarket carpark.

Angry driver slams Tesla ‘selfish’ parking in Woolies carpark

Considering the phenomenal growth and market conquest that Tesla plans this year, I suspect the FUDsters are just warming up. Expect the following headlines to flash around the globe at the speed of news servers:

Tesla driver picks nose in traffic
Tesla driver uses rude language with coal roller
Consumer Reports declares "Autopilot" is misleading because Teslas can't fly
Tesla driver caught napping in car parked at home
Elon Musk donates less than 0.1% of wealth to charity $100,000,000.00
Tesla driver gives grandmother heart attack with fart sound
Elon Musk hates puppies, kittens, and apple pie
Tesla deliveries disappoint with only 99% growth
Elon Musk wants to implant computer chips in your hamster, and shoot him to Mars

 

[CorneliusXX]

The Shanghai motor show is on at the moment and Fully Charged has put out an overview of new models coming out this year. The number of small hatches/crossovers that look like perfectly decent, good value cars is very promising. It has never been more clear that ICE is dead - I don't know who would even want to get a new ICE car in China when you see the variety of good EVs available.

Hopefully we will see the Model 2 there next year.

Sandy Munro is right - Tesla has no competition, but when it does it will be Chinese.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Psst...psst I just completed my Q2 2021 financial forecast and all I can say is "wow". Will publish tomorrow. If the stock is down tomorrow, find that loose change in the couch....let's keep this between us otherwise the bear trap may prematurely fall apart.

I haven't seen this posted, apologies if someone else has

Tesla Economist / "What Does Q1 Tell Us Tesla's Business is Really Worth Now, if we Remove the Cost of Growth?" (P/E of 50 now, 10 later)

(timestamp to effects of the investment/growth, go earlier for full argument, 14 minutes play)

His argument is that if you stop investment now, what P/E ratio do you get based on current situation? His conclusion is around P/E of 50 now,

If you add in the growth aspects - new models energy etc, he suggests a P/E of 10 using that expanded level of revenue

I just wondered about others' opinions, especially @The Accountant

 

[soundart2]

Selling my first few TSLA shares ever......to fund a $1000/$1300 Jun 2023 call spread.

I'll be rooting for you... and me!

 

[DutchDriver]

How likely would it be for Tesla to invest in a chip supplier? Or set up a factory for the most critical chips? Even if it costs a year to do something like that, in the long run it could be a possitive investment when you look at the surge of these kind of production lines.

 

[Singuy]

How likely would it be for Tesla to invest in a chip supplier? Or set up a factory for the most critical chips? Even if it costs a year to do something like that, in the long run it could be a possitive investment when you look at the surge of these kind of production lines.

-50%

It cost 5 giga factories to build a fab and a poor use of capital when it's not your specialty as node process competitiveness is key to success. Fabs are one of the few worlds greatest money pits.

 

[st_lopes]

I have no inside info on how Ford models their business. I do know that I made a profit from warranty service. Whatever is not pulled from reserves for warranty for actual service at the end of warranty is income dollars from the customer to the bottom line.

Warranty service can be a loss if the product is poor. Reserves are real money and a quality product that exits warranty with minimal draws against reserves delivers profit.

Warranty is really a service contract (simple view) purchased by production divisions for the product they deliver to Marketing. Marketing sets pricing by simply adding the warranty into the MSRP. With every sale, deferred revenue flows in for these multi-year contracts.

I would also guess that dealers are obligated to purchase repair parts from the mothership for out of warranty repairs and this is also profitable for the mothership In most cases.

Can this save the mothership, no. But it may provide extra months to figure out how cut back and fix the business, merge, etc

That’s just accounting. Ford receives no new inflow of money for providing service under warranty. They are paying for labor and parts that they don’t own or produce.

They get to release warranty reserves if they overestimated how much warranty expense they were going to incur (same way they would write up additional expenses if they underestimated it).

That isn’t “real” profit in the sense that you can’t keep your business afloat off of releasing warranty reserves. You need new inflows of cash (from new sales). It’s comparable to deferred revenue (a part of every sale is set aside to satisfy warranty expenses). However, you only realize a “benefit” if your actual warranty expenses come in below the amount you set aside on initial sale. Same way you only realize the deferred revenue once the underlying obligation is fulfilled (similar to recognizing that final chunk of FSD revenue, doing so brings in no new cash to Tesla, they already received the cash up front).